For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.
We have 3 home tips for this midweek round of games and 1 away tip. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Monday 30th January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
Burnley vs Leicester – 10pts stake – Burnley are currently 2.98 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.15, a 13% gap in % terms.
Burnley have a small 7 point Real TR differential entering this one (412 vs 405), but Burnley’s home record and performances so far this season is the reason the model’s so keen on this one. They’ve only lost at home to Swansea (1st day of the season), Arsenal (conceded a 93rd minute winner) and City (led before losing 2-1). Their record at Turf Moor this season is 8-1-3 (20-11, +9 GD).
Leicester’s away record by contrast is terrible (0-3-8, 8-24, -16 GD). Good performances haven’t been followed up with any consistency as they’ve reverted to a level we’d expect them to play at. While Leicester’s adjusted TR of 425 is 47pts higher than Burnley’s, the respective home and away Adjusted TR’s tell a different story.
West Ham vs Man City – 10pts stake – West Ham are currently 6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.68, a 11% gap in % terms.
West Ham have a 127pt Real TR deficit entering this (487 to 614), but their performances have got better recently according to our metrics, whilst City’s have declined:
West Ham were also initially under-performing their Team Ratings – they sat in the bottom three of the league through much of the autumn, yet in terms of their Adjusted TR average were performing more like a mid table team. In many ways their return of 16pts from the last eight league games has seen them revert to the mean overall.
That said, they were soundly beaten in their FA Cup 3rd Round game between these two teams a month ago, which might put some of you off…
Liverpool vs Chelsea – 10pts stake – Chelsea are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.37, a 8.9% gap in % terms.
Chelsea have a 101pt Real TR advantage coming into this clash between Klopp & Conte’s sides (690 to 589) – and look to be a significantly better team than their opponents. Indeed, they have an average Team Rating of 665 over their last 8 games, with the only dip being caused when they were beaten at Spurs (which would have been a difficult game for any side).
Liverpool on the other hand have performed poorly recently, with Klopp perhaps under a slight bit of pressure after recent performances exposed a lack of strength in depth (contrast the respective quality of players in Pool & Spurs’ FA Cup squads at the weekend). Our model also rates them as having played the 3rd weakest home schedule this season so far, which means they have a relatively poor Adjusted Home Team Rating:
Middlesbrough vs West Brom – 10pts stake – Boro are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.14, a 8.3% gap in % terms.
Boro have a 8pt Real TR differential heading into this one, which is very similar to Burnley’s over Leicester noted above (however Boro are shorter odds).
Boro are quite frankly a boring bunch to watch and I don’t recommend you actually watch this game. But they do have a significantly better home Team Rating than WBA’s away, a similar dynamic to Burnley v Leicester: