31st March – 3rd April – Simple Tips Table – All Tips

Game Team League Home/Away Date Win Odds Recommended bet (in points)
Hertha vs Hoffenheim Hertha Bundesliga Home 31/03/17 2.74 10.00
Guingamp vs Nancy Guingamp Ligue 1 Home 31/03/17 1.92 10.00
Espanol vs Betis Espanol Primera Division Home 31/03/17 2.22 10.00
Dundee vs Aberdeen Dundee Scottish Premiership Home 31/03/17 6.40 10.00
Ein Frankfurt vs M’gladbach Ein Frankfurt Bundesliga Home 01/04/17 2.82 100.00
Hamburg vs FC Koln Hamburg Bundesliga Home 01/04/17 2.54 10.00
Schalke 04 vs Dortmund Schalke 04 Bundesliga Home 01/04/17 3.75 50.00
Barnsley vs Sheffield Weds Barnsley Championship Home 01/04/17 3.40 10.00
Brighton vs Blackburn Brighton Championship Home 01/04/17 1.60 10.00
Preston vs Nott’m Forest Preston Championship Home 01/04/17 1.99 10.00
Bradford vs Walsall Walsall League One Away 01/04/17 6.80 10.00
Port Vale vs AFC Wimbledon Port Vale League One Home 01/04/17 3.15 10.00
Cheltenham vs Morecambe Morecambe League Two Away 01/04/17 4.50 10.00
Hartlepool vs Portsmouth Hartlepool League Two Home 01/04/17 7.20 50.00
Leyton Orient vs Wycombe Leyton Orient League Two Home 01/04/17 4.50 10.00
Bastia vs Lille Bastia Ligue 1 Home 01/04/17 3.45 10.00
Malaga vs Ath Madrid Malaga Primera Division Home 01/04/17 5.50 10.00
Sociedad vs Leganes Sociedad Primera Division Home 01/04/17 1.75 10.00
Villarreal vs Eibar Eibar Primera Division Away 01/04/17 4.70 10.00
Hamilton vs St Johnstone Hamilton Scottish Premiership Home 01/04/17 3.40 10.00
Inverness C vs Kilmarnock Kilmarnock Scottish Premiership Away 01/04/17 3.80 10.00
Roma vs Empoli Roma Serie A Home 01/04/17 1.19 10.00
Montpellier vs Toulouse Montpellier Ligue 1 Home 02/04/17 2.16 50.00
Nantes vs Angers Angers Ligue 1 Away 02/04/17 4.10 10.00
Rennes vs Lyon Rennes Ligue 1 Home 02/04/17 4.60 50.00
Real Madrid vs Alaves Alaves Primera Division Away 02/04/17 25.00 10.00
Valencia vs La Coruna La Coruna Primera Division Away 02/04/17 4.50 10.00
Genoa vs Atalanta Atalanta Serie A Away 02/04/17 2.18 10.00
Napoli vs Juventus Juventus Serie A Away 02/04/17 3.00 10.00
Palermo vs Cagliari Palermo Serie A Home 02/04/17 2.38 10.00
Torino vs Udinese Udinese Serie A Away 02/04/17 4.40 50.00
Celta vs Las Palmas Las Palmas Primera Division Away 03/04/17 3.90 10.00

31st March – 3rd April – Weekend Preview – All Tips

Below is a summary of all English & European football tips for this weekend (fixtures taking place from Friday 31st March – Monday 3rd April). This post was originally published on Thursday 30th March at 2.45pm UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair either on Tuesday 28th March or Wednesday 29th March. Odds may have changed since.

There are 21 home tips in all this weekend and 11 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.27 and the away tips at an average of 6.08. The average for away tips is in part so high because Alaves are recommended as a 10pt bet at odds of 25. Without Alaves, the average for away tips is a far more normal 4.19.

All individual league analysis articles have been published – just look on the left sidebar or at the bottom of the page if you’re on mobile/tablet. Here’s our La Liga preview, for example.

