Category Archives: Italian Serie A

Italian Serie A 28th-30th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 5 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Thursday 27th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Atalanta vs Juventus – 100pts stake – Atalanta are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.56, a 37.2% gap in terms (not a mis-print).

Atalanta have a 4pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (613 to 609) – This is easily the biggest divergence in model odds versus real odds in an implied percentage odds figure we’ve had yet this season. Even in backtesting over the course of 16 seasons, this would probably be one of the biggest differences between Model Odds and real odds we’ve seen. How?

Atalanta’s performances have slipped slightly recently, despite a five game unbeaten run since losing 7-1 to Inter. They had lower individual game team ratings than their opponents in matches against Roma and Bologna, yet took four points – and has time goes on if these performances displace older games where they did play well, their rolling average figures will decrease. Yet they still have a comparatively high rating, particularly at home:

Juve meanwhile, continue to roll on at the top of the table, swatting aside all-comers to maintain an eight point lead at the head of Serie A. Yet their away average rating has slipped somewhat over the last few games too as they laboured against Udinese, Samp and Napoli:

This isn’t to say there’s an issue with Juve as such – it’s just that the inputs into the model (shots, shots on target, goals and how teams convert chances and stop teams converting chances) mean that we think the teams are far more even than people would think. Atalanta have won 60% or so of their home games this season, Juventus have lost 25% or so of theirs – it’s not outrageous that the home side in this situation has a better chance of winning than the bookmakers might suggest.

Torino vs Sampdoria – 50pts stake – Samp are currently 5.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.4, a 22.5% gap in % terms.

Samp have a 23pt Real TR advantage entering this one (502 to 479) – This seems like a strange one, but Samp have come up repeatedly in our tips recently, with a rather mixed record. We tipped them when they won at Inter but they’ve since lost to Sassuolo and Crotone. They’re an inconsistent team who seem to perhaps prefer playing against the bigger sides.

Torino have been strong at home this season with their only loss being against their city rivals Juventus. But we have noted a downward trend in their home performances as of late which accentuates Samp’s chances in the eyes of our model:

Empoli vs Sassuolo – 50pts stake – Sassuolo are currently 3.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.23, a 18.2% gap in % terms.

Sassuolo have a 42pt Real TR advantage (421 to 379) – This game sees both teams approaching it in good form, with Sassuolo navigating a three game stretch against Atalanta, Samp and Napoli without defeat, whilst Empoli appear to have finally found some form in Serie A. Having beaten Fiorentina and Milan away, they’ve managed to maintain their advantage over a similarly fast-finishing Crotone in the fight to avoid relegation to Serie B.

That said, our model likes to achieve long term performance by looking at long term performance. Form comes and goes in blips but long-term performance is a better guide at predicting future results. Hopefully. Unless we’re massively wrong about everything. Who knows?

As you can see, despite recent results, Empoli still have the poorest Adjusted TR of any team in Serie A over the last 20 games. Five goals in their last three games has been a surprise – they’d previously scored just 17 goals in their first 30 Serie A games this season. Disregard the last few weeks and back Sassuolo here.

Cagliari vs Pescara – 10pts stake – Pescara are currently 5.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.97, a 14.85% gap in % terms.

Cagliari have a 23pt Real TR advantage here (428 to 405) – Pescara, 15 points from safety with five games to play are practically doomed, but we think they might just be able to hang on for another week before they have their grasping fingertips kicked off the windowledge of Nakatomi Plaza. Not a particularly in-season film reference I know.

Despite a difference between them of 24 points over the course of the season, there’s not a huge deal separating them on Average TR:

Pescara have averaged just 345 over their last six games on individual game Team Rating, but they have played some tough opponents over this stretch, including Roma, Juve and Atalanta:

Also, are you really willing to back against a team nicknamed the Dolphins? Do you want to have dolphin blood on your hands?

Italian Serie A 22nd-24th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Udinese vs Cagliari – 50pts stake – Udinese are currently 1.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.36, a 21.5% gap in terms.

