Category Archives: English Premier League

English Premier League – 5th-8th May ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

West Ham vs Tottenham – 50pts stake – West Ham are currently 8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.2, a 18.7% gap in % terms.

West Ham have a 101pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (559 to 660) – Spurs continue to look hugely impressive and won their ninth consecutive Premier League fixture in beating Arsenal 2-0 in the final North London derby at White Hart Lane. Given Spurs’ imperious form, it may be difficult to imagine backing the Hammers in this, but Spurs’ performances have been noticeably weaker away from home this season.

The difference between Spurs 20 game average home TR and their 20 game average away TR is +236.7, the 2nd widest margin in the Premier League. What does this tell us? Spurs’ performances away from home drop off more than most teams – and this often means their opponents are overpriced at home. West Ham’s form has been patchy all season, but they have gone on a four game unbeaten run (against mostly mediocre opposition) and whilst they don’t have a title to chase, a good end to the season would help calm any fears of the sack for Slaven Bilic.

Burnley vs West Brom – 10pts stake – Burnley are currently 2.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.75, a 12.8% gap in % terms.

Burnley have a 80pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (439 to 359) – Both these sides’ style of play tends to lead to our model slightly under-rating them – both seem to regularly grind out results without exerting a great deal of pressure on their opponents’ goal. However Burnley’s performances have improved somewhat of late, even resulting in a first away win of the season at Crystal Palace, which we managed to predict!. West Brom seem to be travelling in the opposite direction, with four defeats on the bounce since beating Arsenal and drawing at Old Trafford. Their team rating over the last few games is shown in the dark green line on the below chart:

It’s hard to escape the conclusion that the Baggies have metaphorically checked in their luggage and are savouring the sweet taste of a pint in the airport Wetherspoons. A win for Burnley secures safety and at Turf Moor we think they’ll get it.

Arsenal vs Manchester United – 10pts stake – Arsenal are currently 2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.67, a 9.9% gap in % terms.

Arsenal have a 88pt Real TR deficit coming into this game (576 to 664) – Arsene Wenger’s hopes of staying on for a 22nd season in charge took a blow when his charges were comfortably second best in the North London Derby, but lost in the noise concerning the manager is the extent to which his side’s home and away form has differed so greatly this season. Arsenal have a 11-3-2 home record (32-15, +17 GD) this season. Their issues have not been at the Emirates, their problems have come away from home with seven league defeats on the road.

The scale of difference according to our metrics between Arsenal’s home and away performances mean we think they’re overpriced here – but it’s also conceivable to make an argument for United being a big price here too. United have a better away record than home (34 points to 31), haven’t had the same issue with draws and have a very high adjusted away TR (677, 1st in the Premier League). They won their previous four away games before parking the bus to draw at City. Should be an intriguing encounter nevertheless.

Leicester vs Watford – 10pts stake – Watford are currently 6.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.5, a 6.8% gap in % terms.

Watford have a 62pt Real TR deficit for this one (426 to 488) – The key thing to mention here is that although Leicester are justifiable favourites, Watford look like an overpriced outsider here. It took a Emre Can wonder goal to stun the Hornets on Monday night and although they’ve lost their last four away games, their average individual game Team Rating over the last six away games isn’t too bad at 423:

Leicester reached the magic 40 point mark by beating West Brom at the Hawthorns on Saturday, but they were comfortably outplayed and lucky Kaspar Schmeichel and some woeful Baggies finishing got them out of jail. We think they should win this – but 1.62 is a poor price at home and Watford are the value bet here.

English Premier League – 22nd-23rd April ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

West Ham vs Everton – 10pts stake – West Ham are currently 3.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.53, a 9.2% gap in % terms.

West Ham have a 51pt Real TR deficit entering this game (516 to 567) – West Ham‘s form continues to be choppy, but we have noted an improvement in performances at home recently. They deserved to beat West Brom and drew. They deserved results against Leicester and Chelsea at home and lost both. And they then comfortably dominated against Swansea at home but only triumphed 1-0. West Ham have had more shots than their opponents in each of their last four home league games and yet only won once, a stat that says they’ve been unlucky and could quite easily have picked up more points. This all helps them to a fairly decent average home TR:

Everton meanwhile, have been great at home, but have lacked a bit of form on the road this season (4-5-7, 19-24, -5 GD) away from Goodison Park. They’ve scored lower individual game Team Ratings in each of their last five away games, although that run has included Spurs, Liverpool and United, so it’s slightly difficult to quite gauge where they’re at right now:

It’s maybe not the most obvious pick, but this is the only recommended bet the model’s come up with for this coming weekend’s abbreviated Premier League programme (there are only six Premier League games this weekend due to the FA Cup). What do you think?

English Premier League – 15th-16th April ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 11th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Manchester United vs Chelsea – 100pts stake – Manchester United are currently 2.84 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.64, a 25.6% gap in % terms.

Man United have a 40pt Real TR advantage entering this game (634 to 594) – It’s pretty rare we have a 100pt stake game, let alone one where the backed team host the current leaders, so it’s probably right to explain what’s going on here.

Chelsea lead by seven points and are still justifiably heavy favourites to take the title, but their performances have trailed off somewhat in comparison to the autumn/early winter period where they looked absolutely dominant. To illustrate that in some more detail, take a look at this chart showing Team Rating by 20 game rolling average over the last few months or so. United’s line is in red while Chelsea’s is in green:

Chelsea’s rating has fallen from their previous dizzy heights, partly due to them averaging just 515 in individual game Team Rating over the past 5 games – they simply haven’t been dominant and have been winning games they could have been expected to draw given their performance in these. United aren’t perfect by any means, but they do exercise a good deal of control in games whilst only converting a woeful 24.9% of their shots on target, the 2nd worst mark in the league on this stat behind Southampton.

Usually, we’d expect that stat to revert to the mean over time given United’s quality – but there is a nagging suspicion that Jose’s tactics and philosophy are leading to United producing poor-quality chances for Ibrahimovic et al rather than them simply being poor finishers or the goalkeepers they face having blinders. Or just Pogba hitting the woodwork constantly. That said for now, we’ll keep this one in and be brave.

Middlesborough vs Arsenal – 50pts stake – Boro are currently 6.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.71, a 21.7% gap in % terms.

Boro have a 74pt Real TR deficit entering this game (445 to 519) – Believe me, Boro aren’t very good to watch, or very good in general. But 6.6 at home against a side in turmoil right now who haven’t won on the road since January and have taken seven points from their last eight while fans revolt against the manager is silly. Let’s look at Arsenal’s Adjusted Away TR:

You didn’t really need to see that table to tell you Arsenal’s away performances have been poor recently, but it does help to show the level of their decline. Boro haven’t shown a big upturn in four games under Steve Agnew, but having averaged between 359 and 379 in three games against United, Swansea and Hull, they achieved an individual game TR of 645 against Burnley at home – but failed to win despite being the better side. They have shown a slight upturn in offensive production under Agnew, but need to start firing soon to avoid the drop.

Watford vs Swansea – 50pts stake – Watford are currently 2.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.67, a 19.75% gap in % terms.

Watford have a 92pt Real TR advantage for this one (468 to 376) – Swansea seemed to be turning the corner under Paul Clement, but progress has slowed if not reversed and we recognised this when we tipped West Ham to beat them 1-0 last weekend. Three managers this season and issues between the board and fans haven’t helped matters. Looking at their average TR, this seems to show performances just haven’t improved as of late:

Watford were spanked at Tottenham, but Spurs’ dominance at home right now is frightening and there’s no great shame in that. They have quietly improved since Christmas, at which point it looked like given their lack of motivation and defensive issues they would get sucked into a relegation fight. Looking at their last 6 games, they have averaged 533 in individual game TR during this stretch:

Southampton vs Manchester City – 50pts stake – Southampton are currently 4.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.54, a 18.6% gap in % terms.

Southampton have a 56pt Real TR deficit heading into this encounter (546 to 602) – The Saints have been slight under-performers for much of this season, but now clear of their Europa League adventure and League Cup run, they’ve started to show improvement in results to match their underlying performance level. They sit 7th in overall Adjusted TR over the last 20 games:

Meanwhile, City returned to winning ways with a 3-1 win at home to Hull following a tough three game span against Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea – City’s big issues seem to be at the back; they’ve conceded 12 shots on target in their previous four games but have conceded six goals (50% rate during this stretch compared with a league average rate across the season of 32.8%). Southampton meanwhile have the lowest shots on target conversion rate in the Premier League, but this has increased to 29% across their last eleven games (from an average of 24.2% across the whole of the season).

English Premier League 8th-10th April ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Thursday 6th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

West Ham vs Swansea – 50pts stake – West Ham are currently 2.16 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.6, a 16.1% gap in % terms.

West Ham have a 114pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (499 to 385) – West Ham had looked like they’d turned a corner over Christmas and into January, but a run of five straight league defeats (and no win in seven) has made this into a relegation six pointer, particularly with the upturn in form of clubs such as Crystal Palace and Hull. Looking at our Adjusted TR though, it’s pretty much the same as five games ago for the Hammers:

This measure is adjusted for strength of schedule and with West Ham having played Arsenal, Chelsea and a resurgent Leicester City during this five game losing streak it does mitigate any drop off in performance that has been shown otherwise.

Swansea looked like they might be turning the corner under Paul Clement, but they failed to beat Hull, Bournemouth and Boro and then led for 77 minutes against Spurs before losing 3-1 at home. Not beating relegation rivals is a recipe for doom and the Spurs defeat has to have knocked their confidence somewhat.

Spurs vs Watford – 10pts stake – Spurs are currently 1.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.1, a 13.8% gap in % terms.

Spurs have a 324pt Real TR advantage going into this one (749 to 425) – Spurs dominance at home this season has been huge and if anything this has increased recently – they now have the best average TR of any side in the Premier League over the course of the season, over the last 20 games and the best average TR at home to boot.

