English Premier League – 22nd-23rd April ’17 Fixtures


For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

West Ham vs Everton – 10pts stake – West Ham are currently 3.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.53, a 9.2% gap in % terms.

West Ham have a 51pt Real TR deficit entering this game (516 to 567) – West Ham‘s form continues to be choppy, but we have noted an improvement in performances at home recently. They deserved to beat West Brom and drew. They deserved results against Leicester and Chelsea at home and lost both. And they then comfortably dominated against Swansea at home but only triumphed 1-0. West Ham have had more shots than their opponents in each of their last four home league games and yet only won once, a stat that says they’ve been unlucky and could quite easily have picked up more points. This all helps them to a fairly decent average home TR:

Everton meanwhile, have been great at home, but have lacked a bit of form on the road this season (4-5-7, 19-24, -5 GD) away from Goodison Park. They’ve scored lower individual game Team Ratings in each of their last five away games, although that run has included Spurs, Liverpool and United, so it’s slightly difficult to quite gauge where they’re at right now:

It’s maybe not the most obvious pick, but this is the only recommended bet the model’s come up with for this coming weekend’s abbreviated Premier League programme (there are only six Premier League games this weekend due to the FA Cup). What do you think?

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