For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.
We have 2 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.
Empoli vs Genoa – 10pts stake – Genoa are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.15, a 13.1% gap in % terms.
Genoa have a 59pt Real TR advantage for this game (444 to 385) – Both teams are in the bottom five in Serie A, but there is a significant difference in performance between these sides so far this season. Empoli may be outside the relegation zone, but their performances suggest they should be propping up the table:
They are slightly better at home than away, but even at home the only two sides below them in Adjusted TR are Palermo and Pescara, who both look like going down. Genoa haven’t won in ten with an average TR of 408 during this period, which is bad, but still better than Empoli’s rating. There is a lot of crap in Serie A this season, but some teams are simply less crap than others.
Crotone vs Sassuolo – 10pts stake – Crotone are currently 3.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.74, a 9.8% gap in % terms.
Crotone have a 44pt Real TR deficit entering this one (411 to 455) – Crotone have lost their last five and haven’t beaten a top half side in Serie A this season. You know that discussion we were having about crap earlier in the post? Crotone certainly fit into that. But for a team nine points off safety, their performance levels at home haven’t been too bad:
Sassuolo haven’t quite reached the heights of last year when they qualified for the Europa League but have never really looked in any threat this season, ensconsed safely in lower mid-table. But Crotone have performed well at home against teams in the bottom half (without necessarily getting the results they deserve) and we think they’re a little bit too big here.
Atalanta vs Fiorentina – 10pts stake – Atalanta are currently 1.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.63, a 10.1% gap in % terms.
Atalanta have a 109pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture (660 to 551) – last weekend’s 2-0 win at Napoli may just be the trigger that stops the model highlighting Atalanta every week as a value bet. It’s difficult to keep over-pricing a team that starts to pull off victories as impressive as that, and the boys from Bergamo now stand a real chance of making the Champions League and bettering their highest ever finish in Serie A of 6th position.
The Nerazzurri now stand 2nd in Serie A in terms of Adjusted TR:
Fiorentina have played a tricky schedule recently and their form has understandably varied; losing to Milan and Roma and beating Pescara. More worrying though, for La Viola was the result at home to Torino midweek – a game they led 2-0 at half time and where they would have been out of sight were it not for great goalkeeping from Joe Hart. But they let Torino back in and top scorer Andrea Belotti got a brace to deny Fiorentina of all three points. They’ll have to be more focused this weekend in order to get anything.