Italian Serie A 28th-30th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 5 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Thursday 27th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Atalanta vs Juventus – 100pts stake – Atalanta are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.56, a 37.2% gap in terms (not a mis-print).

Atalanta have a 4pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (613 to 609) – This is easily the biggest divergence in model odds versus real odds in an implied percentage odds figure we’ve had yet this season. Even in backtesting over the course of 16 seasons, this would probably be one of the biggest differences between Model Odds and real odds we’ve seen. How?

Atalanta’s performances have slipped slightly recently, despite a five game unbeaten run since losing 7-1 to Inter. They had lower individual game team ratings than their opponents in matches against Roma and Bologna, yet took four points – and has time goes on if these performances displace older games where they did play well, their rolling average figures will decrease. Yet they still have a comparatively high rating, particularly at home:

Juve meanwhile, continue to roll on at the top of the table, swatting aside all-comers to maintain an eight point lead at the head of Serie A. Yet their away average rating has slipped somewhat over the last few games too as they laboured against Udinese, Samp and Napoli:

This isn’t to say there’s an issue with Juve as such – it’s just that the inputs into the model (shots, shots on target, goals and how teams convert chances and stop teams converting chances) mean that we think the teams are far more even than people would think. Atalanta have won 60% or so of their home games this season, Juventus have lost 25% or so of theirs – it’s not outrageous that the home side in this situation has a better chance of winning than the bookmakers might suggest.

Torino vs Sampdoria – 50pts stake – Samp are currently 5.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.4, a 22.5% gap in % terms.

Samp have a 23pt Real TR advantage entering this one (502 to 479) – This seems like a strange one, but Samp have come up repeatedly in our tips recently, with a rather mixed record. We tipped them when they won at Inter but they’ve since lost to Sassuolo and Crotone. They’re an inconsistent team who seem to perhaps prefer playing against the bigger sides.

Torino have been strong at home this season with their only loss being against their city rivals Juventus. But we have noted a downward trend in their home performances as of late which accentuates Samp’s chances in the eyes of our model:

Empoli vs Sassuolo – 50pts stake – Sassuolo are currently 3.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.23, a 18.2% gap in % terms.

Sassuolo have a 42pt Real TR advantage (421 to 379) – This game sees both teams approaching it in good form, with Sassuolo navigating a three game stretch against Atalanta, Samp and Napoli without defeat, whilst Empoli appear to have finally found some form in Serie A. Having beaten Fiorentina and Milan away, they’ve managed to maintain their advantage over a similarly fast-finishing Crotone in the fight to avoid relegation to Serie B.

That said, our model likes to achieve long term performance by looking at long term performance. Form comes and goes in blips but long-term performance is a better guide at predicting future results. Hopefully. Unless we’re massively wrong about everything. Who knows?

As you can see, despite recent results, Empoli still have the poorest Adjusted TR of any team in Serie A over the last 20 games. Five goals in their last three games has been a surprise – they’d previously scored just 17 goals in their first 30 Serie A games this season. Disregard the last few weeks and back Sassuolo here.

Cagliari vs Pescara – 10pts stake – Pescara are currently 5.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.97, a 14.85% gap in % terms.

Cagliari have a 23pt Real TR advantage here (428 to 405) – Pescara, 15 points from safety with five games to play are practically doomed, but we think they might just be able to hang on for another week before they have their grasping fingertips kicked off the windowledge of Nakatomi Plaza. Not a particularly in-season film reference I know.

Despite a difference between them of 24 points over the course of the season, there’s not a huge deal separating them on Average TR:

Pescara have averaged just 345 over their last six games on individual game Team Rating, but they have played some tough opponents over this stretch, including Roma, Juve and Atalanta:

Also, are you really willing to back against a team nicknamed the Dolphins? Do you want to have dolphin blood on your hands?

28th April – 1st May Simple Tips Table – All Tips

Game Team League Home/Away Date Win Odds Recommended bet (in points)
Leverkusen vs Schalke 04 Schalke 04 Bundesliga Away 28/04/17 3.60 10.00
Cardiff vs Newcastle Cardiff Championship Home 28/04/17 3.60 10.00
Angers vs Lyon Angers Ligue 1 Home 28/04/17 3.50 10.00
Atalanta vs Juventus Atalanta Serie A Home 28/04/17 3.70 100.00
Darmstadt vs Freiburg Darmstadt Bundesliga Home 29/04/17 3.40 10.00
Mainz vs M’gladbach Mainz Bundesliga Home 29/04/17 2.20 10.00
RB Leipzig vs Ingolstadt Ingolstadt Bundesliga Away 29/04/17 7.40 10.00
Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Wolfsburg Bundesliga Home 29/04/17 8.60 10.00
Barnsley vs Burton Barnsley Championship Home 29/04/17 2.42 50.00
Birmingham vs Huddersfield Huddersfield Championship Away 29/04/17 2.82 10.00
Fulham vs Brentford Brentford Championship Away 29/04/17 6.60 10.00
QPR vs Nott’m Forest QPR Championship Home 29/04/17 2.62 50.00
Guingamp vs St Etienne Guingamp Ligue 1 Home 29/04/17 2.46 50.00
Metz vs Nancy Metz Ligue 1 Home 29/04/17 2.62 10.00
Montpellier vs Lille Montpellier Ligue 1 Home 29/04/17 2.20 10.00
Crystal Palace vs Burnley Burnley Premier League Away 29/04/17 5.30 10.00
Stoke vs West Ham West Ham Premier League Away 29/04/17 3.80 10.00
Sunderland vs Bournemouth Sunderland Premier League Home 29/04/17 3.10 10.00
Las Palmas vs Ath Madrid Las Palmas Primera Division Home 29/04/17 5.00 10.00
Hamilton vs Kilmarnock Kilmarnock Scottish Premiership Away 29/04/17 3.25 10.00
Hearts vs Partick Hearts Scottish Premiership Home 29/04/17 1.97 10.00
Rangers vs Celtic Rangers Scottish Premiership Home 29/04/17 5.00 10.00
Torino vs Sampdoria Sampdoria Serie A Away 29/04/17 5.20 50.00
Caen vs Marseille Caen Ligue 1 Home 30/04/17 3.65 10.00
Everton vs Chelsea Everton Premier League Home 30/04/17 4.00 100.00
Man United vs Swansea Man United Premier League Home 30/04/17 1.43 50.00
Tottenham vs Arsenal Tottenham Premier League Home 30/04/17 1.89 10.00
Betis vs Alaves Betis Primera Division Home 30/04/17 2.20 10.00
Celta vs Ath Bilbao Celta Primera Division Home 30/04/17 5.00 50.00
Eibar vs Leganes Eibar Primera Division Home 30/04/17 2.18 50.00
Osasuna vs La Coruna Osasuna Primera Division Home 30/04/17 3.90 10.00
Cagliari vs Pescara Pescara Serie A Away 30/04/17 5.30 10.00
Crotone vs Milan Crotone Serie A Home 30/04/17 4.30 10.00
Empoli vs Sassuolo Sassuolo Serie A Away 30/04/17 3.75 50.00
Genoa vs Chievo Chievo Serie A Away 30/04/17 5.60 10.00
Inter vs Napoli Inter Serie A Home 30/04/17 3.15 10.00
Roma vs Lazio Lazio Serie A Away 30/04/17 4.40 10.00
Watford vs Liverpool Watford Premier League Home 01/05/17 7.00 10.00
Malaga vs Sevilla Malaga Primera Division Home 01/05/17 4.10 10.00

28th April-1st May Weekend Preview – All Tips

Below is a summary of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 28th April – Monday 1st May). This post was originally published on Friday 28th April at 12.30pm UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair on Thursday 28th April, with the exception of the Premier League & La Liga, which were taken on the morning of Friday 29th April. Odds may have changed since.

There are 27 home tips in all this weekend and 12 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.53 and the away tips at an average of 4.75.

Individual league analysis articles are currently being published – just look on the left sidebar or at the bottom of the page if you’re on mobile/tablet. These will be completed by late afternoon Here’s our Ligue 1 preview, for example.

Want something easier to digest and can’t get on Google Drive? Check out our 28th April – 1st May Weekend Preview – Simple Tips Table.

Short Prices – these are the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Manchester United
  • Spurs
  • Hearts
  • Eibar
  • Real Betis
  • Mainz
  • Montpellier
  • Barnsley
  • Guingamp
  • QPR
  • Metz

There’s eleven this week as the eagle-eyed among you might have spotted. That’s because QPR & Metz were both priced at 2.62 to win their respective games.

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Atalanta
  • Everton
  • Sampdoria
  • Celta Vigo
  • QPR
  • Barnsley
  • Eibar
  • Sassuolo
  • Manchester United
  • Guingamp

The top two on the above list are 100pt recommended stakes. The eight below that are 50pt recommended stakes.

I have uploaded the below full preview file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

28th April – 1st May Weekend PREVIEW

Please let me know if you require any more info or analysis on any of the games featured which was not covered on the individual article for that league this weekend. Happy betting!

French Ligue 1 – 28th April-30th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Thursday 27th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Guingamp vs St Etienne – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 2.46 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.76, a 16.3% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 112pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (547 to 435) – We tipped Guingamp last weekend at Lille and it didn’t go well as they lost 3-0. But they have been a far more impressive side at home this season, where they can boast a 10-3-3 record (23-11, +12 GD) in Ligue 1. This is backed up by their Adjusted Home TR over their past 20 games, which is ranked 5th in the division:

St Etienne meanwhile have become big over-performers this season. Les Verts sit 7th in Ligue 1, but 14th on Adjusted TR. They have struggled recently, winning just one of their previous eight in the league:

Angers vs Lyon – 10pts stake – Angers are currently 3.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 14.8% gap in % terms.

Angers have a 11pt Real TR advantage entering this game (580 to 569) – Angers were another team we tipped last week who failed to win (although at least they performed creditably in losing 3-2 at Dijon). However, their performances at home have been very good this season, as can be seen by their Adjusted Home TR stat. In this respect, they’re actually quite similar to Guingamp:

Their Home/Away split of +263.1 is ranked 1st in Ligue 1 – this means that they have the biggest gap of any side in the division between their home and away performances. If this was a negative number, this would mean that their away performances are better than their home performances (this is obviously a fairly rare occurrence).

Lyon meanwhile, have been in shaky form recently and sustained a shock 1-4 defeat at home to Lorient before losing at home to Monaco. Their performances up until then had been pretty good according to our metrics and they still rank 3rd on overall Adjusted TR over the past 20 games.

Metz vs Nancy – 10pts stake – Metz are currently 2.62 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.99, a 12% gap in % terms.

Metz have a 62pt Real TR advantage for this one (446 to 384) – Nancy have only won once in their last twelve, whilst Metz haven’t won in five as two teams struggling against relegation face off here. Nancy have been on a terrible run of form since beating Nantes in early February, which was their last away victory. Their Adjusted Away TR ranks as the worst in Ligue 1:

Metz meanwhile, appear to be a far stronger side at home than away. This is becoming a bit of a theme in the course of this preview:

Montpellier vs Lille – 10pts stake – Montpellier are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.84, a 8.9% gap in % terms.

Montpellier have a 93pt Real TR advantage heading into this match (569 to 476) – Montpellier have come up on our radar quite frequently over the last couple of months or so and appear again this weekend. They had beaten Caen and Lorient when tipped by us before unsurprisingly succumbing 2-0 to PSG last time out. They have a decent home record (8-5-4, 27-16, +11 GD) and their Adjusted TR has been fairly impressive recently, ranking 5th on the 20 game rolling average:

Lille have been very inconsistent this season and have struggled to put together any kind of consistent run of form. They’ve averaged 500 in individual game Team Rating over the past six games, which is as average as you can get.

German Bundesliga – 28th April-30th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 27th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich – 10pts stake – Wolfsburg are currently 8.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.11, a 12.7% gap in implied % terms.

Wolfsburg have a 199pt Real TR deficit entering this game (489 to 688) – Wolfsburg haven’t been in great form recently and have won only once in their last five, when beating Ingolstadt 3-0 a couple of weeks ago. But they have shown that they’re improving at home recently, with their home TR jumping up considerably over the past few weeks:

Bayern meanwhile are rather spluttering their way over the line for yet another Bundesliga title, with back to back draws against Leverkusen and Mainz, along with a DFB Pokal defeat last night at home to familiar foes Borussia Dortmund. They could potentially win the league this weekend, but this failure to wrap things up quickly at the latter end of a season has been a common thread in recent years for them and could well continue this weekend.

Darmstadt vs Freiburg – 10pts stake – Darmstadt are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.67, a 8.1% gap in implied % terms.

Darmstadt have a 83pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (364 to 447) – Darmstadt have twice cheated death in recent weeks, hanging on for yet another week each time by beating Schalke and then winning at Hamburg. They have another chance this weekend to extend the streak against a Freiburg team that have been serious over-performers this season. Freiburg sit 6th in the Bundesliga, but just 16th on Adjusted TR:

Freiburg also have an individual game TR average over their last 7 games of just 431 and their league position belies the fact that they are evidently not a team firing on all cylinders now:

RB Leipzig vs Ingolstadt – 10pts stake – Ingolstadt are currently 7.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5, a 6.5% gap in implied % terms.

Ingolstadt have a 105pt Real TR deficit for this match (479 to 584) – Ingolstadt’s chances of avoiding the drop have lengthened considerably after back to back defeats, but we believe they may still be over-priced for this one. Their 4-1-10 away record (14-26, -12 GD) is not too bad for a team in the position they’re in and judging by our metrics, their away performances suggest they’re unlucky not to have been getting better results too:

They’ve averaged just over 440 in their last five away games as well, which certainly isn’t too bad for a team fighting relegation:

Mainz vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – 10pts stake – Mainz are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.95, a 5.7% gap in implied % terms.

Mainz have a 39pt Real TR advantage entering this encounter (508 to 469) – Five straight defeats had put Mainz in serious relegation danger but a win over Hertha followed up by a shock draw at Bayern have kept Die Nullf├╝nfer outside the drop zone. They go into this against a Gladbach side who have shipped ten goals in their last three games and whose form has been inconsistent all season. As you can see from the below looking at each side’s Adjusted TR on a 20 game rolling average, both sides appear very evenly matched, but Gladbach’s relatively weak away record (4-3-8, 16-29, -13 GD) has to be taken into account here:

21st-24th April – Weekend Review

Below is a review of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 21st April – Monday 24th April). This post was originally published on Tuesday 25th April at 11.15am UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair on Tuesday 19th April.

There were 22 home tips in all this weekend and 13 away tips. The home tips were at an average of 3.13 and the away tips at an average of 5.9.

FINAL REVIEW – 10/35 tips won. This led to a 172.1 point loss, which is a -25.7% yield on a total stake of 670pts this weekend.

SINCE LAUNCH – 214/624 tips won, 163.2 point profit, which is a +2.4% yield on a total stake of 6,852 points.

WHAT HAPPENED – Barely anything in League One, League Two, the Premier League won on the Saturday including 50pt shots such as Montpellier, Osasuna, Espanol, Port Vale…

Short Prices – these were the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration. 4/10 won this weekend.

