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We have 5 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
Hertha Berlin vs RB Leipzig – 100pts stake – Hertha are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 25.6% gap in implied % terms.
Hertha have a 54pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (544 to 490) – Hertha have generally done pretty well for us when being tipped this season and have a impressive home record of 12-1-2 (25-9, +16 GD) at the Olympiastadion. Leipzig have stumbled a little bit recently, drawing at Schalke and at home to Ingolstadt. Their Adjusted Away TR is also surprisingly poor:
They have a lower individual game Team Rating than their opponents in five of their previous seven away games, as can be seen below. They were comfortably outclassed at Bayern and Dortmund, and Hertha are equally as strong at home:
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg – 50pts stake – Eintracht Frankfurt are currently 2.71 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.78, a 19.4% gap in implied % terms.
Frankfurt have a 88pt Real TR advantage coming into this one (552 to 464) – Frankfurt have been on a fairly dire run as of late and unsurprisingly lost at high-flying Hoffenheim last weekend. However, they have achieved higher individual game Team Ratings than their opponents in their last four home Bundesliga fixtures:
In these games they achieved 19 shots on target to their opponents’ 9 and 58 shots to their opponents’ 30, yet won one and drew three of these games. They’re playing well at home, just not converting their chances. We’d expect teams that dominant at home for their conversion rate to regress upwards, so we can say with a degree of confidence that they should put away more of their chances soon.
Wolfsburg meanwhile, were thumped 6-0 at home to Bayern at the weekend as their opponents sealed the title. Wolfsburg’s last title was relatively recently back in 2009, but this season could be a disastrous one as they sit in the middle of a relegation dogfight. They have more to play for than their opponents this weekend, but do they have the quality to beat a Frankfurt team whose performances have been far better at home than on the road this season?
Freiburg vs Schalke – 50pts stake – Freiburg are currently 3.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 15.2% gap in implied % terms.
Freiburg have a 30pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (442 to 472) – Freiburg look big here against a Schalke team whose inconsistency has been maddening this season. Freiburg have had a relatively decent home record this season (9-1-5, 20-23, -3 GD) and have beaten Leverkusen & Mainz in their previous two home fixtures. Despite having a very low Adjusted Home TR which ranks 17th in the Bundesliga, it’s still better than Schalke’s away mark:
Schalke have a 3-4-8 away record in the Bundesliga this season, with wins over Leverkusen, Mainz and Wolfsburg. They’ve failed to beat anyone in the top half of the table away from home this season.
Hamburg vs Mainz – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 2.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.88, a 11.5% gap in implied % terms.
Hamburg have a 60pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (542 to 482) – This is a huge game in the relegation picture in the Bundesliga, with both sides on 33pts, potentially in line to play in a relegation playoff tie against a side from the second division. According to our metrics, Hamburg have played well recently and their team ratings have been climbing week by week – but crucially, their results haven’t been so good. Four defeats in their last five have seen them fall back in the pack:
They’ve averaged 418 in their last five games in individual game Team Rating – but they have had to play Dortmund, Hoffenheim and a fast improving Werder Bremen side during this stretch. They’ve also got a decent 7-3-5 home record this season (19-24, -5 GD) for a team fighting against relegation.
Mainz, on the other hand, have a pretty strong Adjusted TR themselves and have shown some pluck in beating Hertha and drawing at Bayern recently. These two teams’ Adjusted TR’s compared to their league positions suggest both teams are under-performers – their performances are more typical of teams higher up the table: