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We have 2 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
Toulouse vs Caen – 10pts stake – Caen are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.57, a 9.5% gap in % terms.
Caen have a 65pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (476 to 411) – Both teams are on pretty poor runs at the moment, although Caen look in way more danger, having taken two points from their last eight games to slide into the Ligue 1 relegation zone. They also have a very poor 2-4-11 away record (13-27, -14 GD). So why do we rate their chances to pick up an unlikely away win here?
Toulouse’s ratings, both home and away continue to be very poor and they rank 20th and last by Adjusted Home TR:
Toulouse haven’t won in four and have had just 30 shots on target and 5 goals in their last ten games, conceding 47 and 11 respectively. Those aren’t precursors to a great run of form by any stretch and until they start showing they can match their opponents in this regard, the model’s going to go against them.
Guingamp vs Dijon – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 2.13 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.77, a 9.5% gap in % terms.
Guingamp have a 108pt Real TR advantage for this game (539 to 431) – this is a classic good side at home, bad side away match-up. The hosts have a 10-3-4 (23-13, +10 GD) record at home (although let us down when tipped at home to St Etienne last weekend). Dijon have a 1-6-10 (19-33, -14 GD) record on the road.
With a home Adjusted TR of 611, Guingamp rank 6th in Ligue 1:
And that Adjusted Home/Away TR split of +217.9 ranks 2nd in Ligue 1 over the last 20 games. What does that tell us? Guingamp are far better at home than they are away and the difference between performances home and away is very wide in comparison to the rest of the division.
Lorient vs Angers – 10pts stake – Angers are currently 3.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.88, a 6.9% gap in % terms.
Angers have a 30pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (503 to 473) – Having won five of six through February and March, Les Angevins have now lost their last five and are fortunate for the points collected earlier in the spring. But there is a mitigating factor to this poor run – they have played Lyon, PSG and Monaco during this stretch. They now face a far weaker side in the shape of Lorient, who looked doomed a couple of months ago but who have won four out of their last six to climb out of the bottom three.
As you can see, Angers have been very much one of our under-performers this season; they sit 5th by Adjusted TR over the past 20 games yet are 14th in Ligue 1. Seeing a result this week that reflects their underlying metrics with us might help us make some profit from them.
Marseille vs Nice – 10pts stake – Marseille are currently 1.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.72, a 6.1% gap in % terms.
Marseille have a 121pt Real TR advantage for this one (588 to 467) – We spoke above about Angers being under-performers – Nice on the other hand are very much over-performers. Their ratings with us have been significantly below where we’d expect a team who have spent much of this campaign challenging for the title, which can occasionally happen with pacy teams who like to play on the counter attack (Leicester last term), or hardened defensive battlers (Atletico Madrid). That said, we do think that the best way to guarantee long term success (or at least try to) is to regularly dominate games and create more chances than their opponents. It’s not rocket science…
Marseille have been typically strong at home this term with a 11-4-2 record (30-12, +18 GD). They have only tasted defeat at the Stade Velodrome against Monaco and PSG, where they were thrashed on both occasions. But Nice have scored 20 away goals to PSG’s 36 and Monaco’s 38 and it’s difficult to see them doing the same as those two sides. Additionally, Nice have averaged only 462 in their last six away games in individual game Team Rating – they’re simply not dominating teams away from home as of late:
Given this, we think Marseille are a marginal value bet to get the better of their near neighbours this weekend.