Category Archives: English League One

English League One & League Two Fixtures – 25th-26th March ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 8 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. As there are only two leagues with fixture rounds this weekend due to the international break, if you wish for further analysis on any of the games please let us know by commenting below, or contacting us via Facebook or Twitter. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 23rd March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips – League One

Oldham vs Sheffield United – 50pts stake – Oldham are currently 7.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.07, a 18.6% gap in implied % terms.

Shrewsbury vs Bolton – 50pts stake – Shrewsbury are currently 3.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.35, a 16.3% gap in implied % terms.

Swindon vs Millwall – 10pts stake – Swindon are currently 3.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.58, a 13.4% gap in implied % terms.

Chesterfield vs Rochdale – 10pts stake – Chesterfield are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.00, a 10.6% gap in implied % terms.

Port Vale vs MK Dons – 10pts stake – Port Vale are currently 3.65 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.68, a 9.9% gap in implied % terms.

AFC Wimbledon vs Southend – 10pts stake – AFC Wimbledon are currently 2.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.31, a 8.95% gap in implied % terms.

Gillingham vs Peterborough – 10pts stake – Gillingham are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.61, a 8.5% gap in implied % terms.

Weekend tips – League Two

Morecambe vs Mansfield – 10pts stake – Morecambe are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.11, a 9.4% gap in implied % terms.

Blackpool vs Hartlepool – 10pts stake – Hartlepool are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.73, a 9.3% gap in implied % terms.

Exeter vs Yeovil – 10pts stake – Yeovil are currently 5.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.65, a 9.2% gap in implied % terms.

Accrington vs Grimsby – 10pts stake – Grimsby are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.18, a 8.7% gap in implied % terms.

English League One 17th-18th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 15th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

We have removed Coventry from the list of tips for now – we try not to “curate” the results of the model too much, but the fact that they are so far off safety in League One means that I don’t think the usual calculations actually reflect their chances of victory in the manner they do with other teams.

Weekend tips

Oxford vs Scunthorpe – 10pts stake – Oxford are currently 2.42 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.07, a 7.1% gap in implied % terms.

Oxford have a 109pt Real TR advantage entering this one (564 to 455) – Scunthorpe finally ended their nine game run without a win when beating a team in equally bad form, Rochdale, at home on Tuesday. But their performances have fallen off massively since Christmas, with their Adjusted TR falling from 560 to 470:

Despite our model liking the look of Oxford, they’ve been in inconsistent form recently themselves, their playoff push interrupted by losing three of their last four. Why does our model like them then? One clue can be looked at here:

Oxford have scored just 9% of their shots compared to a league average of 11.5% this season and have only scored 23.6% of their shots on target compared to a league average of 29.2% – these are marks that we would expect to regress to the mean, which would imply better results for Oxford going forward, all things being equal.

English League One & League Two Fixtures – 14th March ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 4 away tips this weekend. As there are only two leagues with midweek fixture rounds this week, if you wish for further analysis on any of the games please let us know by commenting below, or contacting us via Facebook or Twitter. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Monday 13th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Midweek tips – League One

Swindon vs Sheffield United – 50pts stake – Swindon are currently 6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.95, a 17.3% gap in implied % terms.

Gillingham vs Bolton – 10pts stake – Gillingham are currently 3.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.4, a 13.4% gap in implied % terms.

Charlton vs Bradford – 10pts stake – Charlton are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.62, a 8.8% gap in implied % terms.

Oldham vs Oxford – 10pts stake – Oldham are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.87, a 7.8% gap in implied % terms.

Scunthorpe vs Rochdale – 10pts stake – Rochdale are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.89, a 7.6% gap in implied % terms.

Chesterfield vs Peterborough – 10pts stake – Chesterfield are currently 3.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.81, a 7.4% gap in implied % terms.

AFC Wimbledon vs MK Dons – 10pts stake – AFC Wimbledon are currently 2.88 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.38, a 7.3% gap in implied % terms.

Midweek tips – League Two

Portsmouth vs Grimsby – 10pts stake – Grimsby are currently 8.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.75, a 14.45% gap in implied % terms.

Accrington vs Leyton Orient – 10pts stake – Leyton Orient are currently 6.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.46, a 13.75% gap in implied % terms.

Barnet vs Yeovil – 10pts stake – Yeovil are currently 3.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.94, a 8.7% gap in implied % terms.

English League One 11th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 8th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

We have removed Coventry from the list of tips this week – we try not to “curate” the results of the model too much, but the fact that they are so far off safety in League One means that I don’t think the usual calculations actually reflect their chances of victory in the manner they do with other teams.

Weekend tips

Gillingham vs Scunthorpe – 50pts stake – Gillingham are currently 3.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 15.8% gap in implied % terms.

Gillingham have a 9pt Real TR advantage for this one (468 to 459) – If you’re wondering how a team fighting relegation has a better Real TR than their opponents challenging for promotion, here’s why:

Scunny haven’t won in eight, a run that could be catastrophic for their chances of automatic promotion. During this period, their 20 game rolling average Team Rating has declined from 542 to 472, which suggests that their poor results have reflected poor performances.

Gills are no great shakes themselves, sitting just six points off the drop zone in League One. But they have only lost once since the 8th October at Priestfield and can be considered a good bet to take the win this weekend.

Port Vale vs Swindon – 10pts stake – Port Vale are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.42, a 11.5% gap in implied % terms.

Vale have a 35pt Real TR deficit entering this game (402 to 437) – This game sees a very weak side at home to a slightly less weak side with the very weak side being over-priced according to our algorithm. If you think I’m going to write 500 words on Port Vale v Swindon… I’m not going to do that. If you really want me to do that, get in touch.

Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury – 10pts stake – Chesterfield are currently 3.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.45, a 8.5% gap in implied % terms.

Chesterfield have a 47pt Real TR deficit entering this match (400 to 447) – Home sides have done relatively well in League One this year compared to longer term averages, which is one of the reasons why home sides tend to get picked relatively often in our tips compared to other leagues that we cover. Looking at their respective home and away Adjusted Team Ratings, we can see that Chesterfield have a slight advantage:

Shrewsbury have been on somewhat of a mini-revival of late, but this has been concentrated at home, where they have won 5 league games in 2017. Their only away win this calendar year was at Scunthorpe, which looked like a great result at the time but in light of the Iron’s collapse over the last two months perhaps isn’t quite as impressive.

Oldham vs Bury – 10pts stake – Oldham are currently 2.58 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.21, a 6.6% gap in implied % terms.

Oldham have a 45pt Real TR advantage for this game (455 to 410) – This is a big local derby and a big game with regards to the relegation picture in League One. Both sides currently sit outside the drop zone and a win for either could be very significant.

As shown in the below, whilst Oldham sit 20th in the table, their home performances over the 20 game rolling average rank 16th, showing that they’re a better side at home than results might suggest:

Bury did recently win three on the bounce, but Oldham have also been in good form as of late, going five unbeaten before losing at Walsall on Saturday.

English League One 4th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 1st March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Rochdale vs Sheffield United – 50pts stake – Rochdale are currently 4.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.54, a 18.3% gap in implied % terms.

Rochdale have a 79pt Real TR deficit entering this clash (589 to 668) – Dale have fallen out of the picture for promotion in League One following an extended poor run of results., taking just three points from their last seven league fixtures. However they continue to perform well in our ratings, particularly at home:

They still have games in hand to take advantage of, and their home performances are backed up by an impressive home record (10-3-3, 31-16, +15 GD). Sheffield United have become the best team in League One after a shaky start and look a solid bet to win the title. But Rochdale is a tough place to go and we think Dale’s poor form as of late has left them a bit over-priced here.

Northampton vs Charlton – 10pts stake – Northampton are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.28, a 5.4% gap in implied % terms.

Northampton have a 10pt Real TR advantage coming into this contest (478 to 468) – The remaining three featured games in this weekend’s League One preview are rather more marginal selections, beginning with a game where both teams positions in terms of overall unadjusted Team Rating over the last 20 games perfectly reflects each side’s actual league position. So what value is to be had here?

Northampton are relatively good at home as you can see and have a decent enough home record this season (7-2-8, 29-24, +5 GD), whilst Charlton haven’t won in seven games since beating Bolton back on the 28th January (fixture congestion would appear to play a part), leaving them looking over their shoulders somewhat.

Scunthorpe vs Fleetwood Town – 10pts stake – Fleetwood are currently 3.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.02, a 5.3% gap in implied % terms.

Fleetwood have a 31pt Real TR advantage for this match (543 to 512) – this is a huge clash between 2nd and 3rd in League One and will have ramifications in the race for automatic promotion. This is one where we favour the Cod Army with Scunthorpe currently over-performing in terms of league position (2nd) against their Team Rating (11th):

The above shows Scunthorpe’s Team Rating rank declining to that expected of a mid-table side. This shows that their performances have been reflecting their results in the last six weeks; they haven’t won in six and have lost at home to Shrewsbury and AFC Wimbledon during that spell, two teams who won’t be challenging for promotion.

Bradford vs Peterborough – 10pts stake – Peterborough are currently 5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.97, a 5.2% gap in implied % terms.

Peterborough have a 43pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (540 to 583) – Whilst both teams’ overall ratings reflect their league positions pretty well, the Posh are one of the oddest teams in the English leagues in terms of their respective performances home and away. Their Adjusted Home Team Rating is 497 (ranked 18th in League One) and their Adjusted Away Team Rating is 546 (ranked 3rd in League One).

The problem for them is that they’re going up against a Bradford team unbeaten at Valley Parade so far this campaign (6-12-0, 28-16, +12 GD). This is a tough one to call here, but we do think that the Posh are somewhat overpriced for a game that carries significant playoff implications in the division.

English League One – 25th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Port Vale vs Bradford – 50pts stake – Port Vale are currently 6.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.69, a 21.25% gap in implied % terms.

Port Vale are a 155pt Real TR underdog entering this game (387 to 542) – Generally teams playing at home have done better than expected in League One this season and despite struggling in the relegation zone in League One, Vale are no exception with a 7-5-4 record (24-21, +3 GD).

Bradford have been in relatively poor form recently, failing to win in their last four league fixtures. They’ve played well away from home, holding a 6-5-5 away record (16-17, -1 GD). 6.3 looks a little bit too long for us and this is definitely a value bet.

Oldham vs Millwall – 10pts stake – Oldham are currently 3.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.49, a 13.9% gap in implied % terms.

Oldham have a 78pt Real TR deficit for this game (459 to 537). Millwall have performed well in the FA Cup, knocking out Premier League sides to put them in the quarter finals. That said, we like the look of Oldham here due to the difference between the clubs respective home and away Adjusted TR ratings:

Millwall are ranked just 12th in Adjusted TR away from home and have conceded more goals away from the Den than any side in the top half except Bristol Rovers. Indeed, they have the biggest home/away Adjusted TR split in League One, a difference of 287pts (739 at home, 452 away). This is why we fancy Oldham’s chances to send the Lions back to earth after their cup exploits.

Chesterfield vs Oxford – 10pts stake – Chesterfield are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.79, a 12.1% gap in implied % terms.

Chesterfield have a 186pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (405 to 591). Both sides have remarkably similar respective home and away records this season in League One. Whilst Oxford do still have a relatively strong Adjusted TR overall, this has been declining in recent weeks:

Gillingham vs Southend – 10pts stake – Gillingham are currently 3.45 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.46, a 11.7% gap in implied % terms.

Gillingham have a 65pt Real TR deficit coming into this match (458 to 523) – Gillingham are tough to beat at the moment, but seem to be failing to convert draws into wins, having drawn six of their last seven. They have been difficult to conquer at Priestfield in this campaign, holding a 5-8-3 (21-17, +4 GD) home record.

Whilst Southend are in the playoff places in League One, they have been over-performing slightly, being 5th in League One, but with an overall Team Rating ranked just 9th in the division, which helps to explain why the Gills are one of our Betterbet tips this weekend.

English League One – 18th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 16th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Swindon vs Oldham – 10pts stake – Swindon are currently 2.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.1, a 13.2% gap in implied % terms.

Swindon have a 66pt Real TR advantage for this one (475 to 409) – Swindon have lost their last five since shocking Bolton away, whilst Oldham have won three of their last five in League One. However, we think Swindon are over-priced for this one, with Swindon having a slightly better Adjusted TR:

By our strength of schedule matrix, Swindon have also played the third toughest home schedule over the past 20 games in League One. Oldham have a weird record in terms of shots on target and shots on target conceded – they have the worst chance conversion rates in League One and the second best chance prevention rates (i.e. stopping shots and shots on target against them becoming goals conceded). Their three away wins this season have come against teams in the bottom third of League One (Chesterfield, Gillingham and Bury).

Shrewsbury vs AFC Wimbledon – 10pts stake – Shrewsbury are currently 2.78 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.14, a 10.7% gap in implied % terms.

Shrewsbury have a 47pt Real TR advantage coming into this clash (503 to 456) – Shrewsbury had been on a six gamne unbeaten run in League One before losing at Peterborough on Tuesday, whilst AFC Wimbledon’s form as of late has been rather mediocre. Looking at Adjusted TR, these teams are pretty much next to each other in the division:

Shrewsbury’s Adjusted TR has increased by 36pts over the last 6 games as a result of their good run, with that figure increasing from 443 to 479. AFC Wimbledon have a mediocre away record this season (4-6-5, 12-19, -7 GD) and this is reflected in their relatively poor Adjusted TR away from home:

Port Vale vs Bristol Rovers – 10pts stake – Port Vale are currently 3.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.64, a 10.1% gap in implied % terms.

Port Vale have a 119pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (374 to 493) – this is a fairly significant Real TR difference, but Vale have a pretty strong home record (7-4-4, 23-20, +3 GD) against Rovers’ relatively poor record away from the Memorial Ground (3-4-8, 18-31, -13 GD). If we look at each team’s respective home and away TR:

Even though Vale are ranked last in League One by this measure, Rovers away performance figure really isn’t much better at this stage.

Rochdale vs Charlton – 10pts stake – Rochdale are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 7.2% gap in implied % terms.

Rochdale have a 160pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (632 to 472) – Dale haven’t won in five, but have still got a very good Adjusted TR and now appear to be slightly under-performing their TR:

They also have a very high Home Adjusted TR of 719, which is the 3rd highest in League One. Charlton haven’t been bad away (4-8-4 record, 18-19, -1 GD) but Dale are under-rated at home and that explains why we’re think they’re value for this encounter.

English Championship/League One/League Two Fixtures – 14th February ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 12 home tips and 8 away tips for this round of midweek fixtures. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Monday 13th February.

Due to time constraints between the fixtures taking place on the weekend just concluded and this current round of midweek games, unfortunately we don’t have time to provide further analysis on tips for this round of games only. If you wish for any further analysis to be provided on any individual fixture, please let us know via FB, Twitter or by commenting on this post.

Normal service will be resumed for the forthcoming weekend.

English League One – 11th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 8th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Peterboro vs Sheffield United – 10pts stake – Peterboro are currently 3.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.54, a 13.1% gap in % terms.

Peterboro have a 112pt Real TR deficit entering this game (524 to 636). This is one of those games where the model tips the home side based on the concept of “home dominance” within a particular league during the current season, as both teams are roughly performing to where their team rating suggest they should be in the table:

Peterboro have a relatively average home record of (5-5-4, 24-19, +5 GD) whilst Sheffield United have occasionally struggled on the road during this campaign too.

Oxford vs MK Dons – 10pts stake – Oxford are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.11, a 9% gap in % terms.

Oxford have a 83pt Real TR advantage for this clash (624 to 541) – Both teams have been under-performing their team ratings this season, but Oxford in a particularly dramatic fashion:

Oxford are in the slightly strange position of having had better form at home this season but a slightly better Away Team Rating. That said, Oxford’s home Adjusted TR of 616 is still comfortably higher than MK Dons’ away adjusted TR of 556. Despite being in mid-table, the U’s are still in a good position to make the playoffs and hopefully this weekend they can help us out as well as themselves.

Bristol Rovers vs Bradford – 10pts stake – Bristol Rovers are currently 2.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.26, a 8.6% gap in % terms.

Rovers have a slight Real TR advantage of 8pts coming into this game (547 to 539). Although they are pretty close in terms of overall TR, Bristol Rovers are particularly strong at home:

While Bradford are unbeaten this campaign at Valley Parade, they fare worse away (6-4-4, 14-14, 0 GD) and Rovers are pretty good at home (9-3-3, 30-19, +11 GD).

AFC Wimbledon vs Charlton – 10pts stake – Wimbledon are currently 2.54 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.13, a 7.6% gap in % terms.

Wimbledon have a 72pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (523 to 451) – this is another game where our metrics state that the home team have been performing slightly better at home than their results would suggest:

Whilst Charlton’s overall Adjusted TR places them surprisingly low in League One:

English League One – 4th-5th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 2nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Coventry vs Millwall – 50pts stake – Coventry are currently 3.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.26, a 15.8% gap in % terms.

Coventry have a 21pt Real TR deficit entering this one – Cov may be bottom of League One and in crisis, but they have a decent enough home record for a side in their position (3-6-4, 13-12, +1 GD) and put in creditable performances in their last three home fixtures against teams in the top four (Fleetwood, Sheffield United & Bolton). Millwall have had a FA Cup run to contend with, beating Watford in the last round, and have a weaker away record (4-4-6, 20-28, -8 GD).

As you can see from the above, Cov have also under-performed their Adjusted TR this season – the Adjusted TR ranking 14th in League One on 476, despite them sitting bottom of the table.

Port Vale vs Peterborough – 10pts stake – Port Vale are currently 3.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.42, a 12.75% gap in % terms.

Vale have a 118pt Real TR deficit heading into this clash (403 vs 521) – Vale have the strongest home record of any team in the bottom half of the table (7-4-3, 23-17, +6 GD) and the model also takes into account overall “home dominance” in League One this season. Neither side is in particularly good form at the moment, with Vale sat 9 points behind Peterboro with a game in hand. A home win would go some way to calming any relegation fears for Vale:

Chesterfield vs Oldham – 10pts stake – Chesterfield are currently 2.68 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.23, a 7.6% gap in % terms.

Chesterfield have a 4 point Real TR deficit heading into this game (414 vs 418) – Both teams are in the League One relegation zone, but the disparities between their respective home and away records is what motivates us to tip the Spireites in this encounter. Chesterfield have a 6-3-5 (18-19, -1 GD) home record vs Oldham’s 2-5-7 (8-17, -9 GD) away record. As you can see, Oldham’s Adjusted Away TR of below 400 reflects this:

Milton Keynes Dons vs Bolton – 10pts stake – MK Dons are currently 2.56 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.19, a 6.5% gap in % terms.

MK Dons have a 19pt Real TR advantage for this one (528 to 509) – MK Dons may only sit 15th in League One, but this is one of the more interesting tips this whole weekend. MK Dons have under-performed their Team Rating this season, whilst Bolton have drastically over-performed:

Bolton’s under-performance isn’t a particularly new phenomenon either – after a great start, their Adjusted Team Rating settled at 520 after 10 or 11 games and has pretty much stayed there, whilst they’ve continued to stay in the hunt for automatic promotion in League One.

In fact, what holds MK Dons as not being forecast at even shorter odds by our model is their lack of home form. They have a 3-4-7 (19-26, -7 GD) home record in League One this season. That said, they are playing against a Bolton side who our strength of schedule matrix states have had the fourth easiest away schedule so far this campaign. Bolton have scored 13 and conceded 9 in 12 away games, an average of 1.83 total goals per game.