Italian Serie A – 4th-5th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Empoli vs Genoa – 10pts stake – Genoa are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.15, a 13.1% gap in % terms.

Genoa have a 59pt Real TR advantage for this game (444 to 385) – Both teams are in the bottom five in Serie A, but there is a significant difference in performance between these sides so far this season. Empoli may be outside the relegation zone, but their performances suggest they should be propping up the table:

They are slightly better at home than away, but even at home the only two sides below them in Adjusted TR are Palermo and Pescara, who both look like going down. Genoa haven’t won in ten with an average TR of 408 during this period, which is bad, but still better than Empoli’s rating. There is a lot of crap in Serie A this season, but some teams are simply less crap than others.

Crotone vs Sassuolo – 10pts stake – Crotone are currently 3.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.74, a 9.8% gap in % terms.

Crotone have a 44pt Real TR deficit entering this one (411 to 455) – Crotone have lost their last five and haven’t beaten a top half side in Serie A this season. You know that discussion we were having about crap earlier in the post? Crotone certainly fit into that. But for a team nine points off safety, their performance levels at home haven’t been too bad:

Sassuolo haven’t quite reached the heights of last year when they qualified for the Europa League but have never really looked in any threat this season, ensconsed safely in lower mid-table. But Crotone have performed well at home against teams in the bottom half (without necessarily getting the results they deserve) and we think they’re a little bit too big here.

Atalanta vs Fiorentina – 10pts stake – Atalanta are currently 1.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.63, a 10.1% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 109pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture (660 to 551) – last weekend’s 2-0 win at Napoli may just be the trigger that stops the model highlighting Atalanta every week as a value bet. It’s difficult to keep over-pricing a team that starts to pull off victories as impressive as that, and the boys from Bergamo now stand a real chance of making the Champions League and bettering their highest ever finish in Serie A of 6th position.

The Nerazzurri now stand 2nd in Serie A in terms of Adjusted TR:

Fiorentina have played a tricky schedule recently and their form has understandably varied; losing to Milan and Roma and beating Pescara. More worrying though, for La Viola was the result at home to Torino midweek – a game they led 2-0 at half time and where they would have been out of sight were it not for great goalkeeping from Joe Hart. But they let Torino back in and top scorer Andrea Belotti got a brace to deny Fiorentina of all three points. They’ll have to be more focused this weekend in order to get anything.

French Ligue 1 – 3rd-5th March ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 7 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Bastia vs St Etienne – 50pts stake – Bastia are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 23.4% gap in % terms.

Bastia have a 63pt Real TR advantage for this fixture (521 to 458) – One of the by-products of our system is that some teams can get picked to win week after week. It’s the converse for teams who have over-performed so far this season and we end up picking whoever’s playing them from week to week. We tipped Caen to win at St Etienne last weekend, this time we’re picking Bastia to beat them at home:

Bastia are in the relegation zone but have been a tough nut to crack in Corsica this season, holding a 3-7-3 home record (12-11, +1 GD). Like many Ligue 1 sides, St Etienne have struggled away from home this season (3-4-6, 13-15, -2 GD despite being 6th in the league) and they’ve also lost three out of their last four Ligue 1 games plus losing both legs of their Europa League tie versus Manchester United.

Dijon vs Nice – 50pts stake – Dijon are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.14, a 17.3% gap in % terms.

Dijon have a 6pt Real TR advantage coming into this one (501 to 495) – Dijon are 18th and Nice 3rd in Ligue 1, but they aren’t separated by much in terms of Adjusted TR:

Why is this? Nice have had a freakishly good record when it comes to conceding goals given their overall defensive play. Only 5.8% of their shots faced have been goals, the best mark in Ligue 1 (compared to an average of 10.9%). Only 19.4% of their shots on target faced have been goals, the 2nd best mark in Ligue 1 (compared to an average of 31.9%). Given that they’ve also faced 57 more shots this season than they’ve had, these above stats suggest that they’re over-performing and that their results will eventually start to reflect their performance better.

Dijon are perhaps slightly under-performing given that they sit 14th in Ligue 1 in terms of Adjusted TR, but on the whole they are where they deserve to be. But our model seeks out value bets and Nice’s record means that betting against them tends to provides value.

Lorient vs Marseilles – 50pts stake – Lorient are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.22, a 15.15% gap in % terms.

Lorient have a 10pt Real TR deficit for this game (499 to 509) – Lorient are another under-performing side this season – they sit 12th on Adjusted TR whilst sitting bottom of Ligue 1. The Betterbet model’s performed well in Ligue 1 this term and we wonder whether the amount of teams performing differently to their results is influencing this:

Marseilles, meanwhile, took a big loss at home to PSG at the weekend. That 5-1 defeat against their biggest rivals may have hit them hard and they’ve struggled on the road this season. They have a 2-3-8 (14-25, -11 GD) away record more akin to that of a team fighting relegation. This is their Adjusted TR away from home this season and it’s not pretty:

Metz vs Rennes – 10pts stake – Metz are currently 3.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.32, a 10.8% gap in % terms.

Metz hold a 28pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (442 to 470) – Rennes have been another team in Ligue 1 with a terrible away record (1-5-7, 7-21, -14 GD). Although Metz have been one of the worst performing teams in the division this season, we’re tipping them for this due to their relative strength at home versus Rennes’ weakness away:

Metz may be in the bottom three, but their home record of 5-4-3 (18-23, -5 GD) is relatively strong. Ligue 1 has had a relatively strong “bias” to home sides this season; only one team in the division has won less than 5 home league games during this campaign.

German Bundesliga – 3rd-5th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg – 50pts stake – Frankfurt are currently 2.16 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.57, a 17.4% gap in implied % terms.

Frankfurt have a 169pt Real TR advantage for this game (629 to 460) – Frankfurt have lost their last three games, losing at Leverkusen & Hertha and surprisingly getting beat at home to Ingolstadt. Their Adjusted TR has fallen, but not hugely:

Freiburg are 9th in the Bundesliga, but have been slightly over-performing their Team Rating this season, ranking 12th on Adjusted TR on an overall basis. Freiburg’s away record isn’t particularly impressive either (2-3-6, 14-23, -9 GD).

Augsburg vs RB Leipzig – 10pts stake – Augsburg are currently 4.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.06, a 10.9% gap in implied % terms.

Augsburg have a 83pt Real TR deficit for this game (509 to 592) – Augsburg have won three of their last five in the Bundesliga and these wins have all come against fellow relegation strugglers. But according to our metrics, they have under-performed their Team Rating this season:

Leipzig are trying to maintain contact with Bayern in the title race, but played poorly in recent losses to Dortmund (where they only had a Team Rating of 174 for that game) and Hamburg (237).

Hamburg vs Hertha Berlin – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 2.62 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.12, a 8.9% gap in implied % terms.

Hamburg have a 34pt Real TR advantage entering this match (465 to 431) – Hamburg are fighting against relegation (again) and their mini-revival was ended when on the wrong end of a 8-0 shellacking at Bayern on Saturday. But they have a real chance in this one, helped out by Hertha’s atrocious Adjusted TR away from home:

Hertha are ranked 17th in the Bundesliga on this measure with a rating of just 341. This is mirrored by their away record of 2-3-6 (11-19, -8 GD). If it’s any consolation for Hertha fans, their away wins this term have come at Wolfsburg and Ingolstadt, two teams like Hamburg fighting against the drop.

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Schalke – 10pts stake – Schalke are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.78, a 6.1% gap in implied % terms.

Schalke have a 2pt Real TR advantage for this game (512 to 510) – After a bad start to the season, Schalke’s performances have improved significantly of late. They’ve gone four unbeaten, all against top half teams (at Bayern, beating Hertha at home, drawing at Koln and home to Hoffenheim), a run that has seen their Adjusted TR increase by a fair bit:

Gladbach have gone on a run of four wins in their last five to pull themselves away from the relegation zone, but they’re still not at the level that saw them qualify for the Europa League last season, and they’re not under-performing in the same way that Schalke have been for much of this season.

English Premier League – 4th-6th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Spurs vs Everton – 50pts stake – Spurs are currently 1.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.27, a 19.8% gap in % terms.

Spurs have a 234pt Real TR advantage for this clash (738 to 504) – Spurs bounced back from their mini-slump by thrashing Stoke at the weekend and still have the 2nd best Adjusted TR in the EPL (688) and the 2nd best Season Long TR in the EPL (659, Chelsea are on 662).

