31st January-1st February ’17 – Gameweek Summary

Below is a summary of all English & Scottish football tips for EPL, Championship & SPL fixtures in this “gameweek” (fixtures taking place from Tuesday 31st January to Wednesday 1st February). This post was originally published on Tuesday 31st January at 4pm UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair on Tuesday afternoon (31st) with the exception of EPL games which were taken on Monday afternoon (30th).

There are 11 home tips in all for these midweek games and 3 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.28 and the away tips at an average of 7.4.

Short Prices – these are the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Middlesboro
  • Birmingham
  • Partick
  • Brentford
  • Barnsley
  • Burnley
  • Hearts
  • Chelsea
  • Bristol City
  • Ipswich

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Burnley
  • Hearts
  • West Ham
  • Ipswich
  • Chelsea
  • Bristol City
  • QPR
  • Partick
  • Middlesboro
  • Aberdeen

Unfortunately we’re still having issues uploading .xls files to WordPress but I have uploaded this to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

31st January-1st February ’17 Gameweek Summary

Please let me know if you require any more info or analysis on any of the games featured which was not covered on the individual article for that league this weekend. Happy betting!

Scottish Premiership – Fixtures 31st January-1st Feb’ 17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 1 away tips for these midweek fixtures. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 31st January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Hearts vs Rangers – 10pts stake – Hearts are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.25, a 11.15% gap in % terms.

Hearts have a 42pt Real TR advantage coming into this one (590 vs 548) – this is driven by each of their respective home and away Adjusted TR’s:

Hearts’ recent form has been poor in losing three of their last four league games, but an Adjusted Home TR of 680 is still very strong (even in the Scottish Premiership) and they have a 6-3-2 home record (23-8, +15 GD). Rangers meanwhile have a 5-3-3 away record (14-15, -1 GD) and their Adjusted Away TR of 509 ranks only 4th in the SPL.

Partick vs St. Johnstone – 10pts stake – Partick are currently 2.88 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.32, a 8.5% gap in % terms.

The Jags have a 31pt Real TR advantage entering this game (494 to 463) and while their Adjusted Home TR of 451 only ranks 10th in the league, St Johnstone’s Adjusted Away TR itself has been on the decline in recent weeks as can be seen in the below snapshot:

St Johnstone have won only one of their previous six away league fixtures, a win at Kilmarnock just before Christmas.

Celtic vs Aberdeen – 10pts stake – Aberdeen are currently 9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5.22, a 8.3% gap in % terms.

Aberdeen have a 105pt Real TR deficit heading into this fixture (626 to 731) but their performances have been improving recently according to our metrics and they now rank as the 2nd best team in the SPL according to Overall TR over the past 20 league games:

Although Celtic have dominated the SPL this season even by Scottish standards (21-1-0, 59-14, +45 GD), we believe Aberdeen at 9’s are still too big entering this fixture and that a team of their quality in comparison to Celtic should be shorter for this game. Aberdeen’s away record has also been good this season, taking 19 points on the road compared to 21 at home.

English Championship – Fixtures 31st Jan-2nd Feb ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips for the midweek action and 1 away tip. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 31st January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Midweek tips

Ipswich vs Derby – 10pts stake – Ipswich are currently 3.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.43, a 9.9% gap in % terms.

Ipswich have a 25 point Real TR deficit entering this one (451 to 476), but it’s Derby’s poor away record according to our metrics that is of interest here. Derby have a 5-3-5 record away from home (12-14, -2 GD) but on our Adjusted Away TR metric, they are ranked 21st in the Championship:

Ipswich themselves however also appear to be over-performing their team rating in terms of league position. They are currently ranked 21st by Adjusted overall TR yet sit 14th in the Championship, 10 points clear of the relegation zone:

Bristol City vs Sheffield Wednesday – 10pts stake – Bristol City are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.37, a 8.8% gap in % terms.

City have a 18pt Real TR deficit heading into this game (507 to 525) and you might be surprised to see us tipping them given they’ve lost their last eight games. However, they have lost all of these games by one goal each, which suggests that they’re not necessarily playing particularly badly. During this 8 game run they’ve had an Average TR per game of 435.4, which isn’t too bad given their results and suggests that their form could revert to something better soon. As a result, they are now under-performing their team rating – they sit 21st in the league but 13th in Adjusted TR:

Wednesday’s away record is itself fairly average (4-5-5, 13-15, -2 GD).

Newcastle vs QPR – 10pts stake – QPR are currently 10 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5.34, a 8.7% gap in % terms.