These selections were this weekend:

  • Eintracht Frankfurt
  • – WIN

  • Sampdoria
  • – LOSS

  • Udinese
  • – WIN

  • Wolves
  • – LOSS

  • Malaga
  • – WIN

  • Huddersfield
  • – LOSS

  • Hertha Berlin
  • – WIN

  • Eibar
  • – LOSS

  • Osasuna
  • – LOSS

  • Inter Milan
  • – LOSS

Model Favourites – these were the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan. 2/10 won this week.

These selections were this weekend:

  • Espanol
  • – LOSS

  • Udinese
  • – WIN

  • Eibar
  • – LOSS

  • Hertha Berlin
  • – WIN

  • Schalke
  • – LOSS

  • Port Vale
  • – LOSS

  • MK Dons
  • – LOSS

  • Osasuna
  • – LOSS

  • Sampdoria
  • – LOSS

  • Barnsley
  • – LOSS

The top eight on the above list were all 50pt recommended stakes. No 100pt recommended stakes were recommended for last weekend.

I have uploaded the below full review file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

21st-24th April Weekend REVIEW

21st-24th April – Simple Tips Table – All Tips

Game Team League Home/Away Date Win Odds Recommended bet (in points)
FC Koln vs Hoffenheim FC Koln Bundesliga Home 21/04/17 3.40 10.00
Ein Frankfurt vs Augsburg Ein Frankfurt Bundesliga Home 22/04/17 1.80 10.00
Hertha vs Wolfsburg Hertha Bundesliga Home 22/04/17 2.57 50.00
M’gladbach vs Dortmund M’gladbach Bundesliga Home 22/04/17 3.48 10.00
Bristol City vs Barnsley Barnsley Championship Away 22/04/17 5.20 10.00
Burton vs Leeds Burton Championship Home 22/04/17 3.15 10.00
Huddersfield vs Fulham Huddersfield Championship Home 22/04/17 2.50 10.00
Wolves vs Blackburn Wolves Championship Home 22/04/17 2.30 10.00
Millwall vs Oxford Oxford League One Away 22/04/17 5.50 10.00
Milton Keynes Dons vs Sheffield United Milton Keynes Dons League One Home 22/04/17 4.45 50.00
Oldham vs Rochdale Oldham League One Home 22/04/17 3.30 10.00
Port Vale vs Bolton Port Vale League One Home 22/04/17 5.00 50.00
Shrewsbury vs Southend Shrewsbury League One Home 22/04/17 3.64 10.00
Swindon vs Scunthorpe Swindon League One Home 22/04/17 2.93 10.00
Crawley Town vs Carlisle Crawley Town League Two Home 22/04/17 3.28 10.00
Exeter vs Morecambe Morecambe League Two Away 22/04/17 6.75 10.00
Luton vs Notts County Notts County League Two Away 22/04/17 5.00 10.00
Bordeaux vs Bastia Bastia Ligue 1 Away 22/04/17 9.50 10.00
Dijon vs Angers Angers Ligue 1 Away 22/04/17 3.50 10.00
Lille vs Guingamp Guingamp Ligue 1 Away 22/04/17 4.00 10.00
Paris SG vs Montpellier Montpellier Ligue 1 Away 22/04/17 17.00 10.00
West Ham vs Everton West Ham Premier League Home 22/04/17 3.30 10.00
Espanol vs Ath Madrid Espanol Primera Division Home 22/04/17 5.75 50.00
Malaga vs Valencia Malaga Primera Division Home 22/04/17 2.40 10.00
Osasuna vs Sp Gijon Osasuna Primera Division Home 22/04/17 2.68 50.00
Fiorentina vs Inter Inter Serie A Away 22/04/17 2.72 10.00
Freiburg vs Leverkusen Freiburg Bundesliga Home 23/04/17 3.60 10.00
Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig Schalke 04 Bundesliga Home 23/04/17 2.95 50.00
St Etienne vs Rennes Rennes Ligue 1 Away 23/04/17 4.20 10.00
Celta vs Betis Betis Primera Division Away 23/04/17 4.00 10.00
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Barcelona Primera Division Away 23/04/17 3.25 10.00
Sociedad vs La Coruna La Coruna Primera Division Away 23/04/17 6.10 10.00
Sampdoria vs Crotone Sampdoria Serie A Home 23/04/17 1.91 10.00
Udinese vs Cagliari Udinese Serie A Home 23/04/17 1.92 50.00
Eibar vs Ath Bilbao Eibar Primera Division Home 24/04/17 2.60 50.00

21st-24th April Weekend Preview – All Tips

Below is a summary of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 21st April – Monday 24th April). This post was originally published on Friday 21st April at 11.15am UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair on Tuesday 19th April. Odds may have changed since.

There are 22 home tips in all this weekend and 13 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.13 and the away tips at an average of 5.9.

All individual league analysis articles have been published – just look on the left sidebar or at the bottom of the page if you’re on mobile/tablet. Here’s our Championship preview, for example.

Want something easier to digest and can’t get on Google Drive? Check out our 21st April – 24th April Weekend Preview – Simple Tips Table.

Short Prices – these are the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Sampdoria
  • Udinese
  • Wolves
  • Malaga
  • Huddersfield
  • Hertha Berlin
  • Eibar
  • Osasuna
  • Inter Milan

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Espanol
  • Udinese
  • Eibar
  • Hertha Berlin
  • Schalke
  • Port Vale
  • MK Dons
  • Osasuna
  • Sampdoria
  • Barnsley

The top eight on the above list are all 50pt recommended stakes. No 100pt recommended stakes this weekend.

I have uploaded the below full preview file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

21st-24th April Weekend PREVIEW

Please let me know if you require any more info or analysis on any of the games featured which was not covered on the individual article for that league this weekend. Happy betting!

Spanish Primera Division – 21st April – 24th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Espanol vs Atletico Madrid – 50pts stake – Espanol are currently 5.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.41, a 24% gap in % terms.

Espanol have a 11pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (498 to 509) – Espanol have come up on our radar a few times recently, beating Alaves and Leganes back to back entering a far tougher proposition this forthcoming weekend. Why do we give them a chance against a team 3rd in La Liga and who have just reached the Champions League semis? Let’s look at the Adjusted Home TR numbers:

Espanol’s Home/Away Adjusted TR split of +258.2 is ranked 1st in La Liga – this means the gap between their home and away performances is the biggest in the league – they play far better at the RCDE Stadium than on the road. Atletico’s away record as well perhaps isn’t the strongest this season, 7-6-3 (23-12, +11 GD) and this could just present an upset opportunity.

Eibar vs Athletic Bilbao – 50pts stake – Eibar are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.71, a 20% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 100pt Real TR advantage for this one (583 to 483) – We were a bit surprised when we saw the scale of the gap between team ratings for these two given Bilbao’s decent league position, but Athletic have struggled on the road this season (4-2-9, 12-21, -9 GD). With these two teams separated by just 30 miles in the Basque Country though, this very much is a local derby.

It seemed that Eibar were being tipped by our model every week, but this seemed to have stopped in the last couple of weekends as bookies adjusted prices accordingly. Looking at Adjusted TR though, Eibar still rank pretty highly:

While Bilbao’s strong performances have tended to come at home, as can be seen looking at their Adjusted Away TR stat:

Osasuna vs Sporting Gijon – 50pts stake – Osasuna are currently 2.68 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 15.3% gap in % terms.

Osasuna have a 62pt Real TR advantage for this game (454 to 392) – And here’s another Basque side we’re backing in the shape of Osasuna. We’ve backed them the last two weeks – first successfully as they broke their home duck versus Leganes before unsuccessfully backing them at massive odds to beat Atletico away. They’re still needing snookers in the fight to avoid relegation and this is a must win game for them at home to another side in relegation difficulty, Sporting Gijon.

