Category Archives: English Championship

English Championship 7th May ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

As you can see this weekend, there are quite a lot of “strike-throughs”, games which we have manually excluded from our tips. This is largely due to this being the last weekend of the season and where teams with nothing to play for play teams with something left on the line, there is an obvious factor in terms of motivation that our model does not automatically account for. With this being the case, it is only right for us to make necessary adjustments.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Norwich vs QPR – 50pts stake – QPR are currently 5.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.77, a 18.8% gap in implied % terms.

QPR have a 28pt Real TR advantage for this game (523 to 495) – QPR had lost six on the bounce before beating Forest 2-0 at home last weekend to seal their safety whilst worsening their opponent’s plight at the bottom. QPR have regularly come up in our predictions this season and have played well recently against a decent schedule – they have averaged an individual game team rating of 486 over the past five games whilst playing Brentford, Sheffield Wednesday and Brighton:

Norwich’s performances have been less sure as of late – they thrashed Reading 7-1, but then beat Brighton 2-0. “But”? They achieved this win through two own goals and didn’t manage a shot on target – hardly a repeatable formula.

This has led to their average home Team Rating sliding a bit:

Huddersfield vs Cardiff – 50pts stake – Huddersfield are currently 2.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.62, a 17.4% gap in implied % terms.

Huddersfield have a 128pt Real TR advantage entering this game (591 to 463) – The Terriers’ form has suffered as of late and losing to a relegation threatened Birmingham side last weekend does count as a setback. But they arguably have an easier task this weekend at home to a Cardiff side with nothing to play for. The same can’t be said for Huddersfield, for whom a win could give them a second leg at home in the playoffs by finishing 3rd or 4th.

They also have the advantage of being a pretty good team at home; our Adjusted Home TR metric ranks them 3rd in the Championship and they’ve averaged 604 over their last five home games in the league:

Wigan vs Leeds – 50pts stake – Wigan are currently 3.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.1, a 17.4% gap in implied % terms.

Wigan have a 30pt advantage in Real TR for this last game of the season (490 to 460) – Both teams’ seasons effectively ended last weekend – for Wigan relegation was confirmed, for Leeds, another season in the Championship, their late season collapse ruling them out of a playoff spot. Wigan’s performances appear to have improved recently, although results haven’t matched this. On the other hand, Leeds‘ ratings have slumped a fair bit over the last few weeks, these declines in performances matched by a bad late season run that saw them drop out of the top six:

It’s been a frustrating season for the Latics – fans have slammed poor tactics and selection whilst managers have come and gone. They do though have a good chance of finishing the season at least in some style on Sunday.

English Championship 21st-24th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Bristol City vs Barnsley – 10pts stake – Barnsley are currently 5.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.98, a 14.3% gap in implied % terms.

Barnsley have a 3pt Real TR advantage entering this one (490 to 487) – The Tykes have been fairly strong away from home this season with a 9-2-10 (30-28, +2 GD) record and we’ll be backing them to win away from home this time after they disappointed us when we last tipped them (they led 2-0 at Wigan before a late Nick Powell hat-trick gave the Latics the win). Barnsley’s away form is also backed up by our Adjusted Away TR stat, which indicates some pretty good performances on average:

City have won their last three home games (against Huddersfield, Wolves and QPR) but have had less shots than their opponents in each of these, which is the sort of stat that suggests they’re “winning lucky” and a reversion to the mean of sorts could be on its way. 5.2 for Barnsley is understandable in one respect given they have less to play for than City but this still looks big.

Wolves vs Blackburn – 10pts stake – Wolves are currently 2.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.88, a 9.65% gap in implied % terms.

Wolves have a 68pt Real TR advantage heading into this one (516 to 448) – A run of six wins in their last eight has seen Paul Lambert’s boys steer clear of danger in the Championship and this run of form appears to have been “predicted” by our metrics to a certain degree. Look at how their Average Adjusted TR has not risen significantly during their good spell:

Basically, they were playing OK before their good run and not getting the results they deserved. They’ve continued to play at that same level and are now going through a good period. It all evens itself out in the long term…

Blackburn are an odd one – a team with a predictably poor away record (3-6-12, 21-34, -13 GD) so far this season, but who our model says have been performing better away than expected – looking at their recent away games:

With the exception of the Brighton game, they’ve averaged 517 in individual game TR over their past six games, a run that has seen them play Sheffield Wednesday, Reading, Norwich and Fulham. We don’t just look at away performance when trying to assess an away team’s chances though, we weight away and home performance – and overall Blackburn still aren’t better than you’d think – they rank 19th in Overall Adjusted TR over the past 20 games whilst sitting 22nd in the table.

Huddersfield vs Fulham – 10pts stake – Huddersfield are currently 2.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.01, a 9.6% gap in implied % terms.

Huddersfield have a 44pt Real TR lead going into this match (605 vs 561) – For much of this season, we’ve had Fulham pinned as an under-rated team whilst Huddersfield have been slightly over-rated according to our model. This time however, we’re going with the home side due to the sort of performances they’ve been putting in recently at the John Smith’s Stadium:

They will however face a big challenge against Fulham, who have one of the best away records in the country. They’ve put in some great performances on the road this season, particularly against Ipswich when they won 2-0 at Portman Road. Our model judged that as one of the best displays by any side in the Championship this season and it plays a big part that this game’s fallen out of the 20 game rolling average we use to formulate our away team ratings that Huddersfield are tipped this weekend.

While this may feel slightly unfair on Fulham, this is just part and parcel of the way we come up with our ratings, and the removal of a bad performance as it falls out of the average can help a team as much as it can hinder them.

Burton vs Leeds – 10pts stake – Burton are currently 3.15 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.47, a 8.7% gap in implied % terms.

Burton have a 20pt Real TR deficit going into this match (438 to 458) – Both teams’ results on Monday may end up proving to be pivotal in the course of their season; the Brewers scored a huge win when beating Birmingham 2-0 at St Andrews to take a giant step towards safety. In the process, they also simultaneously ended Gianfranco Zola’s reign.

Leeds on the other hand lost 1-0 at home to Wolves to fall out of the playoff spots for the first time in months. As you can see, we have them pegged as a bit of an over-performer this season – they’re 7th in the league yet 12th in overall Adjusted TR over the past 20 games:

Even worse, they average just 356 over their past seven away league games in terms of individual game Team Rating. This is BAD. They’re not playing well, stumbling at the final fence and playing away at a team for whom a win would cap a remarkable season in preserving their Championship status. Back the Brewers!

English Championship 13th-15th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 11th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Brentford vs Derby – 50pts stake – Brentford are currently 2.74 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.83, a 18.3% gap in implied % terms.

Brentford have a 82pt Real TR advantage for this one (518 to 436) – Brentford have looked in good form as of late (particularly in a win I personally witnessed at home to Bristol City) before losing at Cardiff last weekend. Whilst the Bees have left it way too late to mount a playoff challenge, Derby still have the slightest of chances having won three on the bounce. Despite having a OK away record of 7-4-9 (19-23, -4 GD), they continue to have a very poor Away TR:

Derby have managed 9 goals in their last 10 away games, with 96 shots in total compared to their opponents’ combined 171. They’re getting badly outplayed at the moment away from home and it suggests that they have been somewhat lucky in terms of their results.

Wigan vs Barnsley – 10pts stake – Barnsley are currently 3.65 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.58, a 11.3% gap in implied % terms.

Barnsley have a 52pt Real TR advantage for this one (492 to 440) – Seven points adrift of safety with five games to go, Wigan are now in “win every game” mode. But having sacked Gary Caldwell, things have failed to improve for the Latics and fans have been vocal in criticising replacement Graham Barrow’s tactics and team selection. Their home performances have been particularly poor, their home TR over the past 20 games ranks 23rd in the Championship:

Barnsley meanwhile, have a pretty good away record this season (9-2-9, 28-25, +3 GD) and have a home/away TR split of +31.44, ranking 22nd in the Championship. What does this mean? They’re not a team that play any poorer away from home in comparison to the rest of the division – their away performances almost match their home performances in how well they play and the level of dominance they exercise over games.

Bristol City vs QPR – 10pts stake – QPR are currently 4.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.97, a 10.4% gap in implied % terms.

QPR have a 5pt Real TR advantage entering this match (494 to 489) – Having seen Bristol City a couple of weeks ago, they looked lacking in inspiration, unable to provide Tammy Abraham with enough quality opportunities and susceptible to pace in transition. Whilst we have them as slight under-performers this season (their Team Rating suggests they should be higher in the league than they are), they’re also up against a better side in QPR who perform relatively well away from home in comparison to their peers:

QPR also have a home/away TR split of +10.44, which is 23rd in the Championship. What does this mean? See above for the Barnsley spiel – they essentially play as well away from home as they do at home, a rarity in any league. They’ve conceded 44 shots on target and had 40 themselves in their last 10 away games; a pretty good ratio.

English Championship 7th April-8th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 7th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Birmingham vs Derby – 50pts stake – Birmingham are currently 3.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.99, a 19.5% gap in implied % terms.

Birmingham have a 47pt Real TR advantage entering this match (483 to 436) – Birmingham aren’t as yet clear of safety in the Championship after a six match run without a win – but they have had a relatively tough schedule during this streak, with games against Leeds, Brighton and Newcastle. This tough fixture list has meant their Adjusted TR overall has not fallen too far during this period:

Derby’s performances this season haven’t been too great at all – we rank them 23rd in Adjusted Away TR over the last 20 games:

Derby started off the season OK away from home but have been poor on the road in 2017, winning once, drawing once and losing the other six.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Newcastle – 10pts stake – Wednesday are currently 3.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.4, a 10.4% gap in implied % terms.

Wednesday have a 13pt Real TR disadvantage entering this match (555 to 568) – We seem to tip against Newcastle a lot this season but that’s partly because we do think they have over-performed in the sense of having results better than what their rolling average Team Rating would suggest. Looking at Adjusted TR, there isn’t too much of a difference between the sides over the past 20 games:

Despite not being in the best form recently, Wednesday’s performances don’t seem to have necessarily been that bad, always an encouraging sign for a pick-up in results. Wednesday have averaged 536 in individual game Team Rating over the last six games and moved back into the top six with a win at Rotherham mid-week:

With Newcastle holding a comfortable advantage in the race to go up automatically, could this be the weekend for a slip-up by the Magpies?

English Championship 31st March-1st April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Preston vs Nottingham Forest – 10pts stake – Preston are currently 1.99 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.64, a 10.8% gap in implied % terms.

Preston have a 135pt Real TR advantage entering this match (520 to 385) – Preston have had a pretty average season, always seemingly just a stretch too far adrift of the top six to make it into playoff contention but still not entirely out of consideration with eight games to go in the Championship. Forest meanwhile, have far bigger concerns – an unpopular owner presiding over a side at risk of falling into the third tier. Their away record of 2-4-13 (19-37, -18 GD) is second worst only to Rotherham in the league, and they rank 24th and last in Adjusted Away TR over the last 20 games:

Forest’s two away wins both came back to back in late November against Barnsley and Ipswich – it’s difficult to see them picking up a third win on the road at Deepdale.

Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday – 10pts stake – Barnsley are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.6, a 9% gap in implied % terms.

Barnsley have a 28pt Real TR deficit for this one (486 to 514) – With 16 points from 14 league games in 2017, it’s initially difficult to avoid the conclusion that selling players in January’s transfer window negatively affected the Tykes’ chances this season, although judging by our individual game Team Ratings, they averaged 482 in 24 league games before the new year and 471 after it, which isn’t a significant difference.

Wednesday’s form has wobbled recently as they attempt to fend off Fulham for what looks like the final spot in the Championship playoffs. According to our metrics they appear to be as good and no better or worse than their league position suggests, although their Adjusted Away TR has dipped recently:

This dip in away performance leads us to believe that Barnsley are over-valued for this one, although we are coming up to a time of year when teams in mid-table do simply have less to play for then an opponent.

Brighton vs Blackburn – 10pts stake – Brighton are currently 1.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.41, a 8.6% gap in implied % terms.

Brighton have a 207pt Real TR advantage heading into this match (686 to 479) – Three defeats in their last five league games may have given pundits the impression that this is another Seagulls season heading for the skids. But defeats in 2017 for Brighton tend to have come against the best sides in the division (Newcastle, Huddersfield and Leeds), with the capitulation at Forest sticking out like a sore thumb.

Looking at their last 10 games with the exception of the matches against Newcastle and Leeds, they average 683.5 in individual game Team Rating across this stretch:

Does that look like a selective sample? Possibly. But it does get across the point that Brighton are flat track bullies, to an extent. And in a way, there’s nothing wrong with that, particularly when we’re backing them at home to a side struggling against relegation. Blackburn have staged somewhat of a recovery of late though – going six unbeaten as they try to avoid the drop, averaging 564.5 in individual game Team Rating during this period.

English Championship 17th-18th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 15th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

We have removed Rotherham from the list of tips this week – we try not to “curate” the results of the model too much, but the fact that they are so far off safety in the Championship means that I don’t think the usual calculations actually reflect their chances of victory in the manner they do with other teams.

Weekend tips

Nottingham Forest vs Derby – 10pts stake – Forest are currently 3.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.19, a 13.45% gap in implied % terms.

Forest have a 21pt Real TR advantage for this match (448 to 427) – This is a local derby with real importance, with Forest two points above the relegation zone and with the Rams having just sacked Steve McClaren for a second time. So why do we think Forest will triumph here? Let’s look at their respective home and away ratings:

As you can see Forest’s Home TR is ranked 15th in the Championship whilst Derby’s Away TR is ranked a lowly 22nd. Derby’s away form has really dipped though in the 2nd half of the season; they’ve lost six of their last seven away, although they have Newcastle, Brighton and Leeds during this stretch. In fact, Derby’s Home/Away TR ranking split is the 2nd most pronounced in the Championship, which given they’re away on Saturday, ain’t good for them.

Birmingham vs Newcastle – 10pts stake – Birmingham are currently 5.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.18, a 12.2% gap in implied % terms.

Birmingham have a 77pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (469 to 546) – I was a wee bit sceptical when the model tipped Fulham to win at Newcastle last week, but the Cottagers won comfortably in a very impressive performance at St James’s. The Magpies have had a hell of a schedule recently, beating Brighton and Huddersfield, drawing with Reading before losing to our model’s favourites Fulham, whose Team Rating suggested that they could pull off a performance like that.

So why do we rate Birmingham here? Newcastle may have what looks to be an amazing record, but their Adjusted Away TR of 524 over the past 20 games is nearer to the middle of the pack in the Championship than the top:

Newcastle may be the top scorers in the Championship, but having scored 12.8% on their shots (top mark in the league against an average of 10%) this is the sort of discrepancy between their mark and the average where we would expect to see a regression to the mean.

Cardiff vs Ipswich – 10pts stake – Cardiff are currently 1.94 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.61, a 10.7% gap in implied % terms.

Cardiff have a 134pt Real TR advantage for this one (541 to 407) – Cardiff have been in average form recently (not poor, average) and are cruising their way towards an anonymous mid-table finish. But our model does suggest that they’ve under-performed this season. What does that mean? They sit 13th in the table yet 8th on our Adjusted TR measure:

So Cardiff are under-performing but Ipswich appear to be over-performing. Ipswich’s inability to win, or lose (they’ve drawn their last six and seven out of their last eight) has seen them steadily slipping towards the relegation zone. However, looking more closely at their last eight, they’ve averaged a Team Rating of 413 (essentially a mark expected from a side battling relegation) during this stretch. The last four games have been particularly concerning as they’ve been performing poorly against poor teams.

English Championship 10th-11th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 8th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

We have removed Rotherham from the list of tips this week – we try not to “curate” the results of the model too much, but the fact that they are so far off safety in the Championship means that I don’t think the usual calculations actually reflect their chances of victory in the manner they do with other teams.

Weekend tips

Brighton vs Derby – 50pts stake – Brighton are currently 1.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.47, a 15.4% gap in implied % terms.

Brighton have a 173pt Real TR advantage heading into this match (622 to 449) – Brighton managed to end a slight wobble when beating Rotherham 2-0 away on Tuesday evening, whilst Derby’s season has rather petered out into nothing much at all following just one win in their last eight. Whilst the Rams’ away record this season isn’t too bad, their performances have been. They have had a better individual game Team Rating than their opponents in just two of the last ten away games:

Brighton meanwhile continue to have the top Adjusted Home TR in the league and before their late loss at home to Newcastle had achieved higher individual game Team Ratings than their opponents in their previous eight home games:

Newcastle vs Fulham – 10pts stake – Fulham are currently 4.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.69, a 14% gap in implied % terms.

Fulham have a 48pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (630 to 582). Fulham scored a 95th minute equaliser to snatch a point at home to Leeds on Tuesday evening, which wasn’t much good for us after we’d tipped them. Fulham have achieved a higher individual game Team Rating than their opponents in 16 of the last 20 games, but their results, whilst good, have not quite translated into the scintillating run of form we’d expect from such a side:

Newcastle meanwhile continue to look strong and navigated a very tough 3 game away run against Brighton, Huddersfield and Reading with aplomb in collecting seven points. But the model sees them as approximately even right now, giving Fulham the edge when it comes to the value bet.

Barnsley vs Ipswich – 10pts stake – Barnsley are currently 2.44 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.86, a 12.8% gap in implied % terms.

Barnsley have a 74pt Real TR advantage for this fixture (479 to 405) – Ipswich still sit comfortably clear of the relegation zone in the Championship with a 9 point gap, but their performances have been worthy of a team in the bottom three.

Ipswich have averaged a Team Rating of 390 over their last ten games, a rating more in line with a team at threat of relegation than a team in lower mid table. Barnsley have had their own struggles this season to contend with, particularly at Oakwell – they are one of just four teams in the Championship to pick up more points on the road than at home this season. But they have a relatively easy home schedule looking forward and will be looking to turn that around.

Preston vs Reading – 10pts stake – Preston are currently 2.38 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.83, a 12.5% gap in implied % terms.

Preston have a 80pt Real TR advantage for this one (506 to 426) – As previously mentioned Reading have been the great over-achievers this season in the Championship, performing relatively poorly yet picking up results despite being outplayed. They’ve just started to “regress to the mean” recently, picking up 9 points from their last 7, although against a relatively difficult schedule. They have a net shot differential of -93 and a net shots on target differential of -30. They shouldn’t be where they are, but they continue to defy gravity, but for how much longer?

Preston meanwhile have a 9-4-5 record at Deepdale this season (29-21, +8 GD) and need a win to keep alive any hopes of making the playoffs. Their performances have been reflective of their position this season, which makes them a value bet to pick up three points on Saturday.

English Championship – 7th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 0 away tip for the midweek games. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Monday 6th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

We have removed Rotherham from the list of tips this week – we try not to “curate” the results of the model too much, but the fact that they are so far off safety in the Championship means that I don’t think the usual calculations actually reflect their chances of victory in the manner it does with other teams.

Weekend tips

Fulham vs Leeds – 10pts stake – Fulham are currently 1.85 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.52, a 11.85% gap in implied % terms.

Fulham have a 152 pt Real TR advantage heading into this one (645 to 493) – This is a big game in the Championship with playoff implications for both teams. Both teams are in good form, with each having won 3-1 at the weekend; Leeds at Birmingham, Fulham hosting Preston.

Despite only being 7th in the table, Fulham have the best adjusted Team Rating in the Championship, with a rating of 638:

Their performances have been steadily improving during the season – their shots for/shots against ratio over the course of the season (0.58) is behind only Newcastle and Huddersfield. Their run of good form has come on solid foundations. Our model also sees Leeds as performing relatively poorly away from home, despite a respectable 8-2-7 record (25-23, +2 GD):

Leeds have had a weaker individual game Team Rating in four of their last five away games according to our model, picking up points when being outplayed (particularly in their win over Birmingham, when their opponents had 27 shots but could only score once). This isn’t the sort of situation that tends to be sustainable in the long term, so we fancy Fulham for this one.

Birmingham vs Wigan – 10pts stake – Birmingham are currently 2.38 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.86, a 11.8% gap in implied % terms.

Birmingham have a 68pt Real TR lead coming into this fixture (475 to 407) – As mentioned above, Birmingham created chances but failed to convert them in their 1-3 loss to Leeds on Saturday, leading to a defeat that might just cause some concern amongst Bluenoses. Fortunately for them, they’re playing against a team in dire straits themselves in Wigan Athletic, whose 1-0 defeat at fellow relegation strugglers Blackburn at the weekend left them 4 points off safety in the Championship.

Wigan have been relatively miserly this season at the back, conceding just 41 goals. Their problems have been at the other end, scoring just 30, the lowest mark in the Championship. Having not started too badly, their Team Rating has dipped down to near the 400 mark (the red line at the bottom on the below graph):

Wigan have already sacked Gary Caldwell this season and fans have also been complaining about successor Warren Joyce over his selection and tactics. They need to start winning, but their performances don’t appear to herald an immediate improvement.

English Championship 3rd-4th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 1st March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in the Championship. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

We have removed Rotherham from the list of tips this week – we try not to “curate” the results of the model too much, but the fact that they are so far off safety in the Championship means that I don’t think the usual calculations actually reflect their chances of victory in the manner it does with other teams.

Weekend tips

Huddersfield vs Newcastle – 50pts stake – Huddersfield are currently 2.98 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.97, a 17.2% gap in implied % terms.

Huddersfield have a 45pt Real TR advantage for this one (584 to 539) – Newcastle got a huge come from behind win at Brighton on Tuesday night, but now face a second huge test this week at Huddersfield. Hudders have their own midweek game to recover from when they face Man City in a FA Cup replay tonight (I for one was very impressed by their performance in the initial game). Both teams have great respective home and away records this season and looking at their overall Team Ratings they are very close too:

Newcastle’s Away TR is relatively low at 516 (ranked 3rd in the Championship) which suggests that they’re getting results on the road without necessarily dominating in games, which counts against them here.

Blackburn vs Wigan – 10pts stake – Blackburn are currently 2.44 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.94, a 10.5% gap in implied % terms.

Blackburn have a 55pt Real TR advantage for this fixture (459 to 404) – Wigan have been bottom of our Team Rating chart for the last 5 weeks now in the Championship (below even Rotherham) and travel to their fellow Lancastrian strugglers for a relegation six pointer. Whilst Blackburn are 22nd in the table, they are a fair bit higher in our Adjusted TR rankings:

Neither team is in great form and despite not having a particularly terrible away record (4-4-9, 18-22, -4 GD), Wigan have the second lowest Adjusted Away TR in the Championship (382.1 – 23rd) and are consistently bad by our metrics.

Birmingham vs Leeds – 10pts stake – Birmingham are currently 3.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.48, a 9.95% gap in implied % terms.

Birmingham have a 20pt Real TR deficit for this match (472 to 492) – this is an interesting one as it appears that both teams have been over-performing their Team Rating this season. Birmingham rank 19th on TR and sit 14th in the table, Leeds rank 7th on TR and sit 4th in the Championship. City have declined since the sacking of Gary Rowett and his replacement by Gianfranco Zola but did beat Wolves on Saturday to ease any fears of getting sucked into a relegation battle.

Above are Leeds’ last five individual game Team Ratings – they’ve struggled recently in terms of performances, averaging 447 during that stretch, but did achieve an impressive win at home to Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend. That said, we’re tipping Birmingham for this due to Leeds’ relatively weak away performances, they rank just 14th in Adjusted TR on an away basis in the Championship with an average rating of 435.

Derby vs Barnsley – 10pts stake – Barnsley are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.76, a 9% gap in implied % terms.

Barnsley have a 59pt Real TR deficit entering this encounter (488 to 547) – Barnsley are curiously big here given their relative away strength this season (8-2-6 away record, 24-19, +5 GD) whilst Derby haven’t won in six. The Rams’ problem versus Bristol City and Cardiff was that they couldn’t stop conceding; now they can’t score. That said, Derby are pretty strong at home by our metrics, and we wonder whether this could be behind Barnsley’s relatively long price to beat a team away from home who are lower than them in the table.

That said, Barnsley are also no mugs away from home (they rank 6th in Adjusted TR away, with a score of 494). Both teams’ strengths in their respective home and away records balance each other out in my opinion, leading to this one being a good value bet.

English Championship – 24th-26th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

PLEASE BE AWARE that for this weekend as a test, we have changed the criterion for a 10pt bet from a difference of 5% between the bookies’ odds average and the model odds to a difference of 8.5%. This is to filter out a lot of the unprofitable away tips that the model was giving us in League Two. This will probably stay until the end of the season when further development work on the algorithm will get going again and may be expanded to other leagues dependent on testing.

Weekend tips

Aston Villa vs Derby – 50pts stake – Aston Villa are currently 2.46 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.60, a 21.8% gap in implied % terms.

Aston Villa have a 124pt Real TR advantage entering this game (580 to 456) – Villa have been in dire form as of late, having taken two points from their last nine league games, putting Steve Bruce under pressure. Looking at their stats a bit more, they haven’t played quite as badly as you might think. They’ve generally created as many chances as the other team – they’ve had 41 shots on target in their last 9 league games, but have only scored 5 goals, which is a terrible conversion rate and the sort of stat that should regress to the mean in time. Looking at Adjusted TR:

Derby have themselves been inconsistent this season and having kept most games tight earlier in the campaign, they suddenly can’t stop scoring…or conceding. This is an odd one to predict and would normally be the sort of game I’d be horrified about recommending a 50pt bet for, but all bad runs of form come to an end sometime. £12m striker Scott Hogan’s absence after an ankle injury will be a blow for Villa though.

Leeds vs Sheffield Wednesday – 10pts stake – Leeds are currently 2.66 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.05, a 11.1% gap in implied % terms.

Leeds have a 34pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (549 to 515) – Wednesday’s run of good form came to a surprise end when losing midweek to Brentford at home. Both teams appear to be slightly over-performing their Adjusted TR at the moment, with both of them ranked on this measure outside the top six:

Leeds’ form has been choppier recently than their opponents, but they are strong at home, holding a 11-2-4 record (23-12, +11 GD). Our schedule strength matrix pegs Wednesday as having played one of the easier away schedules during the past 20 games in the Championship too.

Brighton vs Reading – 10pts stake – Brighton are currently 1.67 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.41, a 11% gap in implied % terms.

Brighton have a 180pt Real TR advantage for this one (628 to 448) – Brighton have navigated a potentially tricky schedule in recent weeks well as they continue their push to the Premier League and hold a four point advantage over Huddersfield in third, who can’t stop winning right now. Reading’s hopes of automatic promotion are far slimmer, but they sit in the playoff places despite a Team Rating that is far below their actual league position. Despite being 4th in the Championship, Reading sit 17th in Adjusted TR:

Why is this? Reading have had 405 shots on goal and 487 shots on goal conceded this season. They’ve also had 136 shots on target and 162 shots on target conceded this season. On both measures, they’ve given up more than they’ve had, which gives them a negative shots ratio. It’s very rare for a team to be able to maintain a negative shots ratio long term and continue to prosper as it suggests they’re converting chances or stopping chances from being converted at an unsustainable long term rate. This is why we keep backing against Reading, and away at a fellow promotion rival, we think we might be right.