Udinese have a 180pt Real TR advantage going into this game (551 to 371) – Udinese’s five game unbeaten streak was ended when losing 3-0 to Napoli last Saturday, a result that left them just two points above their Sardinian opponents this weekend. But our metrics dictate a huge disparity in the quality of these two sides’ performances. Let’s look at our overall Adjusted TR table:

As you can see, Udinese have a huge advantage. Why is that? Cagliari’s ratio of 42% of their shots being on target is very high and unsustainable in the long term – the league average is closer to 35%. Cagliari have also been far weaker defensively than their opponents this season; they’ve conceded an average of 17 shots per game to Udinese’s 12.6 shots. It’s difficult to maintain such a high percentage of shots on target without that regressing in the future, or keeping so many chances out at the other end.

Sampdoria vs Crotone – 10pts stake – Sampdoria are currently 1.91 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.49, a 14.9% gap in terms.

Samp have a 145pt Real TR advantage entering this one (525 to 380) – Samp may not have much to play for being firmly rooted in mid-table (don’t mention “arranged games” yet haha) but should have too much for a Crotone side attempting a desperate late escape. Crotone beat Chievo and Inter before drawing at Torino, but they have a pretty poor away record this season of 1-3-12 (10-29, -19 GD) and this is reflected in their Adjusted Away TR stat, ranking them 19th in Serie A on this measure:

Samp continue to be inconsistent – we tipped them to win at Sassuolo which they lost, but they’ve also beaten Inter recently and played well when losing by a single goal at home to Juve. That said, the bottom three in Serie A have all been relatively speaking, very poor this season and this should be a fairly safe back.

Fiorentina vs Inter – 10pts stake – Inter are currently 2.72 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.05, a 12.1% gap in % terms.

Inter have a 65pt Real TR advantage entering this one (636 to 571) – Inter were robbed last week in a game where we tipped them for a 50pt stake at home to Milan. They led 2-0 before conceding a 97th minute equaliser in a game where the ref added two further minutes on to the end of stoppage time allowing Milan to score a late goal from a corner that barely crossed the line (I’m not bitter or anything, honest).

Despite a slight regression in performances since the period immediately after the winter break, Inter have continued to perform well and have the highest Adjusted Away TR in Serie A over the past 20 games:

Whilst Inter’s strong form has subsided as of late, Fiorentina managed the impressive task of losing 2-1 at home to Empoli last weekend – a real shock against one of the worst teams in a major European league. Fancy Inter to come back here and use some of the anger from last week to inflict a defeat on their opponents.

Italian Serie A 15th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 4 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 11th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Sassuolo vs Sampdoria – 50pts stake – Sampdoria are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.97, a 21.3% gap in % terms.

Sampdoria have a 77pt Real TR advantage for this fixture (502 to 425) – Samp have not had the best of away records this season but have shown a marked improvement recently, beating Milan, Genoa and Inter and drawing at Palermo in their last four games on the road. And while their away form improves, Sassuolo have not matched that in their recent home displays. They currently have a very poor Adjusted Home TR:

As you can see they also have a Home/Away Adjusted TR split of -1.61, 20th and last in Serie A. This means that we rate their performances as being marginally better away from home than at home this season and this is backed up by the fact that they’ve taken 16 points each home and away this term.

Inter vs AC Milan – 50pts stake – Inter are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.56, a 18.7% gap in terms.

Inter have a 127pt Real TR advantage entering this game (641 to 514) – This is a slightly difficult one to analyse for us as our model partly works on weighting and assessing home and away performance, but with the two clubs sharing a stadium at the San Siro, this can’t really be done for this game. Instead, we’ve just looked at overall performance, where Inter have a significant advantage despite a recent downturn in form that has seen them lose to Sampdoria and Crotone. That said, their 20 game overall average Team Rating still looks good, as can be seen below:

Milan may have overtaken Inter in the league, but we’re less convinced about whether they can stay above their city rivals. Their Adjusted TR of 514 places them just 10th in Serie A and this figure hasn’t improved much in recent weeks, due to them mostly beating up a succession of lower-ranked teams like Pescara, Palermo, Genoa and Sassuolo. They failed the one big test they did have in losing 2-1 at Juve.

Roma vs Atalanta – 50pts stake – Atalanta are currently 6.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.12, a 17.4% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 33pt Real TR deficit for this match (593 to 626) – Atalanta had a surprising slip-up in drawing 1-1 at home to Sassuolo at the weekend, but had 17 shots to their opponents’ 4 and would have won if not for shoddy finishing. Aside from that, they’ve continued to be impressive and given they won at Napoli at similar odds, we don’t think it’s wrong to feel the same way here.

While Atalanta have a relatively large home/away Adjusted TR split, that doesn’t stop them being good away. They have a 8-3-5 (28-21, +7 GD) record and that goal difference would be better if they hadn’t bizarrely capitulated uncharacteristically 7-1 at Inter a few weeks back. Make no mistake, Roma are still very good and should be favourites here given their Real TR advantage but 6.8 looks all sorts of wrong given the Bergamo side’s record this campaign.

Napoli vs Udinese – 10pts stake – Udinese are currently 12 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.62, a 13.3% gap in % terms.

Udinese have a 94pt Real TR deficit for this visit (506 to 600) – Double figure odds sounds like a live outside chance here for a Udinese side that has gone five unbeaten in Serie A and whose underlying performance stats seem to show a side perhaps ever so slightly under-performing this season. Looking at their overall Adjusted TR stats, they don’t seem too far apart on this metric:

Napoli’s home record of course is very good at 10-4-2 (34-17, +17 GD) but it hasn’t quite been enough given Juve’s 100% home record and Roma’s near perfect displays at home to keep up in the race for the Scudetto. One word of caution against Udinese though, may be their record against the top four this season, collecting just one point from games against Juve, Roma, Napoli and Lazio (a 1-1 draw at home to Juve on the 5th March).

Italian Serie A 8th-9th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 4th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Atalanta vs Sassuolo – 10pts stake – Atalanta are currently 1.53 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.25, a 14.7% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 209pt Real TR advantage for this one (639 to 430) – We tipped Atalanta to win at the weekend and they did so during an otherwise poor weekend for us, thrashing Empoli 5-0 away. They have the 3rd best Adjusted TR overall over the last 20 games and have been a consistent performer for us so far this season. They’ve also been very consistent; they haven’t dropped points to a bottom half of the table team since losing at home to Udinese in mid-December.

In addition to this, they also have the 3rd highest Home/Away split in Team Rating of any team in Serie A over the last 20 games, with an Adjusted Home TR of 683 and an Adjusted Away TR of 549 giving them a split of +134. Sassuolo have lost their last three games and being comfortably clear of the relegation zone have little to play for.

Udinese vs Genoa – 10pts stake – Udinese are currently 1.83 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.56, a 9.65% gap in % terms.

Udinese have a 122pt Real TR advantage for this match (554 to 432) – Genoa have a poor away record of 3-2-10 (12-29, -17 GD) and have only won once away (at Empoli) since the 2nd October. Meanwhile Udinese have a relatively strong Adjusted Home TR in relation to their league position; we rank them 7th on this metric:

The home side also have a relatively strong average individual game Team Rating of 532 over their last five games, a run that has included Pescara, Palermo, Juventus, Lazio and Torino.

Bologna vs Roma – 10pts stake – Bologna are currently 7.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.46, a 9.6% gap in % terms.

Bologna have a 106pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (482 to 588) – This is our upset pick of the weekend, with our metrics indicating that Roma are slightly weaker away from home than their league position would suggest:

Roma’s away record also backs this up, it’s strong, but not quite as strong as others around them (8-2-5, 24-15, +9 GD). Bologna achieved back to back wins versus Sassuolo and Chievo before losing at Fiorentina at the weekend.

Juventus vs Chievo – 10pts stake – Juventus are currently 1.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.13, a 8.8% gap in % terms.