Both sides hold identical respective home and away records, each being 1-5-10. So what gives? For us, it’s the respective difference between their home and away rolling average team ratings:

As you can see, although neither team is ranked particularly highly, there is a significant difference of around 100 points between Osasuna’s home rating and Sporting Gijon’s away rating – and Gijon have only had ONE game this season where they’ve achieved a higher individual game team rating than their opponents away from home (where, er, we tipped their opponents to win. Naturally):

Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna – 10pts stake – Deportivo are currently 6.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.12, a 7.9% gap in % terms.

Deportivo La Coruna have a 55pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (471 to 526) – This looks like a bit of a long shot, but these teams aren’t too far apart when it comes to Adjusted TR, with Depor ranked 10th on 484 and Sociedad ranked 6th on 527. Secondly, looking at Sociedad’s recent home record, they’ve taken just five points from their last five home games, a record that is reflected in the Adjusted Home TR stat:

And looking at their individual performances, Sociedad’s quality at home really does seem to have dipped somewhat in the second half of the season:

Italian Serie A 22nd-24th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Udinese vs Cagliari – 50pts stake – Udinese are currently 1.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.36, a 21.5% gap in terms.

Udinese have a 180pt Real TR advantage going into this game (551 to 371) – Udinese’s five game unbeaten streak was ended when losing 3-0 to Napoli last Saturday, a result that left them just two points above their Sardinian opponents this weekend. But our metrics dictate a huge disparity in the quality of these two sides’ performances. Let’s look at our overall Adjusted TR table:

As you can see, Udinese have a huge advantage. Why is that? Cagliari’s ratio of 42% of their shots being on target is very high and unsustainable in the long term – the league average is closer to 35%. Cagliari have also been far weaker defensively than their opponents this season; they’ve conceded an average of 17 shots per game to Udinese’s 12.6 shots. It’s difficult to maintain such a high percentage of shots on target without that regressing in the future, or keeping so many chances out at the other end.

Sampdoria vs Crotone – 10pts stake – Sampdoria are currently 1.91 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.49, a 14.9% gap in terms.

Samp have a 145pt Real TR advantage entering this one (525 to 380) – Samp may not have much to play for being firmly rooted in mid-table (don’t mention “arranged games” yet haha) but should have too much for a Crotone side attempting a desperate late escape. Crotone beat Chievo and Inter before drawing at Torino, but they have a pretty poor away record this season of 1-3-12 (10-29, -19 GD) and this is reflected in their Adjusted Away TR stat, ranking them 19th in Serie A on this measure:

Samp continue to be inconsistent – we tipped them to win at Sassuolo which they lost, but they’ve also beaten Inter recently and played well when losing by a single goal at home to Juve. That said, the bottom three in Serie A have all been relatively speaking, very poor this season and this should be a fairly safe back.

Fiorentina vs Inter – 10pts stake – Inter are currently 2.72 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.05, a 12.1% gap in % terms.

Inter have a 65pt Real TR advantage entering this one (636 to 571) – Inter were robbed last week in a game where we tipped them for a 50pt stake at home to Milan. They led 2-0 before conceding a 97th minute equaliser in a game where the ref added two further minutes on to the end of stoppage time allowing Milan to score a late goal from a corner that barely crossed the line (I’m not bitter or anything, honest).

Despite a slight regression in performances since the period immediately after the winter break, Inter have continued to perform well and have the highest Adjusted Away TR in Serie A over the past 20 games:

Whilst Inter’s strong form has subsided as of late, Fiorentina managed the impressive task of losing 2-1 at home to Empoli last weekend – a real shock against one of the worst teams in a major European league. Fancy Inter to come back here and use some of the anger from last week to inflict a defeat on their opponents.