19th-21st May Weekend Preview – Simple Tips Table

Game Team League Home/Away Date Win Odds Recommended bet (in points)
Ein Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig Ein Frankfurt Bundesliga Home 20/05/17 4 50.00
Hamburg vs Wolfsburg Hamburg Bundesliga Home 20/05/17 2.67 10.00
Ingolstadt vs Schalke 04 Ingolstadt Bundesliga Home 20/05/17 2.7 10.00
Angers vs Montpellier Montpellier Ligue 1 Away 20/05/17 3.6 100.00
Sp Gijon vs Betis Betis Primera Division Away 20/05/17 3 10.00
Napoli vs Fiorentina Fiorentina Serie A Away 20/05/17 12 50.00
Burnley vs West Ham West Ham Premier League Away 21/05/17 3.5 10.00
Swansea vs West Brom Swansea Premier League Home 21/05/17 2.1 10.00
Ath Madrid vs Ath Bilbao Ath Madrid Primera Division Home 21/05/17 2.1 10.00
Valencia vs Villarreal Valencia Primera Division Home 21/05/17 3.1 50.00
Partick vs Aberdeen Aberdeen Scottish Premiership Away 21/05/17 1.88 10.00
St Johnstone vs Rangers Rangers Scottish Premiership Away 21/05/17 2.3 10.00
Empoli vs Atalanta Atalanta Serie A Away 21/05/17 3.2 100.00
Lazio vs Inter Inter Serie A Away 21/05/17 3.5 10.00
Milan vs Bologna Bologna Serie A Away 21/05/17 9 50.00

19th-21st May Weekend Preview – All Tips

Below is a summary of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 19th May – Sunday 21st May). There are no tips for Monday 22nd this weekend. This post was originally published on Friday 19th May at 3.15pm UK time. All odds were taken from Oddschecker on Thursday 18th May with the exception of the Premier League & SPL for which odds were taken on Friday 19th May. Odds may have changed since.

There are 6 home tips in all this weekend and 9 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 2.78 and the away tips at an average of 4.66.

Want something easier to digest and can’t get on Google Drive? Check out our 19th-21st May Weekend Preview – Simple Tips Table.

Short Prices – these are the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Aberdeen
  • Swansea
  • Atletico Madrid
  • Rangers
  • Hamburg
  • Ingolstadt
  • Real Betis
  • Valencia
  • Atalanta
  • West Ham

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Montpellier
  • Atalanta
  • Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Valencia
  • Bologna
  • Fiorentina
  • Swansea
  • Inter Milan
  • West Ham
  • Hamburg

The top two on that list are 100pt recommended stakes, the next four are 50pt stakes, the rest are 10pt stakes.

I have uploaded the below full preview file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

19th-21st May Weekend PREVIEW

Happy betting!

12th-14th May Weekend Review

Below is a review of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 12th May – Sunday 14th May). There were no tips for Monday 15th this weekend. This post was originally published on Tuesday 15th May at 8.30pm UK time. All odds were taken from Oddschecker on Tuesday 9th May with the exception of the Premier League for which odds were taken on Thursday 11th May.

There were 21 home tips in all this weekend and 6 away tips. The home tips were at an average of 3.93 and the away tips at an average of 4.96.

FINAL REVIEW – 6/27 tips won. This led to a 176 point loss, which is a –32% yield on a total stake of 550pts this weekend.

SINCE LAUNCH – 241/727 tips won, 9.6 point profit, which is a +0.1% yield on a total stake of 8,184 points.

WHAT HAPPENED – 6/27 is a slightly poorer than expected strike rate and we were just missing the one slightly longer shot we needed to make a profit. Augsburg (8’s, 50 points stake, 350pt potential profit) drew 1-1 at home to Dortmund, whilst Malaga (7’s, 50 point stake, 300pt potential profit) drew 2-2 at Real Sociedad.