Juve have a 256pt Real TR advantage entering this game (664 to 408) – The Bianconeri’s lead at the top of Serie A was cut to six points following their draw at Napoli on Sunday night, but they still have a formidable record against opposition in the bottom half of the table this season. Chievo were previously in a good run of form but this has been ended now with defeats at Bologna and a home loss to relegation certainties Crotone. They’re 11th in Serie A, but our Adjusted Away TR metric ranks them 16th in Serie A over the last twenty games:

Italian Serie A – 1st April-3rd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Torino vs Udinese – 50pts stake – Udinese are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.37, a 19.4% gap in % terms.

Udinese have a 29pt Real TR advantage for this one (520 to 491) – Udinese have seen an improvement in form recently, first holding leaders Juve to a 1-1 draw at home before beating relegation facing Palermo and Pescara. They’ve also seen an improvement in Adjusted TR over the last few games, with their opponents moving in the other direction:

Whilst Torino with star striker Andrea Belotti have a strong home record and the firepower to hurt their opponents, they have an average individual game Team Rating of 475 over their past seven games in Serie A, a span we’ve chosen as they’ve played a fairly balanced selection of teams during this period.

Genoa vs Atalanta – 10pts stake – Atalanta are currently 2.18 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.75, a 11.1% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 112pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (585 to 473) – Atalanta shook off their 7-1 hammering at Inter by beating Pescara 3-0 at home before the international break. Any outside chance of a Champions League spot might have died with that thrashing by the Nerazzurri but they still have high hopes of making European football next season and their underlying metrics still look strong:

Their hosts sit 16th in Serie A and whilst we believe that they’ve perhaps slightly under-performed their true performance level this season, they do have a mediocre home record this season (4-6-4, 18-14, +4 GD). With their opponents continuing to be undervalued according to our metrics, we’re backing another win for Atalanta.

Roma vs Empoli – 10pts stake – Roma are currently 1.19 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.05, a 10.9% gap in % terms.

Roma have a 284pt Real TR advantage coming into this game (633 to 349) – Empoli may sit outside the relegation zone with a seven point cushion over Palermo, but in any other season with an average of 0.75pts per game they’d be toast. They’re even worse when you look at the results of our model; they sit 20th and last in Adjusted TR and 19th in Adjusted TR away from home:

Empoli have lost their last six in Serie A and haven’t won in eight – it says a lot for the sides below them that they’re not in the relegation zone, let alone not even being in real relegation danger. Yet…

Palermo vs Cagliari – 10pts stake – Palermo are currently 2.38 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.91, a 10.25% gap in % terms.

Palermo have a 51pt Real TR advantage for this match (416 to 365) – Yet…Empoli may be in danger if this tip comes up trumps. Seven points from safety with nine games to go, Palermo have won just once at home all season (versus Crotone). Yet in what little I’ve seen of them they have thrown away opportunities to improve that record (most notably versus Sampdoria) and our metrics show that given Cagliari’s own away weaknesses, they have to be given a real chance here. Here’s a comparison of the sides’ respective home and away Team Ratings:

For any side to have an away Team Rating of less than 300 is pretty catastrophic – the only other sides with that mark this season in Europe’s top leagues are Granada and Darmstadt, neither of whom has covered themselves in glory during this campaign.

Italian Serie A – 18th-19th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 14th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Atalanta vs Pescara – 10pts stake – Atalanta are currently 1.27 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.1, a 12.3% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 274pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (664 to 390) – We tipped Atalanta last weekend at Inter and looked on aghast as they went down 7-1 in the battle of the Nerazzurri. Is the party over? Not yet. We like to look at longer term trends than just one match and over the past 20 games they still have the 3rd highest average Team Rating in Serie A. Secondly, Atalanta conceded 12 shots in that game, 8 shots on target and conceded 7 goals. Atalanta have conceded goals on 30.3% of their shots on target this season – their “expected goals conceded” from shots on target in that game would have been around 2.4.

Also, they’re at home to Pescara. Whilst they’re actually an anomaly in the sense of having a higher Adjusted TR away from home than at home, they’re still only ranked 16th by this measure in Serie A. While that’s better than their league position would suggest, they are 10 points off safety and by this stage of the season, if your results aren’t matching your performances, you’re in deep trouble.

