For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.
We have 2 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
As you can see this weekend, there are quite a lot of “strike-throughs”, games which we have manually excluded from our tips. This is largely due to this being the last weekend of the season and where teams with nothing to play for play teams with something left on the line, there is an obvious factor in terms of motivation that our model does not automatically account for. With this being the case, it is only right for us to make necessary adjustments.
PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.
Norwich vs QPR – 50pts stake – QPR are currently 5.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.77, a 18.8% gap in implied % terms.
QPR have a 28pt Real TR advantage for this game (523 to 495) – QPR had lost six on the bounce before beating Forest 2-0 at home last weekend to seal their safety whilst worsening their opponent’s plight at the bottom. QPR have regularly come up in our predictions this season and have played well recently against a decent schedule – they have averaged an individual game team rating of 486 over the past five games whilst playing Brentford, Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton:
Norwich’s performances have been less sure as of late – they thrashed Reading 7-1, but then beat Brighton 2-0. “But”? They achieved this win through two own goals and didn’t manage a shot on target – hardly a repeatable formula.
This has led to their average home Team Rating sliding a bit:
Huddersfield vs Cardiff – 50pts stake – Huddersfield are currently 2.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.62, a 17.4% gap in implied % terms.
Huddersfield have a 128pt Real TR advantage entering this game (591 to 463) – The Terriers’ form has suffered as of late and losing to a relegation threatened Birmingham side last weekend does count as a setback. But they arguably have an easier task this weekend at home to a Cardiff side with nothing to play for. The same can’t be said for Huddersfield, for whom a win could give them a second leg at home in the playoffs by finishing 3rd or 4th.
They also have the advantage of being a pretty good team at home; our Adjusted Home TR metric ranks them 3rd in the Championship and they’ve averaged 604 over their last five home games in the league:
Wigan vs Leeds – 50pts stake – Wigan are currently 3.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.1, a 17.4% gap in implied % terms.
Wigan have a 30pt advantage in Real TR for this last game of the season (490 to 460) – Both teams’ seasons effectively ended last weekend – for Wigan relegation was confirmed, for Leeds, another season in the Championship, their late season collapse ruling them out of a playoff spot. Wigan’s performances appear to have improved recently, although results haven’t matched this. On the other hand, Leeds‘ ratings have slumped a fair bit over the last few weeks, these declines in performances matched by a bad late season run that saw them drop out of the top six:
It’s been a frustrating season for the Latics – fans have slammed poor tactics and selection whilst managers have come and gone. They do though have a good chance of finishing the season at least in some style on Sunday.