Want something easier to digest and can’t get on Google Drive? Check out our 31st March – 3rd April Weekend Preview – Simple Tips Table.

Short Prices – these are the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Roma
  • Brighton
  • Real Sociedad
  • Guingamp
  • Preston
  • Montpellier
  • Atalanta
  • Espanyol
  • Palermo
  • Hamburg

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Montpellier
  • Rennes
  • Udinese
  • Hartlepool
  • Schalke
  • Malaga
  • Bastia
  • Hamburg
  • Guingamp

Eintracht Frankfurt are a recommended 100pt stake this weekend – the next top five on the above list are all 50pt recommended stakes.

I have uploaded the below full preview file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

31st March – 3rd April Weekend PREVIEW

Please let me know if you require any more info or analysis on any of the games featured which was not covered on the individual article for that league this weekend. Happy betting!

Spanish Primera Division – 31st March – 3rd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 4 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Malaga vs Atletico Madrid – 10pts stake – Malaga are currently 5.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.1, a 14.1% gap in % terms.

Malaga have a 64pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (452 to 516) – Malaga haven’t won in five coming into this one and that run included some teams in the bottom half of the table (Leganes and Real Betis, for example). Atletico meanwhile have won their last three, including a huge win in their quest for Champions League qualification when beating Sevilla 3-1 at the Calderon before the international break. However, you know we don’t like to look at form as the be-all and end-all:

Whilst Malaga are no great shakes, they do possess a decent home record of 6-2-5 (21-19, +2 GD) whilst we believe from our Adjusted TR that Atletico are slight over-performers this season in La Liga. The home side are definitely still the underdogs here, but we do believe they are over-priced.

Real Sociedad vs Leganes – 10pts stake – Real Sociedad are currently 1.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.46, a 11.15% gap in % terms.

Real Sociedad have a 164pt Real TR advantage for this encounter (563 to 399) – Sociedad lost two big derbies before the international break against Athletic Bilbao and Alaves and they have the weakest home/away split in Team Rating of any side in La Liga at just +0.7 (Home TR 539.4, Away TR 538.7). That said, on an overall basis they’ve still been very strong this season – they’ve achieved a higher individual game Team Rating than their opponents in 18 of their 28 games this term:

More importantly, Leganes have not performed well away from home at all, being ranked just 19th in Adjusted Away TR and with a relegation battle on their hands.

Valencia vs Deportivo La Coruna – 10pts stake – Deportivo are currently 4.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.39, a 7.3% gap in % terms.

Deportivo have a 15pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (491 to 506) – Valencia’s struggles in the first half of the season have dissipated somewhat with wins over Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao in February allowing them to climb the table. But they meet a Deportivo side who have picked up more points on the road this campaign than they have at home (6-3-5 away record, 16-15, +1 GD) and who we tipped successfully to beat Barcelona at home at 13.5, here.

Our metrics also show that Deportivo are significant under-performers this season. They sit 16th in La Liga but 8th on our Adjusted Team Rating metric:

Espanol vs Real Betis – 10pts stake – Espanol are currently 2.22 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.92, a 7.1% gap in % terms.

Espanol have a 61pt Real TR advantage for this match (502 to 441) – Both teams appear to be headed for slightly different qualities of mid-table finish this season, but Espanol’s average home record belies a set of rather more impressive home performances according to our metrics. They are ranked 3rd by Home Team Rating over the last 20 games (20 games overall, which will be between their last 9 and 11 home games):

Whilst both teams are very similar in Adjusted TR overall (Espanol 13th on 466, Betis 14th on 465), this big difference between each team’s respective home and away ratings mean we see Espanol as a relatively marginal value bet here. Both teams are in fairly average form and there’s not much else sticking out here, but this is a game for which our indicators are pretty precise at finding value.

Italian Serie A – 1st April-3rd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Torino vs Udinese – 50pts stake – Udinese are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.37, a 19.4% gap in % terms.

Udinese have a 29pt Real TR advantage for this one (520 to 491) – Udinese have seen an improvement in form recently, first holding leaders Juve to a 1-1 draw at home before beating relegation facing Palermo and Pescara. They’ve also seen an improvement in Adjusted TR over the last few games, with their opponents moving in the other direction:

Whilst Torino with star striker Andrea Belotti have a strong home record and the firepower to hurt their opponents, they have an average individual game Team Rating of 475 over their past seven games in Serie A, a span we’ve chosen as they’ve played a fairly balanced selection of teams during this period.

Genoa vs Atalanta – 10pts stake – Atalanta are currently 2.18 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.75, a 11.1% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 112pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (585 to 473) – Atalanta shook off their 7-1 hammering at Inter by beating Pescara 3-0 at home before the international break. Any outside chance of a Champions League spot might have died with that thrashing by the Nerazzurri but they still have high hopes of making European football next season and their underlying metrics still look strong:

Their hosts sit 16th in Serie A and whilst we believe that they’ve perhaps slightly under-performed their true performance level this season, they do have a mediocre home record this season (4-6-4, 18-14, +4 GD). With their opponents continuing to be undervalued according to our metrics, we’re backing another win for Atalanta.

Roma vs Empoli – 10pts stake – Roma are currently 1.19 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.05, a 10.9% gap in % terms.

Roma have a 284pt Real TR advantage coming into this game (633 to 349) – Empoli may sit outside the relegation zone with a seven point cushion over Palermo, but in any other season with an average of 0.75pts per game they’d be toast. They’re even worse when you look at the results of our model; they sit 20th and last in Adjusted TR and 19th in Adjusted TR away from home:

Empoli have lost their last six in Serie A and haven’t won in eight – it says a lot for the sides below them that they’re not in the relegation zone, let alone not even being in real relegation danger. Yet…

Palermo vs Cagliari – 10pts stake – Palermo are currently 2.38 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.91, a 10.25% gap in % terms.

Palermo have a 51pt Real TR advantage for this match (416 to 365) – Yet…Empoli may be in danger if this tip comes up trumps. Seven points from safety with nine games to go, Palermo have won just once at home all season (versus Crotone). Yet in what little I’ve seen of them they have thrown away opportunities to improve that record (most notably versus Sampdoria) and our metrics show that given Cagliari’s own away weaknesses, they have to be given a real chance here. Here’s a comparison of the sides’ respective home and away Team Ratings:

For any side to have an away Team Rating of less than 300 is pretty catastrophic – the only other sides with that mark this season in Europe’s top leagues are Granada and Darmstadt, neither of whom has covered themselves in glory during this campaign.

French Ligue 1 – 31st March-2nd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Montpellier vs Toulouse – 50pts stake – Montpellier are currently 2.16 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.44, a 23% gap in % terms.

Montpellier have a 198pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture (580 to 382) – We seem to have backed Montpellier on numerous occasions recently, with them being a heavy under-performer, ranked 7th in TR against a league position of 15th:

As you can see, Toulouse meanwhile are ranked last on this measure in Ligue 1 and have a terrible 1-7-7 away record to match (5-17, -12 GD). Hopefully the hosts will repay our affection with a win for once.

Rennes vs Lyon – 50pts stake – Rennes are currently 4.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 21.7% gap in % terms.

Rennes have a 3pt Real TR deficit entering this match (532 to 535) – Rennes have a strong home record (8-5-2, 20-11, +9 GD) while Lyon have lost four of their last five away games (losses at Caen, St Etienne, Bordeaux, PSG). Looking at our metrics, the key thing to watch out for is the gap between Rennes’ Home Adjusted TR and Lyon’s Away Adjusted TR:

There’s a 93pt gap between the two numbers – and this tells a broader story about Ligue 1 this season, which is that home sides have dominated and very few teams have done particularly well away from home. We don’t think that this has been adequately factored into odds formation and therefore teams like Rennes are overpriced as a consequence.

Bastia vs Lille – 10pts stake – Bastia are currently 3.45 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.34, a 13.8% gap in % terms.

Bastia have the same Real TR as Lille coming into this fixture (481) – With both teams on the same Real TR for this one, we think Bastia are over-priced as a consequence, despite being in a relegation fight entering the last eight games of the season. This is a tough one to call at first glance, as both teams under-perform their respective home and away Adjusted Team Ratings.

However our model also takes into consideration how likely teams in a given league are to win over the course of a season given their Real Team Rating differential. In this case where their ratings are even, home teams perform better than Bastia’s current odds would suggest, which means we think they’ve overpriced for this particular match.

Guingamp vs Nancy – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 1.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.56, a 14.6% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 160pt Real TR advantage for this one (543 to 383) – The hosts have had an up and down season, one of the smaller teams in the French top flight. They had a good start and beat PSG pre-Christmas to go into the top six, but their form has regressed somewhat during this calendar year. They do have a strong home record of 8-3-3 in Ligue 1 though (20-10, +10 GD) and with those home defeats coming against Monaco, Nice and Caen, they have only lost once at home to a side outside the top three.

As you can see above, Nancy are ranked 19th in Adjusted TR and they are 18th in the table, suggesting that they are neither under-performing or over-performing their underlying metrics. Basically, they look bad and they are bad. They haven’t scored in their last four away games and their one away win of the season at Nantes was against the only side in Ligue 1 to be as good away from home as they are at home. Guingamp should do this.

German Bundesliga – 31st March-2nd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – 100pts stake – Eintracht are currently 2.82 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.58, a 27.7% gap in implied % terms.

Eintracht have a 157pt Real TR advantage entering this one (601 to 444) – Frankfurt’s five game losing streak came to an end with their draw at home to a rapidly improving Hamburg team before the international break. Whilst that poor run of form has cost them any chance of a Champions League place, their performances at home taking a longer view have continued to be impressive – they’ve achieved higher individual game Team Ratings than their opponents in nine of their twelve home games this season (two of the exceptions, at home to Bayern & Freiburg, were very close):

Gladbach meanwhile, have a 3-2-7 away record (10-22, -12 GD) and this is backed up by their Adjusted Away TR, ranked 16th in the Bundesliga:

Schalke vs Borussia Dortmund – 50pts stake – Schalke are currently 2.32 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.64, a 17.8% gap in implied % terms.

Schalke have a 16pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (553 to 569) – Schalke boss Christian Weinzierl was under pressure a month ago, but a come from behind elimination of Borussia Moenchengladbach in the Europa League followed up by back to back Bundesliga victories over Augsburg and at Mainz has helped to strengthen his position. This upsurge in form has also been matched by an improvement in average Team Rating:

Dortmund’s long term statistics reflect their position in 3rd in the Bundesliga fairly well and in actual fact we peg them as slightly better than Leipzig, who sit above them. But before the break they did show some signs of slipping – they only managed a individual game Team Rating of 495 when they lost 2-1 at Hertha (rating – 502) and only 531 when beating relegation doomed Ingolstadt 1-0 at home, a game where their opponents had more shots than them.

Hamburg vs FC Koln – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 2.54 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.92, a 12.7% gap in implied % terms.

Hamburg have a 65pt Real TR advantage over their opponents (511 to 446) – Hamburg appear to be pulling off another daring escape from relegation and have responded well to an 8-0 hammering at Bayern by beating Hertha & Gladbach before drawing at Frankfurt. This improvement in form has also been matched by their 20 game rolling average TR which has improved from 398 to 488 since their 3-1 defeat at Ingolstadt on the 28th January:

Koln have struggled themselves away from home this season, with a 3-5-5 record (18-19, -1 GD) and they find themselves ranked 15th on our Adjusted Away TR metric, which measures team rating away from home and adjusts it for strength of schedule over that team’s past 20 games.