Short Prices – these were the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration. 3/10 won this weekend.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Osasuna
  • – WIN

  • Sampdoria
  • – LOSS

  • Eibar
  • – LOSS

  • Dijon
  • – WIN

  • Atalanta
  • – LOSS

  • Espanyol
  • – LOSS

  • Freiburg
  • – LOSS

  • Hamilton
  • – LOSS

  • Roma
  • – WIN

  • Metz
  • – LOSS

Model Favourites – these were the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan. 1/10 won this weekend.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Augsburg
  • – LOSS

  • Eibar
  • – LOSS

  • Stoke
  • – LOSS

  • West Ham
  • – LOSS

  • Aberdeen
  • – LOSS

  • Malaga
  • – LOSS

  • Rennes
  • – WIN

  • Darmstadt
  • – LOSS

  • Sampdoria
  • – LOSS

  • Atalanta
  • – LOSS

I have uploaded the below full review file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

12th-14th May Weekend REVIEW

12th-14th May Weekend Preview – Simple Tips Table

Game Team League Home/Away Date Win Odds Recommended bet (in points)
Aberdeen vs Celtic Aberdeen Scottish Premiership Home 12/05/17 5.75 50.00
Augsburg vs Dortmund Augsburg Bundesliga Home 13/05/17 8 50.00
Darmstadt vs Hertha Darmstadt Bundesliga Home 13/05/17 3.96 10.00
Freiburg vs Ingolstadt Freiburg Bundesliga Home 13/05/17 2.45 10.00
RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich RB Leipzig Bundesliga Home 13/05/17 4.4 10.00
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim Werder Bremen Bundesliga Home 13/05/17 2.95 10.00
Bastia vs Lorient Bastia Ligue 1 Home 13/05/17 2.8 10.00
Caen vs Rennes Rennes Ligue 1 Away 13/05/17 4.55 50.00
Dijon vs Nancy Dijon Ligue 1 Home 13/05/17 2.2 10.00
Metz vs Toulouse Metz Ligue 1 Home 13/05/17 2.6 10.00
Montpellier vs Lyon Montpellier Ligue 1 Home 13/05/17 3.75 10.00
Nice vs Angers Angers Ligue 1 Away 13/05/17 5.2 10.00
St Etienne vs Paris SG St Etienne Ligue 1 Home 13/05/17 12 10.00
Stoke vs Arsenal Stoke Premier League Home 13/05/17 5 50.00
Espanol vs Valencia Espanol Primera Division Home 13/05/17 2.4 10.00
Osasuna vs Granada Osasuna Primera Division Home 13/05/17 1.9 10.00
Dundee vs Ross County Ross County Scottish Premiership Away 13/05/17 2.95 10.00
Hamilton vs Motherwell Hamilton Scottish Premiership Home 13/05/17 2.5 10.00
St Johnstone vs Partick Partick Scottish Premiership Away 13/05/17 3.45 10.00
Atalanta vs Milan Atalanta Serie A Home 13/05/17 2.2 10.00
West Ham vs Liverpool West Ham Premier League Home 14/05/17 5.25 50.00
Eibar vs Sp Gijon Eibar Primera Division Home 14/05/17 2.15 50.00
Sociedad vs Malaga Malaga Primera Division Away 14/05/17 7 50.00
Villarreal vs La Coruna La Coruna Primera Division Away 14/05/17 6.6 10.00
Roma vs Juventus Roma Serie A Home 14/05/17 2.55 10.00
Sampdoria vs Chievo Sampdoria Serie A Home 14/05/17 1.95 10.00
Torino vs Napoli Torino Serie A Home 14/05/17 5.8 10.00

12th-14th May Weekend Preview – All Tips

Below is a summary of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 12th May – Sunday 14th May). There are no tips for Monday 15th this weekend. This post was originally published on Thursday 11th May at 9.30pm UK time. All odds were taken from Oddschecker on Tuesday 9th May with the exception of the Premier League for which odds were taken on Thursday 11th May. Odds may have changed since.

There are 21 home tips in all this weekend and 6 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.93 and the away tips at an average of 4.96.

Want something easier to digest and can’t get on Google Drive? Check out our 12th-14th May Weekend Preview – Simple Tips Table.

Short Prices – these are the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

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These selections are this weekend:

  • Osasuna
  • Sampdoria
  • Eibar
  • Dijon
  • Atalanta
  • Espanyol
  • Freiburg
  • Hamilton
  • Roma
  • Metz

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Augsburg
  • Eibar
  • Stoke
  • West Ham
  • Aberdeen
  • Malaga
  • Rennes
  • Darmstadt
  • Sampdoria
  • Atalanta

The top seven on that list are 50pt recommended stakes, no 100pt stakes this weekend.

I have uploaded the below full preview file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

12th-14th May Weekend PREVIEW

Happy betting!

5th-8th May Weekend Review

Below is a review of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 5th May – Monday 8th May). This post was originally published on Tuesday 9th May at 10am UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair on Tuesday 2nd May.

There were 19 home tips in all this weekend and 18 away tips. The home tips were at an average of 4.46 and the away tips at an average of 7.1. These averages are somewhat distorted through Cagliari being tipped at 29’s and Granada being tipped at 26’s.