Bologna vs Chievo – 10pts stake – Bologna are currently 2.36 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.91, a 9.95% gap in % terms.

Bologna have a 54pt Real TR advantage for this match (469 to 415) – We tipped Bologna to beat Sassuolo away last weekend and they delivered the goods in a 1-0 victory. On the face of it there’s not much between these teams and I was slightly surprised that the model considers Bologna a value bet, but Chievo have seen their Adjusted TR drop a fair bit in recent weeks:

Torino vs Inter – 10pts stake – Inter are currently 2.04 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.72, a 9.1% gap in % terms.

Inter have a 117pt Real TR advantage for this game (615 to 498) – Inter have been on a remarkable run of late that has led them to being now ranked 1st in Overall TR and 3rd in Adjusted TR in Serie A:

They have not lost to a team outside the top three since the 30th October – and they’ve also been thrashing weaker sides. Before beating Atalanta 7-1, they stuffed Cagliari 5-1 away and a price of above evens for this one looks very attractive. Torino on the other hand are deceiving no one – they are where they should be by our metrics – they’re 10th in the league and 9th on overall season Team Rating.

Sampdoria vs Juventus – 10pts stake – Sampdoria are currently 7.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.48, a 8.8% gap in % terms.

Samp have a 118pt Real TR deficit for this fixture (516 to 634) – This is clearly going to be our long shot of the weekend in Italy. Samp are on a good run of form and having won the Derby della Lanterna last weekend, have gone 7 games unbeaten in Serie A (and their two prior defeats were at Atalanta and Napoli). Over that 7 game run, their average Team Rating has been 550, a pretty healthy figure:

Juve meanwhile, are still clearly a very good side and are in a dominant position in the title race, eight points clear of Roma. But their Team Rating has declined in recent weeks – their 20 game average was 691 after the Cagliari game on the 12th February, it is now 640 having played Palermo, Empoli, Udinese and Milan since (the Udinese match is the only one of those four they played away from home). This could just be an upset to re-open the title race somewhat.

Italian Serie A – 10th-13th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 7th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Chievo vs Empoli – 50pts stake – Chievo are currently 2.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.54, a 17.2% gap in % terms.

Chievo have a 130pt Real TR advantage entering this match (457 to 327) – We seem to back against Empoli every week and it’s not without good reason. Despite being outside the relegation zone in Serie A, they are a really bad team, particularly away from home. Let’s have a look at the Adjusted Home and Adjusted Away TR’s:

Empoli have lost their last four and have a 1-4-8 (6-19, -13 GD) record away from home this season. Chievo are no great shakes and are perhaps even guilty of over-performing their team rating this season (league position being better than what their performances according to their TR would suggest) but over evens for them to win at home is definitely too much.

Pescara vs Udinese – 10pts stake – Udinese are currently 2.44 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.79, a 14.9% gap in % terms.

Udinese have a 112pt Real TR advantage entering this game (496 to 384) – Backing teams away from home in the bottom half of the table is a risky game, but it is slightly less risky against a side who have won once at home this season and sit 10 points off safety in Serie A (imagine being 10 points worse than Empoli). Again, let’s look at their respective home and away Adjusted TR’s:

As you can see, Pescara have the worst Adjusted TR at home this season whilst Udinese, despite having a relatively poor away record (3-3-7, 10-17, -7 GD) have the 9th best in Serie A, with an average away TR of 456 over their last five away league games (which would rank in the middle of the table as well).

Sassuolo vs Bologna – 10pts stake – Bologna are currently 4.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.65, a 14.5% gap in % terms.

Bologna have a 7pt Real TR advantage for this one (455 to 448) – These two are only separated by three points in a fairly congested lower mid table in Serie A, but Sassuolo’s performances at home this season have been relatively weak:

Neither team are in great form, but Bologna’s only away defeat against a bottom half team this season has come against Udinese and they should be good enough to get at least a draw here.

Inter vs Atalanta – 10pts stake – Atalanta are currently 4.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.98, a 12.75% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 17pt Real TR deficit coming into this one (611 to 628) – Atalanta have been tipped pretty much every week by our model and most of the time they’ve delivered. They drew 0-0 at home to Fiorentina last week when tipped, but were the better team, achieving a team rating of 627. They’ve also achieved a better individual game Team Rating than their opponents in ten of their last twelve Serie A games:

Inter have been on a good run themselves, the only points they’ve dropped since the 20th November have been defeats against Napoli, Roma and Juventus, the top three sides in the league. But Atalanta are playing at a level that suggests they arguably belong in, or very near that company. They won at Napoli at even bigger odds when unfancied and will fancy themselves here.

Italian Serie A – 4th-5th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Empoli vs Genoa – 10pts stake – Genoa are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.15, a 13.1% gap in % terms.

Genoa have a 59pt Real TR advantage for this game (444 to 385) – Both teams are in the bottom five in Serie A, but there is a significant difference in performance between these sides so far this season. Empoli may be outside the relegation zone, but their performances suggest they should be propping up the table:

They are slightly better at home than away, but even at home the only two sides below them in Adjusted TR are Palermo and Pescara, who both look like going down. Genoa haven’t won in ten with an average TR of 408 during this period, which is bad, but still better than Empoli’s rating. There is a lot of crap in Serie A this season, but some teams are simply less crap than others.

Crotone vs Sassuolo – 10pts stake – Crotone are currently 3.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.74, a 9.8% gap in % terms.

Crotone have a 44pt Real TR deficit entering this one (411 to 455) – Crotone have lost their last five and haven’t beaten a top half side in Serie A this season. You know that discussion we were having about crap earlier in the post? Crotone certainly fit into that. But for a team nine points off safety, their performance levels at home haven’t been too bad:

Sassuolo haven’t quite reached the heights of last year when they qualified for the Europa League but have never really looked in any threat this season, ensconsed safely in lower mid-table. But Crotone have performed well at home against teams in the bottom half (without necessarily getting the results they deserve) and we think they’re a little bit too big here.

Atalanta vs Fiorentina – 10pts stake – Atalanta are currently 1.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.63, a 10.1% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 109pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture (660 to 551) – last weekend’s 2-0 win at Napoli may just be the trigger that stops the model highlighting Atalanta every week as a value bet. It’s difficult to keep over-pricing a team that starts to pull off victories as impressive as that, and the boys from Bergamo now stand a real chance of making the Champions League and bettering their highest ever finish in Serie A of 6th position.

The Nerazzurri now stand 2nd in Serie A in terms of Adjusted TR:

Fiorentina have played a tricky schedule recently and their form has understandably varied; losing to Milan and Roma and beating Pescara. More worrying though, for La Viola was the result at home to Torino midweek – a game they led 2-0 at half time and where they would have been out of sight were it not for great goalkeeping from Joe Hart. But they let Torino back in and top scorer Andrea Belotti got a brace to deny Fiorentina of all three points. They’ll have to be more focused this weekend in order to get anything.

Italian Serie A – 25th-27th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in Serie A. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Napoli vs Atalanta – 50pts stake – Atalanta are currently 6.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.71, a 22.15% gap in % terms.

Atalanta have a 6pt Real TR advantage entering this game (614 to 608) – Atalanta have been one of our success stories so far this season at Betterbet and have put together an impressive streak of form to start the year. Their Team Ratings with us have tended to match their league position, so their performances haven’t been a fluke at all. This is where they currently stand in terms of Adjusted TR:

Atalanta have a good if unremarkable record away from home (6-3-4, 20-14, +6 GD) but their Adjusted Away TR is also strong – with a score of 588, they rank 2nd in Serie A on this metric. Napoli are in wonderful form themselves; they’ve won 10 and drawn 4 of their last 14 Serie A games with their last league defeat being to Juventus away back in October, with Belgian striker Dries Mertens banging in the goals. But Atalanta still look too big here.

Crotone vs Cagliari – 50pts stake – Crotone are currently 2.56 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.68, a 20.6% gap in % terms.

Crotone have a 91pt Real TR advantage entering this game (423 to 332) – Crotone may be nine points off safety in Serie A but they’ve played a tough run of games recently including Juve, Roma and Atalanta. They’re also at home to opponents in Cagliari who have over-performed this season; they sit in 14th in Serie A but bottom of the league by our Adjusted TR measure over the last 20 games:

How have Cagliari “over-performed“? They’ve scored on 12.7% of their shots (3rd highest in Serie A) whilst only 32.3% of their shots faced have been on target (3rd lowest in Serie A) – both of these marks should regress to the mean somewhat in future. Cagliari are also awful away from their home in Sardinia, holding a 1-2-10 away record (8-28, -20 GD).

Inter vs Roma – 50pts stake – Inter are currently 2.64 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.84, a 16.4% gap in % terms.

Inter have a 58pt Real TR advantage over their opponents for this one (619 to 561) – Roma have been perfect at home this season, but in away matches against top half Serie A teams, they have two wins and five defeats. Inter have won nine of their last ten league games, with their only defeat in that stretch being the Derby D’Italia reverse at Juventus. Whilst Inter have played the easiest home schedule over the last 20 games according to our schedule strength matrix, they still have a strong home Adjusted TR mark of 663 (4th in Serie A). Meanwhile Roma are poorer on their away mark, reflecting their weaker away record:

Juventus vs Empoli – 10pts stake – Juventus are currently 1.17 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.03, a 11.6% gap in % terms.

Juventus have a 358pt Real TR advantage for this one (710 to 352) – Juventus are tipped here as a value bet despite already being very short due to the sheer breadth of their Real TR advantage over Empoli. Looking at Adjusted TR, if anything, Empoli deserve to be lower in the table:

Empoli have played Inter and Lazio, two other top six sides in their last two games – they managed a TR of 256 at Inter and 284 at home to Lazio. These are not good numbers. It’s very difficult to imagine them getting a result in Turin.

Italian Serie A – 17th-19th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 7 home tips and 1 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 15th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Sampdoria vs Cagliari – 10pts stake – Sampdoria are currently 1.72 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.41, a 12.9% gap in % terms.

Samp have a 160pt Real TR advantage entering this game (511 to 351) – Samp had been under-performing their team rating slightly, but appear now to be catching up having won their last three league games to climb the table. They beat Roma and Milan before continuing their streak against Bologna last weekend.

Their opponents may sit 13 points off the relegation zone, but they’re certainly playing like a struggling team – their overall Adjusted TR sits just 19th in Serie A.

Chievo vs Napoli – 10pts stake – Chievo are currently 7.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.96, a 11.3% gap in % terms.

Chievo have a 124pt Real TR deficit for this fixture (446 to 570). Chievo have come into some form recently, winning at Lazio and Sassuolo. Strangely though, their Adjusted TR has actually slipped a little bit in recent weeks, as has Napoli’s:

Our model thinks they’ve overpriced at 7.2 due to Napoli’s slightly bumpy away form (6-3-2, 27-12, +15 GD) – they’ve scored tons away from home recently, but they have been converting a very high percentage of their chances, at an unsustainable longer term rate.

Udinese vs Sassuolo – 10pts stake – Udinese are currently 2.24 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.83, a 10.1% gap in % terms.

Udinese have a 59pt Real TR advantage entering this game (507 to 448) – Udinese and their opponents are next to each other in the table and are both in fairly average form at the moment. Udinese appear over-priced for this one though, with them holding a significant Adjusted TR advantage over Sassuolo:

Bologna vs Inter – 10pts stake – Bologna are currently 5.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.38, a 10% gap in % terms.

Bologna have a 97pt Real TR deficit entering this game – Inter may have been on a very good run of late which they recovered in beating Empoli 2-0 at home last weekend, but their away form this season is still relatively poor (5-1-6, 12-15, -3 GD).

As can be seen, Bologna’s home rating has fallen back in recent weeks, but they have had to play Napoli, Milan and a resurgent Sampdoria. Their tough stretch continues against Inter, but 5.1 to win at home still looks overpriced here.