Everton may be in good form, but their Adjusted TR has slipped recently, widening the gap between them and the rest of the Big Six:

While they improved against Sunderland and thrashed Bournemouth 6-3, they weren’t particularly dominant in the latter in terms of the number and quality of the chances created. We reckon there’s a pretty significant difference between these teams and Spurs should be heavily favoured on Sunday.

Liverpool vs Arsenal – 10pts stake – Liverpool are currently 2.12 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.75, a 10.1% gap in % terms.

Liverpool have a 79pt Real TR advantage for this game (651 to 572) – Arsenal have tended to beat up on the smaller teams away from home this season (delivering thrashings to West Ham, Sunderland, Hull and Swansea) but have struggled against bigger teams, particularly recently. Since beating West Ham away on the 3rd December, they lost at Everton and Man City, had to come from 3-0 down to draw at Bournemouth and lost at Chelsea.

Liverpool have had some poor results lately, but their individual game Team Ratings have not been too bad. In their seven league games this year, they’ve averaged 557, which is pretty respectable given they only took six points in total from those matches:

A third league defeat in four, together with the Bayern Munich fiasco, would heap further pressure back on Arsene Wenger.

Stoke vs Middlesborough – 10pts stake – Stoke are currently 2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.7, a 8.8% gap in % terms.

Stoke have a 90pt Real TR advantage for this game (480 to 390) – Boro haven’t won in nine and none of their four league victories have come against a team higher than 14th in the table (Bournemouth being the highest). Boro are 17th in Adjusted TR on an overall basis:

Stoke meanwhile sit 10th in the league, have the 10th best Adjusted TR in the Premier League and continue to sit in a comfortable position as they attempt to finish in 9th for the fourth consecutive season, which would surely be a record.

Leicester vs Hull – 10pts stake – Hull are currently 4.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.62, a 6.8% gap in % terms.

Hull have a 5pt Real TR deficit for this one (416 to 421) – Leicester responded to Claudio Ranieri’s sacking by winning 3-1 against Liverpool on Monday night, showing glimmers of the form that won them a Premier League crown last spring. But it’s very early to say that they have definitely turned the corner on the strength of one performance. Their performances since the turn of the year have been very poor, and they have also struggled at home this season:

Hull’s away form is awful (1-2-10, 6-28, -22 GD) but their Adjusted Away TR has risen to 403.8 (ranked 13th in the Premier League) recently, having played well against tough opponents including Chelsea, United, Liverpool and Arsenal (back to back!). They had the better of the play against Burnley at home, but failed to test Tom Heaton enough, and were punished having taken the lead (and cost me £1,150 on an accumulator).

24th-27th February – Gameweek Summary – All Tips

UPDATE: 283.1 point profit (+33.7% yield)

with all tipped games concluded.

Please see the below document for the complete review of how we did this weekend.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_Owoh0kAL-_cVVPbzh3TWRMVG8/view?usp=sharing

—-

Below is a summary of all English & European football tips for this “gameweek” (fixtures taking place from Friday 24th February to Monday 27th February). This post was originally published on Thursday 23rd February at 2.30pm UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair between midday Wednesday 22nd & midday Thursday 23rd February. Odds may have changed since.

There were 31 home tips in all this weekend and 13 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.11 and the away tips at an average of 4.96.

Short Prices – these were the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections are this weekend (from shortest to longest priced):

    • Juventus

– WIN

    • Chelsea

– WIN

    • Tottenham

– WIN

    • Athletic Bilbao

– WIN

    • Brighton

– WIN

    • RB Leipzig

– WIN

    • Eibar

– WIN

    • Crystal Palace

– WIN

    • Hull

– LOSS

    • Aston Villa

– WIN

All of the above play at HOME this weekend.

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

    • Marseilles

– LOSS

    • Atalanta

– WIN

    • Aston Villa

– WIN

    • Freiburg

– LOSS

    • Port Vale

– LOSS

    • Crotone

– LOSS

    • Eibar

– WIN

    • Villarreal

– LOSS

    • Chelsea

– WIN

    • Inter Milan

– LOSS

All of the above are 50pt recommended stakes (TEN this weekend, which is way more than the usual three or four). All of the above play at HOME with the exception of Atalanta.