FINAL REVIEW – 9/37 tips won. This led to a 342.6 point profit, which is a +36.1% yield on a total stake of 950pts this weekend.

SINCE LAUNCH – 235/700 tips won, 130.6 point profit, which is a +1.7% yield on a total stake of 7,845 points.

WHAT HAPPENED – Fortunately we managed to strike gold on a couple of big price, big stake tips – Alaves were a 100pt tip at 5.4 and they beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0. West Ham were a 50pt tip at 8’s and they beat West Ham 1-0 with our first tip of the weekend on Friday night.

Short Prices – these were the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration. 3/10 won. Ouch.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Juventus
  • – LOSS

  • Inter
  • – LOSS

  • Marseille
  • – WIN

  • Arsenal
  • – WIN

  • Deportivo La Coruna
  • – LOSS

  • Guingamp
  • – WIN

  • Burnley
  • – LOSS

  • Huddersfield
  • – LOSS

  • Fiorentina
  • – LOSS

  • Hamburg
  • – LOSS

Model Favourites – these were the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan. 3/10 won this weekend.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Hertha Berlin
  • – LOSS

  • Alaves
  • – WIN

  • Eintracht Frankfurt
  • – LOSS

  • QPR
  • – LOSS

  • West Ham
  • – WIN

  • Huddersfield
  • – LOSS

  • Wigan
  • – LOSS

  • Las Palmas
  • – LOSS

  • Udinese
  • – LOSS

  • Freiburg
  • – WIN

The top two on that list were 100pt recommended stakes, the rest were 50pt recommended stakes.

I have uploaded the below full review file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

5th-8th May Weekend REVIEW

5th-8th May Simple Tips Table – All Tips

Game Team League Home/Away Date Win Odds Recommended bet (in points)
West Ham vs Tottenham West Ham Premier League Home 05/05/17 8.00 50.00
Dortmund vs Hoffenheim Hoffenheim Bundesliga Away 06/05/17 6.00 10.00
Ein Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg Ein Frankfurt Bundesliga Home 06/05/17 2.71 50.00
Hertha vs RB Leipzig Hertha Bundesliga Home 06/05/17 3.70 100.00
Ingolstadt vs Leverkusen Ingolstadt Bundesliga Home 06/05/17 2.62 10.00
Colchester vs Yeovil Yeovil League Two Away 06/05/17 5.25 10.00
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Crawley Town League Two Home 06/05/17 4.50 10.00
Stevenage vs Accrington Accrington League Two Away 06/05/17 4.40 10.00
Guingamp vs Dijon Guingamp Ligue 1 Home 06/05/17 2.13 10.00
Lorient vs Angers Angers Ligue 1 Away 06/05/17 3.60 10.00
Toulouse vs Caen Caen Ligue 1 Away 06/05/17 3.40 10.00
Burnley vs West Brom Burnley Premier League Home 06/05/17 2.25 10.00
Leicester vs Watford Watford Premier League Away 06/05/17 6.50 10.00
Ath Madrid vs Eibar Eibar Primera Division Away 06/05/17 15.00 10.00
Granada vs Real Madrid Granada Primera Division Home 06/05/17 26.00 10.00
Sp Gijon vs Las Palmas Las Palmas Primera Division Away 06/05/17 5.50 50.00
Inverness C vs Hamilton Hamilton Scottish Premiership Away 06/05/17 3.75 10.00
Motherwell vs Ross County Ross County Scottish Premiership Away 06/05/17 2.66 10.00
Juventus vs Torino Juventus Serie A Home 06/05/17 1.50 10.00
Napoli vs Cagliari Cagliari Serie A Away 06/05/17 29.00 10.00
Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Freiburg Bundesliga Home 07/05/17 3.55 50.00
Hamburg vs Mainz Hamburg Bundesliga Home 07/05/17 2.40 10.00
Huddersfield vs Cardiff Huddersfield Championship Home 07/05/17 2.25 50.00
Norwich vs QPR QPR Championship Away 07/05/17 5.80 50.00
Wigan vs Leeds Wigan Championship Home 07/05/17 3.30 50.00
Marseille vs Nice Marseille Ligue 1 Home 07/05/17 1.92 10.00
Arsenal vs Man United Arsenal Premier League Home 07/05/17 2.00 10.00
Alaves vs Ath Bilbao Alaves Primera Division Home 07/05/17 5.40 100.00
La Coruna vs Espanol La Coruna Primera Division Home 07/05/17 2.07 10.00
Malaga vs Celta Celta Primera Division Away 07/05/17 7.50 10.00
Hearts vs Aberdeen Hearts Scottish Premiership Home 07/05/17 3.50 10.00
Chievo vs Palermo Palermo Serie A Away 07/05/17 6.10 50.00
Genoa vs Inter Inter Serie A Away 07/05/17 1.75 10.00
Lazio vs Sampdoria Sampdoria Serie A Away 07/05/17 13.50 10.00
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Fiorentina Serie A Away 07/05/17 2.27 10.00
Udinese vs Atalanta Udinese Serie A Home 07/05/17 5.00 50.00
Leganes vs Betis Betis Primera Division Away 08/05/17 5.90 50.00

5th-8th May Weekend Preview – All Tips

Below is a summary of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 5th May – Monday 8th May). This post was originally published on Friday 5th May at 10.40am UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair on Tuesday 2nd May. Odds may have changed since.

There are 19 home tips in all this weekend and 18 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 4.46 and the away tips at an average of 7.1. These averages are somewhat distorted through Cagliari being tipped at 29’s and Granada being tipped at 26’s.

All individual league analysis articles have been published – just look on the left sidebar or at the bottom of the page if you’re on mobile/tablet. Here’s our Premier League preview, for example.

Want something easier to digest and can’t get on Google Drive? Check out our 5th-8th May Weekend Preview – Simple Tips Table.

Short Prices – these are the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Juventus
  • Inter
  • Marseille
  • Arsenal
  • Deportivo La Coruna
  • Guingamp
  • Burnley
  • Huddersfield
  • Fiorentina
  • Hamburg

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Hertha Berlin
  • Alaves
  • Eintracht Frankfurt
  • QPR
  • West Ham
  • Huddersfield
  • Wigan
  • Las Palmas
  • Udinese
  • Freiburg

The top two on that list are 100pt recommended stakes, the rest are 50pt recommended stakes.

I have uploaded the below full preview file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

5th-8th May Weekend PREVIEW

Please let me know if you require any more info or analysis on any of the games featured which was not covered on the individual article for that league this weekend. Happy betting!

French Ligue 1 – 5th-7th May ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Toulouse vs Caen – 10pts stake – Caen are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.57, a 9.5% gap in % terms.

Caen have a 65pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (476 to 411) – Both teams are on pretty poor runs at the moment, although Caen look in way more danger, having taken two points from their last eight games to slide into the Ligue 1 relegation zone. They also have a very poor 2-4-11 away record (13-27, -14 GD). So why do we rate their chances to pick up an unlikely away win here?

Toulouse’s ratings, both home and away continue to be very poor and they rank 20th and last by Adjusted Home TR:

Toulouse haven’t won in four and have had just 30 shots on target and 5 goals in their last ten games, conceding 47 and 11 respectively. Those aren’t precursors to a great run of form by any stretch and until they start showing they can match their opponents in this regard, the model’s going to go against them.

Guingamp vs Dijon – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 2.13 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.77, a 9.5% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 108pt Real TR advantage for this game (539 to 431) – this is a classic good side at home, bad side away match-up. The hosts have a 10-3-4 (23-13, +10 GD) record at home (although let us down when tipped at home to St Etienne last weekend). Dijon have a 1-6-10 (19-33, -14 GD) record on the road.

With a home Adjusted TR of 611, Guingamp rank 6th in Ligue 1:

And that Adjusted Home/Away TR split of +217.9 ranks 2nd in Ligue 1 over the last 20 games. What does that tell us? Guingamp are far better at home than they are away and the difference between performances home and away is very wide in comparison to the rest of the division.

Lorient vs Angers – 10pts stake – Angers are currently 3.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.88, a 6.9% gap in % terms.

Angers have a 30pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (503 to 473) – Having won five of six through February and March, Les Angevins have now lost their last five and are fortunate for the points collected earlier in the spring. But there is a mitigating factor to this poor run – they have played Lyon, PSG and Monaco during this stretch. They now face a far weaker side in the shape of Lorient, who looked doomed a couple of months ago but who have won four out of their last six to climb out of the bottom three.

As you can see, Angers have been very much one of our under-performers this season; they sit 5th by Adjusted TR over the past 20 games yet are 14th in Ligue 1. Seeing a result this week that reflects their underlying metrics with us might help us make some profit from them.

Marseille vs Nice – 10pts stake – Marseille are currently 1.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.72, a 6.1% gap in % terms.

Marseille have a 121pt Real TR advantage for this one (588 to 467) – We spoke above about Angers being under-performersNice on the other hand are very much over-performers. Their ratings with us have been significantly below where we’d expect a team who have spent much of this campaign challenging for the title, which can occasionally happen with pacy teams who like to play on the counter attack (Leicester last term), or hardened defensive battlers (Atletico Madrid). That said, we do think that the best way to guarantee long term success (or at least try to) is to regularly dominate games and create more chances than their opponents. It’s not rocket science…

Marseille have been typically strong at home this term with a 11-4-2 record (30-12, +18 GD). They have only tasted defeat at the Stade Velodrome against Monaco and PSG, where they were thrashed on both occasions. But Nice have scored 20 away goals to PSG’s 36 and Monaco’s 38 and it’s difficult to see them doing the same as those two sides. Additionally, Nice have averaged only 462 in their last six away games in individual game Team Rating – they’re simply not dominating teams away from home as of late:

Given this, we think Marseille are a marginal value bet to get the better of their near neighbours this weekend.

German Bundesliga – 5th May-7th May ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Hertha Berlin vs RB Leipzig – 100pts stake – Hertha are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 25.6% gap in implied % terms.

Hertha have a 54pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (544 to 490) – Hertha have generally done pretty well for us when being tipped this season and have a impressive home record of 12-1-2 (25-9, +16 GD) at the Olympiastadion. Leipzig have stumbled a little bit recently, drawing at Schalke and at home to Ingolstadt. Their Adjusted Away TR is also surprisingly poor:

They have a lower individual game Team Rating than their opponents in five of their previous seven away games, as can be seen below. They were comfortably outclassed at Bayern and Dortmund, and Hertha are equally as strong at home:

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg – 50pts stake – Eintracht Frankfurt are currently 2.71 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.78, a 19.4% gap in implied % terms.

Frankfurt have a 88pt Real TR advantage coming into this one (552 to 464) – Frankfurt have been on a fairly dire run as of late and unsurprisingly lost at high-flying Hoffenheim last weekend. However, they have achieved higher individual game Team Ratings than their opponents in their last four home Bundesliga fixtures:

In these games they achieved 19 shots on target to their opponents’ 9 and 58 shots to their opponents’ 30, yet won one and drew three of these games. They’re playing well at home, just not converting their chances. We’d expect teams that dominant at home for their conversion rate to regress upwards, so we can say with a degree of confidence that they should put away more of their chances soon.

Wolfsburg meanwhile, were thumped 6-0 at home to Bayern at the weekend as their opponents sealed the title. Wolfsburg’s last title was relatively recently back in 2009, but this season could be a disastrous one as they sit in the middle of a relegation dogfight. They have more to play for than their opponents this weekend, but do they have the quality to beat a Frankfurt team whose performances have been far better at home than on the road this season?

Freiburg vs Schalke – 50pts stake – Freiburg are currently 3.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 15.2% gap in implied % terms.

Freiburg have a 30pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (442 to 472) – Freiburg look big here against a Schalke team whose inconsistency has been maddening this season. Freiburg have had a relatively decent home record this season (9-1-5, 20-23, -3 GD) and have beaten Leverkusen & Mainz in their previous two home fixtures. Despite having a very low Adjusted Home TR which ranks 17th in the Bundesliga, it’s still better than Schalke’s away mark:

Schalke have a 3-4-8 away record in the Bundesliga this season, with wins over Leverkusen, Mainz and Wolfsburg. They’ve failed to beat anyone in the top half of the table away from home this season.

Hamburg vs Mainz – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 2.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.88, a 11.5% gap in implied % terms.

Hamburg have a 60pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (542 to 482) – This is a huge game in the relegation picture in the Bundesliga, with both sides on 33pts, potentially in line to play in a relegation playoff tie against a side from the second division. According to our metrics, Hamburg have played well recently and their team ratings have been climbing week by week – but crucially, their results haven’t been so good. Four defeats in their last five have seen them fall back in the pack:

They’ve averaged 418 in their last five games in individual game Team Rating – but they have had to play Dortmund, Hoffenheim and a fast improving Werder Bremen side during this stretch. They’ve also got a decent 7-3-5 home record this season (19-24, -5 GD) for a team fighting against relegation.

Mainz, on the other hand, have a pretty strong Adjusted TR themselves and have shown some pluck in beating Hertha and drawing at Bayern recently. These two teams’ Adjusted TR’s compared to their league positions suggest both teams are under-performers – their performances are more typical of teams higher up the table: