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We have 5 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Thursday 27th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
Guingamp vs St Etienne – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 2.46 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.76, a 16.3% gap in % terms.
Guingamp have a 112pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (547 to 435) – We tipped Guingamp last weekend at Lille and it didn’t go well as they lost 3-0. But they have been a far more impressive side at home this season, where they can boast a 10-3-3 record (23-11, +12 GD) in Ligue 1. This is backed up by their Adjusted Home TR over their past 20 games, which is ranked 5th in the division:
St Etienne meanwhile have become big over-performers this season. Les Verts sit 7th in Ligue 1, but 14th on Adjusted TR. They have struggled recently, winning just one of their previous eight in the league:
Angers vs Lyon – 10pts stake – Angers are currently 3.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 14.8% gap in % terms.
Angers have a 11pt Real TR advantage entering this game (580 to 569) – Angers were another team we tipped last week who failed to win (although at least they performed creditably in losing 3-2 at Dijon). However, their performances at home have been very good this season, as can be seen by their Adjusted Home TR stat. In this respect, they’re actually quite similar to Guingamp:
Their Home/Away split of +263.1 is ranked 1st in Ligue 1 – this means that they have the biggest gap of any side in the division between their home and away performances. If this was a negative number, this would mean that their away performances are better than their home performances (this is obviously a fairly rare occurrence).
Lyon meanwhile, have been in shaky form recently and sustained a shock 1-4 defeat at home to Lorient before losing at home to Monaco. Their performances up until then had been pretty good according to our metrics and they still rank 3rd on overall Adjusted TR over the past 20 games.
Metz vs Nancy – 10pts stake – Metz are currently 2.62 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.99, a 12% gap in % terms.
Metz have a 62pt Real TR advantage for this one (446 to 384) – Nancy have only won once in their last twelve, whilst Metz haven’t won in five as two teams struggling against relegation face off here. Nancy have been on a terrible run of form since beating Nantes in early February, which was their last away victory. Their Adjusted Away TR ranks as the worst in Ligue 1:
Metz meanwhile, appear to be a far stronger side at home than away. This is becoming a bit of a theme in the course of this preview:
Montpellier vs Lille – 10pts stake – Montpellier are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.84, a 8.9% gap in % terms.
Montpellier have a 93pt Real TR advantage heading into this match (569 to 476) – Montpellier have come up on our radar quite frequently over the last couple of months or so and appear again this weekend. They had beaten Caen and Lorient when tipped by us before unsurprisingly succumbing 2-0 to PSG last time out. They have a decent home record (8-5-4, 27-16, +11 GD) and their Adjusted TR has been fairly impressive recently, ranking 5th on the 20 game rolling average:
Lille have been very inconsistent this season and have struggled to put together any kind of consistent run of form. They’ve averaged 500 in individual game Team Rating over the past six games, which is as average as you can get.