QPR have a 144pt Real TR differential entering this one (443 to 587) but there are some signs that they may be a little overpriced here. Newcastle have the best Away Adjusted TR in the division but are only ranked 7th at home:

QPR have the best away record in the bottom half of the table (5-2-6, 13-17, -4 GD) whilst Newcastle have lost 4 times at home this season in the league – this could be one to watch.

Burton vs Fulham – 10pts stake – Burton are currently 4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.03, a 8% gap in % terms.

The Brewers have a 83pt Real TR deficit for this game (474 to 557) – while our model rates Fulham as under-performing this season (they have the 3rd best Team Rating over the last 20 games according to our model), Burton’s relative strength at home according to Team Rating means we think they should be a little bit shorter here:

Neither team are in particularly good form at the moment, although it has to be mentioned that Burton do tend to keep things pretty tight at home (5-2-6 record, 13-12, -1 GD – under 2 goals in total per game).

Other tips

Birmingham vs Reading
Barnsley vs Wolves
Brentford vs Aston Villa

27th-30th January – Gameweek Review – Final.

Below is an final review of all English & European football tips for this “gameweek” (fixtures taking place from Friday 27th January to Monday 30th January).

We have a yield of +84.7% this weekend.

This is a profit of 593pts on a total stake of 700pts.

There were 26 home tips in all this weekend and 11 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.51 and the away tips at an average of 5.52.

11/24 home tips came in, this is 44% vs an expected (according to average odds) success rate of 28.6%.

3/10 away tips came in, this is 30% vs an expected (according to average odds) success rate of 18.1%.

In terms of our results on the new sections that we highlighted:

Short Prices – these were the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections were this weekend, WIN = bet won, LOSS = bet lost (so a draw is recorded as “LOSS”).

  • Norwich
  • – WIN

  • Leipzig
  • – WIN

  • Leverkusen
  • – LOSS (After being 2-0 up…)

  • Angers
  • – WIN

  • Preston
  • – LOSS

  • Rennes
  • – LOSS

  • Eibar
  • – WIN

  • Bastia
  • – LOSS

  • Freiburg
  • – WIN

  • Crotone
  • – WIN

  • Toulouse
  • – LOSS

That’s a 6/11 success rate.

Model Favourites – these were the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Sampdoria
  • – WIN

  • Frankfurt
  • – WIN

  • Oldham
  • – LOSS

  • Eibar
  • – WIN

  • Leganes
  • – LOSS

  • Mainz
  • – LOSS

  • Udinese
  • – WIN

  • Alaves
  • – LOSS

  • Crotone
  • – WIN

  • Las Palmas
  • – WIN

That’s a 6/10 success rate so far.

Unfortunately we’re still having issues uploading .xls files to WordPress but I have uploaded this to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

27th-30th January ’17 Gameweek Summary FINAL

English Premier League – Fixtures 31st January-1st February ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips for this midweek round of games and 1 away tip. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Monday 30th January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Burnley vs Leicester – 10pts stake – Burnley are currently 2.98 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.15, a 13% gap in % terms.

Burnley have a small 7 point Real TR differential entering this one (412 vs 405), but Burnley’s home record and performances so far this season is the reason the model’s so keen on this one. They’ve only lost at home to Swansea (1st day of the season), Arsenal (conceded a 93rd minute winner) and City (led before losing 2-1). Their record at Turf Moor this season is 8-1-3 (20-11, +9 GD).

Leicester’s away record by contrast is terrible (0-3-8, 8-24, -16 GD). Good performances haven’t been followed up with any consistency as they’ve reverted to a level we’d expect them to play at. While Leicester’s adjusted TR of 425 is 47pts higher than Burnley’s, the respective home and away Adjusted TR’s tell a different story.

West Ham vs Man City – 10pts stake – West Ham are currently 6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.68, a 11% gap in % terms.

West Ham have a 127pt Real TR deficit entering this (487 to 614), but their performances have got better recently according to our metrics, whilst City’s have declined:

West Ham were also initially under-performing their Team Ratings – they sat in the bottom three of the league through much of the autumn, yet in terms of their Adjusted TR average were performing more like a mid table team. In many ways their return of 16pts from the last eight league games has seen them revert to the mean overall.

That said, they were soundly beaten in their FA Cup 3rd Round game between these two teams a month ago, which might put some of you off…

Liverpool vs Chelsea – 10pts stake – Chelsea are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.37, a 8.9% gap in % terms.

Chelsea have a 101pt Real TR advantage coming into this clash between Klopp & Conte’s sides (690 to 589) – and look to be a significantly better team than their opponents. Indeed, they have an average Team Rating of 665 over their last 8 games, with the only dip being caused when they were beaten at Spurs (which would have been a difficult game for any side).

Liverpool on the other hand have performed poorly recently, with Klopp perhaps under a slight bit of pressure after recent performances exposed a lack of strength in depth (contrast the respective quality of players in Pool & Spurs’ FA Cup squads at the weekend). Our model also rates them as having played the 3rd weakest home schedule this season so far, which means they have a relatively poor Adjusted Home Team Rating:

Middlesbrough vs West Brom – 10pts stake – Boro are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.14, a 8.3% gap in % terms.

Boro have a 8pt Real TR differential heading into this one, which is very similar to Burnley’s over Leicester noted above (however Boro are shorter odds).

Boro are quite frankly a boring bunch to watch and I don’t recommend you actually watch this game. But they do have a significantly better home Team Rating than WBA’s away, a similar dynamic to Burnley v Leicester:

27th-30th January ’17 – Gameweek Update – Sunday evening.

Below is an update of all English & European football tips for this “gameweek” (fixtures taking place from Friday 27th January to Monday 30th January).

We have a yield of +83.8% this weekend, with two games to go at the time of writing (Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad and Las Palmas vs Valencia). This is a profit of 586.6pts on a total stake of 700pts. If Sociedad and Las Palmas both fail to win, the yield will still be above 80% (566.6 / 700 = +80.94%).

There were 26 home tips in all this weekend and 11 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.51 and the away tips at an average of 5.52.

10/24 home tips came in, this is 41.7% vs an expected (according to average odds) success rate of 28.6%.

3/10 away tips came in, this is 30% vs an expected (according to average odds) success rate of 18.1%.

In terms of our results on the new sections that we highlighted:

Short Prices – these were the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections were this weekend, WIN = bet won, LOSS = bet lost (so a draw is recorded as “LOSS”).

  • Norwich
  • – WIN

  • Leipzig
  • – WIN

  • Leverkusen
  • – LOSS (After being 2-0 up…)

  • Angers
  • – WIN

  • Preston
  • – LOSS

  • Rennes
  • – LOSS

  • Eibar
  • – WIN

  • Bastia
  • – LOSS

  • Freiburg
  • – WIN

  • Crotone
  • – WIN

  • Toulouse
  • – LOSS

That’s a 6/11 success rate.

Model Favourites – these were the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Sampdoria
  • – WIN

  • Frankfurt
  • – WIN

  • Oldham
  • – LOSS

  • Eibar
  • – WIN

  • Leganes
  • – LOSS

  • Mainz
  • – LOSS

  • Udinese
  • – WIN

  • Alaves
  • – LOSS

  • Crotone
  • – WIN

  • Las Palmas
  • – Still to play.

That’s a 5/10 success rate so far.

Unfortunately we’re still having issues uploading .xls files to WordPress but I have uploaded this to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

27th-30th January ’17 Gameweek Summary

A full review will be published Tuesday morning following the Las Palmas v Valencia game.

27th-30th January ’17 – Gameweek Summary – all tips.

Below is a summary of all English & European football tips for this “gameweek” (fixtures taking place from Friday 27th January to Monday 30th January). This post was originally published on Thursday 26th January at 12pm UK time. All odds were taken from Betfair on Tuesday evening (24th) with the exception of Championship & League One games which were taken late on Wednesday evening (25th) following the conclusion of that night’s games in those two divisions. There are no Premier League games this weekend, there is a round of fixtures in the PL on Tuesday and Wednesday next week (31st/1st).

There are 26 home tips in all this weekend and 11 away tips. The home tips are at an average of 3.51 and the away tips at an average of 5.52.

I have added two new sections to the below as I appreciate that occasionally there is some information overload and therefore it’s nice to have a filter to cut through the noise a little bit.

Short Prices – these are the ten shortest priced tips for those of you who love some shorter priced action in your acca and need some inspiration.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Norwich
  • Leipzig
  • Leverkusen
  • Angers
  • Preston
  • Rennes
  • Eibar
  • Bastia
  • Freiburg
  • Crotone
  • Toulouse

I know that’s eleven but Crotone and Toulouse were the same price when I checked (2.52).

Model Favourites – these are the ten tips which have the largest implied difference between Bookmaker Odds and Model Odds according to our model. The larger the difference between these, the larger the stake under our differential staking plan.

These selections are this weekend:

  • Sampdoria
  • Frankfurt
  • Oldham
  • Eibar
  • Leganes
  • Mainz
  • Udinese
  • Alaves
  • Crotone
  • Las Palmas

Unfortunately we’re still having issues uploading .xls files to WordPress but I have uploaded this to Google Drive for now – you should be able to view and download this document yourself, or to copy and paste data from it for whatever purposes you might wish to use it for.

27th-30th January ’17 Gameweek Summary

Please let me know if you require any more info or analysis on any of the games featured which was not covered on the individual article for that league this weekend. Happy betting!

English League Two – Fixtures 28th January ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tips and 5 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the evening of Tuesday 24th January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Portsmouth vs Exeter – 10pts stake – Exeter are currently 4.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.96, a 12.1% gap in % terms.

This is an intriguing clash between two teams challenging for the playoff places in League Two. Both sides are pretty near to each other in terms of Adjusted TR:

While both teams are strong at home and on the road, respectively:

In fact Exeter have the best away record in League Two on points alone, a 9-1-4 away record (27-14, +13 GD). In fact the disparity between how much better they are away from home compared to at St James’s Park is probably the most extreme of any side in the Football League.

Notts County vs Crawley – 10pts stake – Crawley are currently 3.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.37, a 11% gap in % terms.

Crawley have a 55pt Real TR advantage heading into this one (441 to 386) with County staring down the barrel of relegation to the National League. County are woeful at home (1-5-8, 11-21, -10 GD) and have the lowest Adjusted TR in League Two:

Mansfield vs Leyton Orient – 10pts stake – Orient are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.99, a 10.7% gap in % terms.

Orient have a 72pt Real TR deficit entering this one (432 to 504) – yet Orient are significantly nearer to Mansfield in terms of their Adjusted TR, having just a 45pt deficit (436 to 481). This suggests that Mansfield have played a slightly easier schedule over their past 20 games than Orient:

For a team in relegation danger, Orient have a relatively good away record (4-3-5, 16-19, -3 GD). Their troubles have come at home, with 10 defeats at Brisbane Road from 14 games.

Luton vs Cambridge – 10pts stake – Cambridge are currently 3.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.61, a 10.1% gap in % terms.

There is a marginal Real TR difference of 3pts for this clash between two teams chasing the playoffs (528 to 525). Cambridge have a pretty decent away record of 6-3-3 (18-11, +7 GD) and are one of eleven teams in League Two who have won more games away from home than at home during this season (which is an extraordinarily high number – just as a contrast, 3 teams have done this in the Premier League). Luton are also one of these 11 sides, which makes Cambridge a pretty good back tomorrow given this is also backed up in the underlying Adjusted Home TR stats – Luton’s Adjusted Home TR of 551 places them 9th in L2.

English League One – Fixtures 28th January ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the evening of Wednesday 25th January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Oldham vs Bradford – 50pts stake – Oldham are currently 4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.29, a 18.7% gap in % terms.

Oldham have a 87pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (455 to 542), and this may seem like something of a push. But they picked up a vital win mid-week at home to playoff chasing Peterboro and their form appears to have improved as of late. This has also been reflected in their Adjusted Home TR, which has climbed sharply in recent weeks:

Bradford’s away Adjusted TR of 492 is good enough for 8th, which is respectable, but lower than their current league position suggests it should be.

English Championship – Fixtures 28th January ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the evening of Wednesday 25th January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Norwich vs Birmingham – 10pts stake – Norwich are currently 1.78 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.49, a 11% gap in % terms.

Norwich have a large 160pt Real TR advantage entering this one (586 to 426) and should be more comfortable favourites here according to our ratings.

The Canaries’ overall Adjusted Team Rating has improved in recent weeks to 553, which places them 5th in the Championship. This suggests that they’re currently under-performing in terms of their league position, where they sit 10th, 5 points off the playoffs. Meanwhile Birmingham according to the below metric appear to be over-performing their league position – they still sit in mid-table despite not having won any of their last six.

Preston vs Ipswich – 10pts stake – Preston are currently 1.96 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.78, a 5.3% gap in % terms.

Preston have a 81pt Real TR lead for this one (519 vs 438) and have a fairly comfortable lead in Adjusted TR:

Ipswich have had a relatively easy away schedule so far this season according to our schedule matrix (in the bottom quartile in the Championship in terms of degree of difficulty) yet have a disappointing 3-2-8 (9-19, -10 GD) away record.