Hertha Berlin vs Hoffenheim – 10pts stake – Hertha are currently 2.74 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.35, a 6% gap in implied % terms.

Hertha have a 15pt disadvantage in Real TR coming into this match (525 to 540) – This is an interesting one – looking at our metrics, Hertha are ranked 9th on Adjusted TR for the last 20 games, whilst sat 5th in the table. This would usually influence us to advise against them, but Hertha are a far better team at home than they are away (ranked 6th on Adjusted Home TR on 605pts / ranked 17th on Adjusted Away TR on 366pts). That’s something that we don’t think is adequately priced in at the moment, which makes Hertha a marginal 10pt tip here.

English Championship 31st March-1st April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Preston vs Nottingham Forest – 10pts stake – Preston are currently 1.99 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.64, a 10.8% gap in implied % terms.

Preston have a 135pt Real TR advantage entering this match (520 to 385) – Preston have had a pretty average season, always seemingly just a stretch too far adrift of the top six to make it into playoff contention but still not entirely out of consideration with eight games to go in the Championship. Forest meanwhile, have far bigger concerns – an unpopular owner presiding over a side at risk of falling into the third tier. Their away record of 2-4-13 (19-37, -18 GD) is second worst only to Rotherham in the league, and they rank 24th and last in Adjusted Away TR over the last 20 games:

Forest’s two away wins both came back to back in late November against Barnsley and Ipswich – it’s difficult to see them picking up a third win on the road at Deepdale.

Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday – 10pts stake – Barnsley are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.6, a 9% gap in implied % terms.

Barnsley have a 28pt Real TR deficit for this one (486 to 514) – With 16 points from 14 league games in 2017, it’s initially difficult to avoid the conclusion that selling players in January’s transfer window negatively affected the Tykes’ chances this season, although judging by our individual game Team Ratings, they averaged 482 in 24 league games before the new year and 471 after it, which isn’t a significant difference.

Wednesday’s form has wobbled recently as they attempt to fend off Fulham for what looks like the final spot in the Championship playoffs. According to our metrics they appear to be as good and no better or worse than their league position suggests, although their Adjusted Away TR has dipped recently:

This dip in away performance leads us to believe that Barnsley are over-valued for this one, although we are coming up to a time of year when teams in mid-table do simply have less to play for then an opponent.

Brighton vs Blackburn – 10pts stake – Brighton are currently 1.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.41, a 8.6% gap in implied % terms.

Brighton have a 207pt Real TR advantage heading into this match (686 to 479) – Three defeats in their last five league games may have given pundits the impression that this is another Seagulls season heading for the skids. But defeats in 2017 for Brighton tend to have come against the best sides in the division (Newcastle, Huddersfield and Leeds), with the capitulation at Forest sticking out like a sore thumb.

Looking at their last 10 games with the exception of the matches against Newcastle and Leeds, they average 683.5 in individual game Team Rating across this stretch:

Does that look like a selective sample? Possibly. But it does get across the point that Brighton are flat track bullies, to an extent. And in a way, there’s nothing wrong with that, particularly when we’re backing them at home to a side struggling against relegation. Blackburn have staged somewhat of a recovery of late though – going six unbeaten as they try to avoid the drop, averaging 564.5 in individual game Team Rating during this period.

English Premier League 1st-2nd April ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 0 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

As you can see above, there are no tips highlighted for the Premier League this weekend. There was one that initially came up, with Stoke just breaching the threshold required to be tipped for a 10pt stake at Leicester. However, as this was already marginal, and with Leicester’s performances and results greatly improving since the dismissal of Claudio Ranieri as manager, we have manually excluded this one this weekend.

Don’t worry, the absence of any tips for a particular league in any given weekend is a rare occurrence – we’d rather give no tips than bad tips!

English League One & League Two Fixtures – 25th-26th March ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 8 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. As there are only two leagues with fixture rounds this weekend due to the international break, if you wish for further analysis on any of the games please let us know by commenting below, or contacting us via Facebook or Twitter. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 23rd March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips – League One

Oldham vs Sheffield United – 50pts stake – Oldham are currently 7.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.07, a 18.6% gap in implied % terms.

Shrewsbury vs Bolton – 50pts stake – Shrewsbury are currently 3.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.35, a 16.3% gap in implied % terms.

Swindon vs Millwall – 10pts stake – Swindon are currently 3.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.58, a 13.4% gap in implied % terms.

Chesterfield vs Rochdale – 10pts stake – Chesterfield are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.00, a 10.6% gap in implied % terms.

Port Vale vs MK Dons – 10pts stake – Port Vale are currently 3.65 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.68, a 9.9% gap in implied % terms.

AFC Wimbledon vs Southend – 10pts stake – AFC Wimbledon are currently 2.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.31, a 8.95% gap in implied % terms.

Gillingham vs Peterborough – 10pts stake – Gillingham are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.61, a 8.5% gap in implied % terms.

Weekend tips – League Two

Morecambe vs Mansfield – 10pts stake – Morecambe are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.11, a 9.4% gap in implied % terms.

Blackpool vs Hartlepool – 10pts stake – Hartlepool are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.73, a 9.3% gap in implied % terms.

Exeter vs Yeovil – 10pts stake – Yeovil are currently 5.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.65, a 9.2% gap in implied % terms.

Accrington vs Grimsby – 10pts stake – Grimsby are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.18, a 8.7% gap in implied % terms.

17th-20th March – Weekend Review.

Below is a review of all English & European football tips for this weekend just gone (fixtures taking place from Friday 17th March – Monday 20th March). This post was originally published on Monday 20th March at 1.45pm UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair either on Tuesday 14th March or Wednesday 15th March, except League Two games for which the odds were taken on the morning of Thursday 16th March.

There were 28 home tips in all this weekend and 11 away tips. The home tips were at an average of 3.45 and the away tips at an average of 5.2.

FINAL REVIEW – 13/39 tips won. This led to a 15.2 point profit, which is a +2.6% yield on a total stake of 590pts this weekend.

SINCE LAUNCH – 160/466 tips won, 222.6 point profit, which is a +2.9% yield on a total stake of 7,780 points.

WHAT HAPPENED – Strike rate wasn’t too bad (13/39, 33.3%) vs expected (average odds of all tips was 3.94, this equals an implied percentage chance of 25.4%). Average odds of bets won was 2.46, this equals an implied percentage chance of 40.7%.

Small profit achieved mostly due to decent returns on home tips, 12/28, 124.2 point profit, which is a +28.2% yield. Away tips were not so strong, 1/11, 109 point losswhich is a -72.3% yield.

Thank God for West Brom! And it provoked more hysterics from the idiot brigade too…

 

Short Prices – these were the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration. 6/10 strike rate this week.

These selections were this weekend:

    • Barcelona

– WIN

    • Atalanta

– WIN

    • Tottenham

– WIN

    • Eibar

– LOSS

    • Cardiff

– WIN

    • Inter

– LOSS

    • Hoffenheim

– WIN

    • Deportivo La Coruna

– LOSS

    • Sporting Gijon

– WIN

    • West Ham

– LOSS

Model Favourites – these were the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan. 3/10 strike rate this weekend.

These selections were this weekend:

    • Eintracht Frankfurt

– LOSS

    • Tottenham

– WIN

    • Morecambe

– LOSS

    • West Brom

– WIN

    • West Ham

– LOSS

    • Dijon

– LOSS

    • Nottingham Forest

– LOSS

    • Sevilla

– LOSS

    • Atalanta

– WIN

    • Birmingham

– LOSS

No 100pts recommended stakes this weekend – the top five on the above list were all 50pt recommended stakes.

I have uploaded the below full review file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

17th-20th March 2017 Weekend REVIEW