Category Archives: English League Two

English League One & League Two Fixtures – 25th-26th March ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 8 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. As there are only two leagues with fixture rounds this weekend due to the international break, if you wish for further analysis on any of the games please let us know by commenting below, or contacting us via Facebook or Twitter. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 23rd March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips – League One

Oldham vs Sheffield United – 50pts stake – Oldham are currently 7.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.07, a 18.6% gap in implied % terms.

Shrewsbury vs Bolton – 50pts stake – Shrewsbury are currently 3.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.35, a 16.3% gap in implied % terms.

Swindon vs Millwall – 10pts stake – Swindon are currently 3.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.58, a 13.4% gap in implied % terms.

Chesterfield vs Rochdale – 10pts stake – Chesterfield are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.00, a 10.6% gap in implied % terms.

Port Vale vs MK Dons – 10pts stake – Port Vale are currently 3.65 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.68, a 9.9% gap in implied % terms.

AFC Wimbledon vs Southend – 10pts stake – AFC Wimbledon are currently 2.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.31, a 8.95% gap in implied % terms.

Gillingham vs Peterborough – 10pts stake – Gillingham are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.61, a 8.5% gap in implied % terms.

Weekend tips – League Two

Morecambe vs Mansfield – 10pts stake – Morecambe are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.11, a 9.4% gap in implied % terms.

Blackpool vs Hartlepool – 10pts stake – Hartlepool are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.73, a 9.3% gap in implied % terms.

Exeter vs Yeovil – 10pts stake – Yeovil are currently 5.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.65, a 9.2% gap in implied % terms.

Accrington vs Grimsby – 10pts stake – Grimsby are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.18, a 8.7% gap in implied % terms.

English League Two – 18th-19th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 0 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 16th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in League Two. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Plymouth vs Morecambe – 50pts stake – Morecambe are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.98, a 16% gap in implied % terms.

Morecambe have a 52pt Real TR deficit coming into this one (443 to 495) – Plymouth are fighting for promotion in League Two, but our model suggests that they could be due for a dip in form. Their current Adjusted TR suggests a team that are over-performing this season quite drastically, being 2nd in the table but just 13th in Adjusted TR over the past 20 games:

Morecambe have lost their last three in League Two, but do possess a sneakily good away record this season, picking up more points away from home than they’ve taken at the Globe Arena. Plymouth meanwhile have lost three of their last six at home (losses against Orient, Notts County and Blackpool), averaging a Team Rating of 510 during this six match stretch.

Grimsby vs Crawley – 10pts stake – Crawley are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.68, a 13.45% gap in implied % terms.

Crawley have a 23pt Real TR deficit for this game (451 to 474) – These two sides look like relatively mediocre teams, but there is an edge to be grasped at here. Whilst Crawley’s ratings reflect their position in the league, Grimsby may have a respectable home record of 7-4-7 (23-21, +2 GD) but their Home Adjusted TR places them just 22nd in League Two. Indeed, the gap between their Home and Away ratings is actually negative – they create more chances and play better away from home, which is a really rare occurrence:

In fact, looking at Grimsby’s last 10 home games, they’ve recorded lower individual game Team Ratings than their opponents in 7 of those 10 games:

English League One & League Two Fixtures – 14th March ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 4 away tips this weekend. As there are only two leagues with midweek fixture rounds this week, if you wish for further analysis on any of the games please let us know by commenting below, or contacting us via Facebook or Twitter. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Monday 13th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Midweek tips – League One

Swindon vs Sheffield United – 50pts stake – Swindon are currently 6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.95, a 17.3% gap in implied % terms.

Gillingham vs Bolton – 10pts stake – Gillingham are currently 3.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.4, a 13.4% gap in implied % terms.

Charlton vs Bradford – 10pts stake – Charlton are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.62, a 8.8% gap in implied % terms.

Oldham vs Oxford – 10pts stake – Oldham are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.87, a 7.8% gap in implied % terms.

Scunthorpe vs Rochdale – 10pts stake – Rochdale are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.89, a 7.6% gap in implied % terms.

Chesterfield vs Peterborough – 10pts stake – Chesterfield are currently 3.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.81, a 7.4% gap in implied % terms.

AFC Wimbledon vs MK Dons – 10pts stake – AFC Wimbledon are currently 2.88 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.38, a 7.3% gap in implied % terms.

Midweek tips – League Two

Portsmouth vs Grimsby – 10pts stake – Grimsby are currently 8.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.75, a 14.45% gap in implied % terms.

Accrington vs Leyton Orient – 10pts stake – Leyton Orient are currently 6.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.46, a 13.75% gap in implied % terms.

Barnet vs Yeovil – 10pts stake – Yeovil are currently 3.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.94, a 8.7% gap in implied % terms.

English League Two – 11th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 8th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in League Two. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Colchester vs Portsmouth – 10pts stake – Colchester are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.85, a 11.3% gap in implied % terms.

Colchester have a 64pt Real TR deficit going into this encounter (504 to 568) – The key stat to watch out for with this one is the gap between Colchester’s home TR and Pompey’s away TR:

Neither side have been in great form recently, but Colchester’s home form has been pretty good this season (10-2-4, 32-21, +11 GD) and 4.2 does look slightly too long here.

Barnet vs Crawley – 10pts stake – Crawley are currently 4.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.02, a 8.7% gap in implied % terms.

Crawley have a 50pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (474 to 524) – Both of these teams’ overall ratings roughly reflect where they are in the table, but Barnet have struggled at home this season, recording a 4-7-6 (17-22, -5 GD) record at The Hive this term. Whilst they’ve played better of late, they’re still ranked relatively lowly:

Crawley have not had a great away record this season, but did play better in recording victories at Colchester and Wycombe, both teams in the top half of LLeague Two

English League Two – 4th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 1st March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in League Two. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Blackpool vs Morecambe – 10pts stake – Morecambe are currently 5.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.26, a 12.5% gap in implied % terms.

Morecambe have a 80pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (452 to 532) – these two sides are next to each other in the table, and Morecambe have a strong away record (7-6-4, 24-22, +2 GD). The Shrimpers have also gone four unbeaten, including games against Portsmouth and Grimsby, both in the top half of the table. While Blackpool have the better Adjusted TR, there’s not a lot separating a lot of teams in League Two:

This is a tight one, which means the real value has to be with Morecambe here.

Portsmouth vs Crewe – 10pts stake – Crewe are currently 9.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.37, a 12.3% gap in implied % terms.

Crewe have a 209pt Real TR deficit coming into this match – this one’s definitely an outside bet with the Alex struggling at the wrong end of League Two and Pompey fighting for promotion:

However given away teams’ relatively strong performance in League Two this season, the model uses the overall home/away “split” to gauge odds, which is why we think Crewe are slightly over-priced for this match.

Crawley vs Doncaster – 10pts stake – Crawley are currently 4.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.09, a 8.8% gap in implied % terms.

Crawley have a 121pt Real TR deficit entering this encounter (474 to 595) – Doncaster are top of League Two but hadn’t won in five before triumphing 3-2 at Cambridge on Tuesday night. For a table topping team, they’re also pretty shaky on the road, with a 9-2-6 record (33-26, +7 GD). They may have the best away Adjusted TR in the division, but it’s actually not that high in comparison to other teams around them:

Crawley meanwhile sit 16th in League Two, but have the 11th best Adjusted Home TR in the division (509.6). Their home record of 7-3-5 (20-18, +2 GD) is also pretty good and suggests that they are indeed a slight value bet for this encounter.

English League Two – 25th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in League Two. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Notts County vs Yeovil – 10pts stake – Yeovil are currently 3.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.35, a 11.8% gap in implied % terms.

Yeovil have a 128pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (541 to 413) – this is an interesting one, with County having a poor home record (3-6-8, 17-25, -8 GD) and the Glovers a disappointing away one (2-6-7, 13-24, -11 GD). County’s relegation fears have been eased by a recent run of good form, but their Adjusted TR rating is still rather low.

The other story here is that Yeovil’s Adjusted TR of 531 ranks 8th in League Two over the past 20 league games. Given that it’s climbed 30pts over the last two weeks, this is more likely to be as a result of older games falling out of the sample. But it’s still significantly better than their league position would suggest:

Despite a poor away record, their Adjusted Away TR is very strong despite a poor record away from Huish Park. This suggests to us that they’re struggling to convert chances and/or letting in more shots on target than they should be on the road.

Doncaster vs Accrington – 10pts stake – Accrington are currently 5.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.37, a 10.8% gap in implied % terms.

Accrington have a 102pt Real TR deficit coming into this match (495 to 597). Accrington have struggled this season in League Two but have started to show a little form recently, echoing a Team Rating that has been better than many of their peers fighting relegation to the National League:

Doncaster are unbeaten at home this season (11-5-0, 31-14, +17 GD) but their Adjusted Home TR of 603 is ranked only 6th in League Two, which is somewhat surprising. They appear to give up chances and have a negative shots on target ratio this season (they allow a higher percentage of shots faced to be on target than their percentage of shots that are on target) but do convert chances relatively well, with 38% of their shots on target ending up in the back of the net this season.

Carlisle vs Portsmouth – 10pts stake – Carlisle are currently 3.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.68, a 10.6% gap in implied % terms.

Carlisle have a 38pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (519 to 557). This is a big game for both sides – with the top three being automatically promoted in League Two, 5th placed Pompey trail Carlisle by 6pts with a game in hand. Carlisle have a relatively strong home record so far this season (9-5-2, 30-22, +8 GD) while this is Pompey’s away Adjusted TR:

Whilst their mark of 510 is the 6th highest in League Two, it is only 25pts ahead of Carlisle’s away rating, ranked 13th. Carlisle have been inconsistent at times this season and seem to get comfortably beaten on occasion by weaker sides, but 3.75 still seems too big given their record.

Leyton Orient vs Cheltenham – 10pts stake – Orient are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.6, a 8.6% gap in implied % terms.

Orient have a 9pt Real TR deficit for this one (398 to 407) – this is a huge game at the bottom of League Two and a win for Orient could see Cheltenham replace them in the relegation zone. Orient came back from 2-0 down versus fellow relegation candidates Notts County last weekend, but then conceded another to lose 2-3. Both teams deserve to be at the bottom of the table, but Orient do have a bit of a lead when we compare their home Adjusted TR to their opponents’ away TR:

English League Two – 18th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 5 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 16th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Barnet vs Portsmouth – 10pts stake – Barnet are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.78, a 13.3% gap in implied % terms.

Barnet have a 53pt Real TR deficit entering this match (504 to 557) – Barnet are having a decent season in League Two and are currently in playoff contention. Barnet’s Adjusted TR has also improved recently, climbing from 465 to 495 over the last four games:

Pompey’s away form has been a little bit sketchy this season – they’re 6-4-5 away from Fratton Park (15-16, -1 GD). Our strength of schedule matrix also brings up some interesting info – Barnet have played the third hardest home schedule over the last 20 games in League Two, with Pompey having played the fifth easiest away schedule over the same period.

Cambridge vs Newport County – 10pts stake – Newport are currently 4.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.18, a 10.2% gap in implied % terms.

Newport have a 73pt Real TR deficit coming into this encounter (480 to 553) – Newport may be bottom of League Two, but they’ve gone 6 games unbeaten and significantly added to their squad during the January transfer window. According to their Adjusted TR, they’re starting to significantly under-perform their overall Adjusted TR mark as of late, being ranked 16th on this measure:

Cambridge meanwhile, haven’t won in 6 games, a run that has seen them slip away from the playoff places in League Two and their home form has been weaker (18pts this season) than their away form (22pts).

Exeter vs Stevenage – 10pts stake – Stevenage are currently 4.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.22, a 9.7% gap in implied % terms.

Stevenage have a 80pt Real TR deficit going into this one (521 to 601) – we’ve bigged up Exeter a couple of times this season but it’s their opponents we prefer for this one as a value bet. Stevenage’s overall Team Rating rank in League Two has improved recently, climbing from 18th to 11th in the last five league games:

Stevenage have won their last four games in League Two to move up the table into playoff contention, where they now sit just four points behind their opponents on Saturday. Whilst Exeter now have the number 1 ranked overall Adjusted TR in League Two, as you can see it’s very tight. Just 56 points separate Exeter in 1st and Stevenage in 8th:

Cheltenham vs Yeovil – 10pts stake – Yeovil are currently 3.05 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.5, a 7.3% gap in implied % terms.

Yeovil have a 61pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (523 to 462) – The Glovers had been in relegation danger but a good run has seen them lose just one of their last seven games before preparing to face Cheltenham this weekend. After winning the National League last season, Cheltenham are struggling again in League Two.

Another positive for Yeovil in this one is their relative strength away from home. Their Adjusted Away TR of 530 places them 4th in League Two:

This is an interesting one as their away record itself is pretty poor (2-6-6, 13-22, -9 GD). How come their Adjusted TR away from home is really good, but their record isn’t? We can explain this a little bit with our schedule strength matrix, which states that Yeovil have played the second toughest away record in League Two over the past 20 league games.

English Championship/League One/League Two Fixtures – 14th February ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 12 home tips and 8 away tips for this round of midweek fixtures. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Monday 13th February.

Due to time constraints between the fixtures taking place on the weekend just concluded and this current round of midweek games, unfortunately we don’t have time to provide further analysis on tips for this round of games only. If you wish for any further analysis to be provided on any individual fixture, please let us know via FB, Twitter or by commenting on this post.

Normal service will be resumed for the forthcoming weekend.

English League Two – 10th-11th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 5 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 8th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Portsmouth vs Accrington – 50pts stake – Accrington are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.67, a 20% gap in % terms.

Portsmouth have a slender 6pt Real TR advantage for this encounter (590 to 584) yet host an Accrington side far below them in the table. Accrington sit 19th in League Two and despite a recent upturn in form still aren’t out of the woods yet with regards to relegation. But they have under-performed with respect to their Overall Team Rating significantly this season:

How can a team doing so badly be doing so well according to our metrics? Accrington have created chances this season – 338 shots, 123 on target from 27 games (averaging 12.5 & 4.6 respectively). This isn’t bad. What is bad is that they’re the worst team in League Two in terms of % of shots being goals (7.7% where the average is around 14%) and that they’re the worst team in League Two in terms of % of shots on target being goals (21.1% where the average is around 31%).

Whilst they may have issues up front in terms of quality finishers, our model sees these marks regressing to the mean somewhat – it values chance creation more than chance conversion on a long term performance basis. Hence why Accrington at 5.7 kind of sounds OK to us this weekend.

Luton vs Crawley – 10pts stake – Crawley are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.21, a 13.6% gap in % terms.

Crawley have a 89pt Real TR deficit heading into this fixture (468 to 557). Whilst Luton and the visitors are separated by 11 places in the table, they are only separated by 10 points, with Crawley having a game in hand. The overall Adjusted TR figure separating the teams is also relatively small:

Luton’s home form has also been a little bit sticky this season, with them having a 6-4-4 home record (23-17, +6 GD).

Newport County vs Doncaster – 10pts stake – Newport County are currently 4.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.1, a 11.6% gap in % terms.

Newport have a 87pt Real TR deficit entering this game, but although the Welsh side are bottom of League Two, things may be on the up for them. They brought in 10 players during the January transfer window and have gone four games unbeaten in the league to put them within touching distance of safety. Their Adjusted TR has gradually crept up during the last few weeks too:

And as you can see, Doncaster have a slightly lower rating than you would expect from a team at the top of League Two. Rovers’ home form this season has been imperious, but they are a little weaker away from home as is natural (they have a 8-1-5, 29-22, +7 GD away record).

Colchester vs Barnet – 10pts stake – Barnet are currently 3.85 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.69, a 11.2% gap in % terms.

Barnet have a 10pt Real TR deficit entering this game (487 to 497). These two teams are next to each other in the table and this should be a close encounter, particularly when we look at their Adjusted TR ratings:

Looking at the above, it also appears that both teams have slightly over-performed this season when assessing their league position versus their ranking on the Adjusted TR metric, although in truth there isn’t a lot separating most of the teams in the middle of the pack in League Two.

Whilst Colchester are good at home, Barnet are also one of several teams in League Two to have a better away record this season than at home – they’ve gone 6-5-3 (22-20, +2 GD) away from The Hive this season.

English League Two – 4th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 2nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Doncaster vs Morecambe – 50pts stake – Morecambe are currently 8.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.36, a 18.1% gap in % terms.

Morecambe have a 116pt Real TR deficit for this one (453 vs 569) – this is a bit of an odd one. It’s always good to cast some further scrutiny on tips such as these generated by the model where it’s an away team at big odds with nothing much initially to suggest a surprise. But whilst Donny are clear at the top having won their last five, their Adjusted TR suggests that maybe they’ve been over-performing somewhat:

Morecambe themselves have a pretty good away record (5-3-4, 17-18, -1 GD) and also have the possible advantage of not having played for 3 weeks due to postponements. Their legs might just be a little bit fresher on Saturday.

Wycombe vs Portsmouth – 10pts stake – Wycombe are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.34, a 12.8% gap in % terms.

Wycombe have a 92 point Real TR advantage for this one (625 to 533) – this one is a clash between two sides challenging for the playoffs in League Two. The Chairboys put in a heroic performance last Saturday at White Hart Lane in their FA Cup game against Spurs, leading 2-0 and 3-2 before two late goals sent them out. The physical and mental after effects of that game may be a factor to look out for against Portsmouth, but they do have a strong home record (8-3-2, 19-10, +9 GD).

Another story going into this is that both teams have under-performed this season according to Adjusted TR – by this measure, both sides are in the top two:

Exeter vs Crewe – 10pts stake – Crewe are currently 5.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.7, a 10.1% gap in % terms.

Crewe have a 154 point Real TR deficit entering this game – this is a game where Crewe are highlighted as a possible surprise win due to Exeter’s relative weakness at home. They have a 10-1-4 away record (28-14, +14 GD) but only 4-2-7 at home (16-15, +1 GD):

Crewe haven’t won in their last ten either though, so this is most certainly a small stakes bet.

Cheltenham vs Newport County – 10pts stake – Newport County are currently 3.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.71, a 9.1% gap in % terms.

Newport have a 16pt Real TR deficit entering this one (459 vs 475) – this is one I’m more confident about. Newport are still bottom of League Two but have gone three unbeaten and signed ten players during January to bolster their playing staff. They’ve also under-performed this season according to our Adjusted TR metric:

Both teams have slightly better away records than home records this season as well (Chelts – 14pts in 15 home fixtures, 14pts in 13 away – Newport – 10pts in 13 home fixtures, 12pts in 14 away). This is one that definitely passes the eye test for me.