For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.
We have 3 home tips and 5 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Thursday 27th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.
Atalanta vs Juventus – 100pts stake – Atalanta are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.56, a 37.2% gap in terms (not a mis-print).
Atalanta have a 4pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (613 to 609) – This is easily the biggest divergence in model odds versus real odds in an implied percentage odds figure we’ve had yet this season. Even in backtesting over the course of 16 seasons, this would probably be one of the biggest differences between Model Odds and real odds we’ve seen. How?
Atalanta’s performances have slipped slightly recently, despite a five game unbeaten run since losing 7-1 to Inter. They had lower individual game team ratings than their opponents in matches against Roma and Bologna, yet took four points – and has time goes on if these performances displace older games where they did play well, their rolling average figures will decrease. Yet they still have a comparatively high rating, particularly at home:
Juve meanwhile, continue to roll on at the top of the table, swatting aside all-comers to maintain an eight point lead at the head of Serie A. Yet their away average rating has slipped somewhat over the last few games too as they laboured against Udinese, Samp and Napoli:
This isn’t to say there’s an issue with Juve as such – it’s just that the inputs into the model (shots, shots on target, goals and how teams convert chances and stop teams converting chances) mean that we think the teams are far more even than people would think. Atalanta have won 60% or so of their home games this season, Juventus have lost 25% or so of theirs – it’s not outrageous that the home side in this situation has a better chance of winning than the bookmakers might suggest.
Torino vs Sampdoria – 50pts stake – Samp are currently 5.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.4, a 22.5% gap in % terms.
Samp have a 23pt Real TR advantage entering this one (502 to 479) – This seems like a strange one, but Samp have come up repeatedly in our tips recently, with a rather mixed record. We tipped them when they won at Inter but they’ve since lost to Sassuolo and Crotone. They’re an inconsistent team who seem to perhaps prefer playing against the bigger sides.
Torino have been strong at home this season with their only loss being against their city rivals Juventus. But we have noted a downward trend in their home performances as of late which accentuates Samp’s chances in the eyes of our model:
Empoli vs Sassuolo – 50pts stake – Sassuolo are currently 3.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.23, a 18.2% gap in % terms.
Sassuolo have a 42pt Real TR advantage (421 to 379) – This game sees both teams approaching it in good form, with Sassuolo navigating a three game stretch against Atalanta, Samp and Napoli without defeat, whilst Empoli appear to have finally found some form in Serie A. Having beaten Fiorentina and Milan away, they’ve managed to maintain their advantage over a similarly fast-finishing Crotone in the fight to avoid relegation to Serie B.
That said, our model likes to achieve long term performance by looking at long term performance. Form comes and goes in blips but long-term performance is a better guide at predicting future results. Hopefully. Unless we’re massively wrong about everything. Who knows?
As you can see, despite recent results, Empoli still have the poorest Adjusted TR of any team in Serie A over the last 20 games. Five goals in their last three games has been a surprise – they’d previously scored just 17 goals in their first 30 Serie A games this season. Disregard the last few weeks and back Sassuolo here.
Cagliari vs Pescara – 10pts stake – Pescara are currently 5.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.97, a 14.85% gap in % terms.
Cagliari have a 23pt Real TR advantage here (428 to 405) – Pescara, 15 points from safety with five games to play are practically doomed, but we think they might just be able to hang on for another week before they have their grasping fingertips kicked off the windowledge of Nakatomi Plaza. Not a particularly in-season film reference I know.
Despite a difference between them of 24 points over the course of the season, there’s not a huge deal separating them on Average TR:
Pescara have averaged just 345 over their last six games on individual game Team Rating, but they have played some tough opponents over this stretch, including Roma, Juve and Atalanta:
Also, are you really willing to back against a team nicknamed the Dolphins? Do you want to have dolphin blood on your hands?