I have uploaded the below full preview file to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

24th-27th February 2017 Gameweek PREVIEW

Full table below:

Game Team League Home/Away Date Win Odds
Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen Werder Bremen Bundesliga Away 24/02/17 4.40
Nantes vs Dijon Dijon Ligue 1 Away 24/02/17 5.00
Inverness C vs Rangers Inverness C Scottish Premiership Home 24/02/17 4.20
Darmstadt vs Augsburg Augsburg Bundesliga Away 25/02/17 2.64
Freiburg vs Dortmund Freiburg Bundesliga Home 25/02/17 5.90
Hertha vs Ein Frankfurt Ein Frankfurt Bundesliga Away 25/02/17 4.10
RB Leipzig vs FC Koln RB Leipzig Bundesliga Home 25/02/17 1.71
Aston Villa vs Derby Aston Villa Championship Home 25/02/17 2.46
Brighton vs Reading Brighton Championship Home 25/02/17 1.67
Leeds vs Sheffield Weds Leeds Championship Home 25/02/17 2.66
Bristol Rvs vs Scunthorpe Bristol Rvs League One Home 25/02/17 2.68
Chesterfield vs Oxford Chesterfield League One Home 25/02/17 4.20
Gillingham vs Southend Gillingham League One Home 25/02/17 3.45
Oldham vs Millwall Oldham League One Home 25/02/17 3.80
Port Vale vs Bradford Port Vale League One Home 25/02/17 6.30
Carlisle vs Portsmouth Carlisle League Two Home 25/02/17 3.75
Doncaster vs Accrington Accrington League Two Away 25/02/17 5.30
Leyton Orient vs Cheltenham Leyton Orient League Two Home 25/02/17 3.35
Notts County vs Yeovil Yeovil League Two Away 25/02/17 3.25
Guingamp vs Monaco Guingamp Ligue 1 Home 25/02/17 5.20
Lille vs Bordeaux Lille Ligue 1 Home 25/02/17 2.65
Nancy vs Toulouse Nancy Ligue 1 Home 25/02/17 2.60
Chelsea vs Swansea Chelsea Premier League Home 25/02/17 1.28
Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough Crystal Palace Premier League Home 25/02/17 2.18
Hull vs Burnley Hull Premier League Home 25/02/17 2.22
Alaves vs Valencia Alaves Primera Division Home 25/02/17 2.78
Betis vs Sevilla Betis Primera Division Home 25/02/17 3.90
Eibar vs Malaga Eibar Primera Division Home 25/02/17 2.06
Leganes vs La Coruna Leganes Primera Division Home 25/02/17 2.48
St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Kilmarnock Scottish Premiership Away 25/02/17 6.90
Napoli vs Atalanta Atalanta Serie A Away 25/02/17 6.80
Ingolstadt vs M’gladbach Ingolstadt Bundesliga Home 26/02/17 2.84
Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim Hoffenheim Bundesliga Away 26/02/17 3.70
Marseille vs Paris SG Marseille Ligue 1 Home 26/02/17 5.70
St Etienne vs Caen Caen Ligue 1 Away 26/02/17 5.70
Tottenham vs Stoke Tottenham Premier League Home 26/02/17 1.41
Ath Bilbao vs Granada Ath Bilbao Primera Division Home 26/02/17 1.48
Ath Madrid vs Barcelona Barcelona Primera Division Away 26/02/17 2.48
Espanol vs Osasuna Osasuna Primera Division Away 26/02/17 6.20
Villarreal vs Real Madrid Villarreal Primera Division Home 26/02/17 5.00
Crotone vs Cagliari Crotone Serie A Home 26/02/17 2.56
Inter vs Roma Inter Serie A Home 26/02/17 2.64
Juventus vs Empoli Juventus Serie A Home 26/02/17 1.17
Lazio vs Udinese Udinese Serie A Away 26/02/17 8.00

Please let me know if you require any more info or analysis on any of the games featured which was not covered on the individual article for that league this weekend. Happy betting!

English Championship – 24th-26th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in League Two. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Aston Villa vs Derby – 50pts stake – Aston Villa are currently 2.46 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.60, a 21.8% gap in implied % terms.

Aston Villa have a 124pt Real TR advantage entering this game (580 to 456) – Villa have been in dire form as of late, having taken two points from their last nine league games, putting Steve Bruce under pressure. Looking at their stats a bit more, they haven’t played quite as badly as you might think. They’ve generally created as many chances as the other team – they’ve had 41 shots on target in their last 9 league games, but have only scored 5 goals, which is a terrible conversion rate and the sort of stat that should regress to the mean in time. Looking at Adjusted TR:

Derby have themselves been inconsistent this season and having kept most games tight earlier in the campaign, they suddenly can’t stop scoring…or conceding. This is an odd one to predict and would normally be the sort of game I’d be horrified about recommending a 50pt bet for, but all bad runs of form come to an end sometime. £12m striker Scott Hogan’s absence after an ankle injury will be a blow for Villa though.

Leeds vs Sheffield Wednesday – 10pts stake – Leeds are currently 2.66 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.05, a 11.1% gap in implied % terms.

Leeds have a 34pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (549 to 515) – Wednesday’s run of good form came to a surprise end when losing midweek to Brentford at home. Both teams appear to be slightly over-performing their Adjusted TR at the moment, with both of them ranked on this measure outside the top six:

Leeds’ form has been choppier recently than their opponents, but they are strong at home, holding a 11-2-4 record (23-12, +11 GD). Our schedule strength matrix pegs Wednesday as having played one of the easier away schedules during the past 20 games in the Championship too.

Brighton vs Reading – 10pts stake – Brighton are currently 1.67 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.41, a 11% gap in implied % terms.

Brighton have a 180pt Real TR advantage for this one (628 to 448) – Brighton have navigated a potentially tricky schedule in recent weeks well as they continue their push to the Premier League and hold a four point advantage over Huddersfield in third, who can’t stop winning right now. Reading’s hopes of automatic promotion are far slimmer, but they sit in the playoff places despite a Team Rating that is far below their actual league position. Despite being 4th in the Championship, Reading sit 17th in Adjusted TR:

Why is this? Reading have had 405 shots on goal and 487 shots on goal conceded this season. They’ve also had 136 shots on target and 162 shots on target conceded this season. On both measures, they’ve given up more than they’ve had, which gives them a negative shots ratio. It’s very rare for a team to be able to maintain a negative shots ratio long term and continue to prosper as it suggests they’re converting chances or stopping chances from being converted at an unsustainable long term rate. This is why we keep backing against Reading, and away at a fellow promotion rival, we think we might be right.

Spanish Primera Division – 24th-26th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 15th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eibar vs Malaga – 50pts stake – Eibar are currently 2.06 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.45, a 20.2% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 159pt Real TR advantage entering this game (591 to 432) – Eibar have been tipped several times by us at Betterbet so far this season and have tended to fare pretty well except when facing elite opposition, as proven when they lost 2-0 at Sevilla last weekend. Malaga are not elite opposition. They sit 13th in La Liga and 16th on our Adjusted TR metric:

Eibar are unbeaten in their last eight league games against bottom half of the table opposition and have a strong home record (7-2-3, 19-13, +6 GD). Malaga meanwhile, have failed to win a game away from home this season and by our schedule strength matrix have encountered the second easiest away schedule over the last 20 games in La Liga.

Villarreal vs Real Madrid – 50pts stake – Villarreal are currently 5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.65, a 17.7% gap in % terms.

Villarreal have a 36pt Real TR deficit going into this game (557 to 593). I was surprised by Villarreal’s comparatively small Real TR deficit for this one but delving deeper into the stats, Villarreal have the third highest Adjusted TR at home in the division over the past 20 games:

They also have a pretty strong home record (7-3-2, 21-9, +12 GD) having only lost to Valencia and Alaves so far this term at El Madrigal – they haven’t been defeated by any top half team at home so far this season. Real Madrid have been dominant at the Bernabeu this season but this hasn’t quite been the same on the road, they’ve lost to Valencia and Sevilla recently away and another away defeat could really throw the title race back open again.

Athletic Bilbao vs Granada – 10pts stake – Athletic Bilbao are currently 1.48 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.29, a 9.8% gap in % terms.

Bilbao have a 213pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (539 to 326) – Granada sit 19th in La Liga and they definitely deserve to be down in the relegation zone, looking at their Adjusted TR metric:

Their away version of this stat is even worse; they sit 20th on Adjusted Away TR with a terrible score of 279, 93pts behind Betis on 19th with 372. This is backed up by their record on the road so far this season, 0-3-9 (9-37, -28 GD). In fact, we think they’re one of the worst teams away from home in any major European league. Their draws have come at Malaga, Betis and Valencia; none yet against a team in the top half like Bilbao. Whilst Athletic’s form has been patchy of late, they really should have enough to take this one.

Real Betis vs Sevilla – 10pts stake – Real Betis are currently 3.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.07, a 7% gap in % terms.

Betis have a 68pt Real TR deficit entering this derby (490 to 558). This one’s a hotly contested derby (and believe me, the rivalry is huge), a factor that our model doesn’t take into account. Both teams’ league positions reflect fairly well their performances according to our algorithm so far this season, but Betis have performed relatively well at home during this campaign:

Betis haven’t won in five and their performances have been somewhat unpredictable – they almost beat Barcelona at home before a late equaliser, but they also lost 4-1 at basement dwellers Granada. Sevilla haven’t quite shown the consistency needed to really put together a credible title challenge despite some big wins, and will be playing this one on three days’ rest after their first leg Champions League win over Leicester City on Wednesday night.

Italian Serie A – 25th-27th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Napoli vs Atalanta – 50pts stake – Atalanta are currently 6.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.71, a 22.15% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 6pt Real TR advantage entering this game (614 to 608) – Atalanta have been one of our success stories so far this season at Betterbet and have put together an impressive streak of form to start the year. Their Team Ratings with us have tended to match their league position, so their performances haven’t been a fluke at all. This is where they currently stand in terms of Adjusted TR:

Atalanta have a good if unremarkable record away from home (6-3-4, 20-14, +6 GD) but their Adjusted Away TR is also strong – with a score of 588, they rank 2nd in Serie A on this metric. Napoli are in wonderful form themselves; they’ve won 10 and drawn 4 of their last 14 Serie A games with their last league defeat being to Juventus away back in October, with Belgian striker Dries Mertens banging in the goals. But Atalanta still look too big here.

Crotone vs Cagliari – 50pts stake – Crotone are currently 2.56 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.68, a 20.6% gap in % terms.

Crotone have a 91pt Real TR advantage entering this game (423 to 332) – Crotone may be nine points off safety in Serie A but they’ve played a tough run of games recently including Juve, Roma and Atalanta. They’re also at home to opponents in Cagliari who have over-performed this season; they sit in 14th in Serie A but bottom of the league by our Adjusted TR measure over the last 20 games:

How have Cagliari “over-performed“? They’ve scored on 12.7% of their shots (3rd highest in Serie A) whilst only 32.3% of their shots faced have been on target (3rd lowest in Serie A) – both of these marks should regress to the mean somewhat in future. Cagliari are also awful away from their home in Sardinia, holding a 1-2-10 away record (8-28, -20 GD).

Inter vs Roma – 50pts stake – Inter are currently 2.64 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.84, a 16.4% gap in % terms.

Inter have a 58pt Real TR advantage over their opponents for this one (619 to 561) – Roma have been perfect at home this season, but in away matches against top half Serie A teams, they have two wins and five defeats. Inter have won nine of their last ten league games, with their only defeat in that stretch being the Derby D’Italia reverse at Juventus. Whilst Inter have played the easiest home schedule over the last 20 games according to our schedule strength matrix, they still have a strong home Adjusted TR mark of 663 (4th in Serie A). Meanwhile Roma are poorer on their away mark, reflecting their weaker away record:

Juventus vs Empoli – 10pts stake – Juventus are currently 1.17 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.03, a 11.6% gap in % terms.

Juventus have a 358pt Real TR advantage for this one (710 to 352) – Juventus are tipped here as a value bet despite already being very short due to the sheer breadth of their Real TR advantage over Empoli. Looking at Adjusted TR, if anything, Empoli deserve to be lower in the table:

Empoli have played Inter and Lazio, two other top six sides in their last two games – they managed a TR of 256 at Inter and 284 at home to Lazio. These are not good numbers. It’s very difficult to imagine them getting a result in Turin.

Scottish Premiership – 24th-25th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock – 10pts stake – Kilmarnock are currently 6.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3,55, a 13.65% gap in implied % terms.

Kilmarnock have a 38pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (425 to 463) – St Johnstone are in good form entering this one and have beaten Kilmarnock’s rivals in the bottom half of the SPL over the last few weeks. Why do we like the look of Killie in this one? Given the comparative tightness and lack of separation in terms of quality in the middle of the SPL, 6.9 does on the face of it look too large and this is backed up by the teams’ respective scores on the Adjusted TR metric:

St Johnstone are also a rarity in the fact that their away record has been better than their home record so far this season. They have a 4-3-5 home record at McDiarmid Park (18-19, -1 GD).

Inverness CT vs Rangers – 10pts stake – Inverness CT are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.32, a 6.3% gap in implied % terms.

Inverness CT have a 79pt Real TR deficit coming into this match (477 to 556) – this is a relatively small Real TR deficit for a team facing Rangers, even at home. Rangers have been in disarray recently with the departure of manager Mark Warburton and his staff and they lost 2-1 at Dundee in midweek, leaving them six points behind Aberdeen in second place in the SPL.

Delving in deeper, there’s also not a huge difference between their relative home and away Adjusted TR scores:

And while Inverness CT sit bottom of the SPL, they sit 6th in Adjusted TR overall over the past 20 games with a mark of 471, which suggests that they have been under-performing their Team Rating this season. Why might that be? Caley Thistle appear to be giving up a surprising amount of goals given the number of shots that they face – indeed, 15.2% of their shots faced this season have been conceded as goals, with 37.7% of their shots on target faced this season entering their net, both highs in the SPL.

French Ligue 1 – 24th-26th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Marseilles vs PSG – 50pts stake – Marseilles are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.52, a 22.2% gap in % terms.

Marseilles have a 59pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (581 to 640) – this is traditionally the biggest game in the calendar in Ligue 1 and while PSG probably have more riding on this as they try to defend their title against the twin threats of Monaco and Nice, Marseilles are particularly strong at home, looking at their Adjusted TR:

The above tells us that Marseilles are not just strong at home, they have the biggest Adjusted Home/Away TR split in the division, with a score of 673 at home and 393 away from the Stade Velodrome. This is backed up by their 9-3-1 home record this season (21-6, +15 GD). PSG have been shakier on the road this season, but they have won their last four away games in Ligue 1.

Guingamp vs Monaco – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 5.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.02, a 13.9% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 121pt Real TR deficit coming into this one (485 vs 606) – we’ve tipped Guingamp a few times this season at home, most notably when they defeated PSG 2-1 in Brittany. Guingamp have slipped recently, losing four of their last five, but can take heart in the fact that despite being top, Monaco aren’t as lethal away as they are at home:

Guingamp have beaten Lyon, PSG and Marseilles at home this season in building their 7-3-2 home record (14-8, +6 GD) and may fancy their chances of adding another big scalp against a side who played an exhausting and exhilarating Champions League first leg midweek.

Nancy vs Toulouse – 10pts stake – Nancy are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.02, a 11% gap in % terms.

Nancy have a 29pt Real TR advantage for this game (451 to 422) – Nancy played midweek and lost a big relegation six pointer at Caen 1-0, a defeat that sent them into the relegation zone. Why do we think they’re a good value bet here? Let’s look at Toulouse’s rating – they appear to have drastically over-performed this season, they’re currently 8th in Ligue 1, but sit just 17th in Adjusted TR on an overall basis:

This poor record in terms of Adjusted Team Rating isn’t any better away from home, where their score of 368 is the third lowest in Ligue 1. This is backed up by their very poor away record so far in 2016/17, 1-6-6 (5-13, -8 GD) on the road this season.

Lille vs Bordeaux – 10pts stake – Lille are currently 2.65 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.2, a 7.8% gap in % terms.

Lille have a 6pt Real TR deficit entering this match (475 to 481) – with these two teams very close in terms of Real TR, they are also very close in terms of Adjusted TR:

Whilst Bordeaux have improved their Adjusted TR in recent weeks, coming into a good stretch of form with the exception of a home defeat to PSG, they continue to slightly over-perform their Team Rating in terms of their overall record. They are also a little bit of an anomaly this season, with the side being the only team in Ligue 1 to have a better Adjusted Away TR than their home equivalent. This suggests that they should be quite a good side away from home, but their away record of 4-5-3 this season in Ligue 1 (17-15, +2 GD) only stands out due to the rest of Ligue 1’s comparative struggles when playing away from home.