Spurs have a 13-2-0 home record this season (35-8, +27 GD) and this is backed up by their ridiculously high average home TR over the past 20 games:

Watford are a strange sort of inconsistent side – I’ve seen them play dreadfully, and quite well, but never really very well against a side not having an absolute mare that day (read, Arsenal away). I don’t think they’re good enough to stop Spurs at White Hart Lane.

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal – 10pts stake – Crystal Palace are currently 4.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.18, a 11% gap in % terms.


Palace have a 116pt Real TR deficit entering this one (416 to 532) – Palace’s four game winning run was ended at Southampton after a second half comeback from the Saints nullified Christian Benteke’s opener. Sam Allardyce said he would need time to achieve results with the team he inherited from Alan Pardew, but his appointment appears to have paid dividends, for now at least.

Arsenal have very much had their own issues to contend with this season and we see no evidence that they’ve been unlucky in terms of how their results have fit with their performances this campaign. Away from home, they’ve been particularly weak, with an Adjusted Away TR of 505.5 ranked just 7th in the Premier League on this measure:

Palace’s problems this season have been very much linked to their weak performances at Selhurst Park; a fact that has seemed paradoxical to some given the strength of the support from their home crowd. We rank them last in Adjusted Home TR this season and the only side in the division to have a negative Home/Away TR split (better away than at home). We’re not ignoring that by this tip – we just think they’re still overpriced given Arsenal’s struggles.

Middlesboro vs Burnley – 10pts stake – Middlesboro are currently 2.48 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.96, a 10.7% gap in % terms.

Boro have a 41pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (434 to 393) – Boro’s sacking of Aitor Karanka was necessary but Steve Agnew’s appointment must start paying dividends soon if the Teesiders want to escape relegation. From what I’ve seen of them since (particularly against Man United) they showed a bit more vigour and thrust in their play, but they need more of that to overcome a seven point gap to Hull City and possible safety.

Quite frankly, this is one of those tips where we have little evidence to support the home side’s claims to a win but plenty against the away side picking up anything. Burnley’s dreadful away record is no secret this season; 0-3-12, 9-30, -21 GD. They have often been competitive away from home (Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool) but have lacked adventure and cojones away from their Turf Moor fortress under Sean Dyche to kick on and pick up wins.

For us, the key stat here is not necessarily their respective home and away Adjusted TR rankings, but the difference between those two numbers. That’s why we like Boro to keep their survival chances alive this weekend:

English Premier League 1st-2nd April ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 0 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

As you can see above, there are no tips highlighted for the Premier League this weekend. There was one that initially came up, with Stoke just breaching the threshold required to be tipped for a 10pt stake at Leicester. However, as this was already marginal, and with Leicester’s performances and results greatly improving since the dismissal of Claudio Ranieri as manager, we have manually excluded this one this weekend.

Don’t worry, the absence of any tips for a particular league in any given weekend is a rare occurrence – we’d rather give no tips than bad tips!

English Premier League – 18th-19th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 14th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Spurs vs Southampton – 50pts stake – Spurs are currently 1.74 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.34, a 17.3% gap in % terms.

Spurs have a 201pt Real TR advantage for this one (743 to 542) – Spurs came through their mini slump after going out of Europe by beating Stoke and Everton at home and they face another top half of the table side at White Hart Lane this Sunday. Why do we like them again? They are dominant at home in a way almost unique in Europe at the moment. They have a 20 game Adjusted Home TR of 858, 60 points ahead of Chelsea’s rating. It’s also the best of any side in Europe, better than Bayern or Barca (that doesn’t mean Spurs are better than them at home, just means they have been more dominant within their league at home).

West Brom vs Arsenal – 50pts stake – West Brom are currently 5.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.95, a 15.3% gap in % terms.

West Brom have a 93pt Real TR deficit for this one (446 to 539) – Arsenal have lost three of their last four in the league with defeats to Watford, Chelsea and Liverpool. Disenchantment with Arsene Wenger’s reign has reached fever pitch after exiting the Champions League when stuffed 5-1 in both legs by Bayern Munich. Arsenal can’t compete with the cream of Europe and their domestic performances have struggled too. Their overall Adjusted TR has fallen in the last few weeks as a result:

Pulis’s team have been well beaten by Everton and Palace in the last fortnight and their ratings have dipped in a corresponding manner too – but they are pretty strong at home. The gap between their Home TR and their Away TR is the 2nd largest amongst all Premier League teams and their home record this season of 8-2-4 (24-17, +7 GD) backs this up.

West Ham vs Leicester – 50pts stake – West Ham are currently 2.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.7, a 15.25% gap in % terms.

West Ham have a 85pt Real TR advantage for this match (505 to 420) – Since controversially sacking Claudio Ranieri, caretaker Craig Shakespeare has presided over a revival for the Foxes, beating Liverpool, Hull and Sevilla mid-week, the latter victory taking them into the last eight of the Champions League. But, and this is critical, they still haven’t won away from home in the Premier League this season, a record only matched by Burnley.

West Ham haven’t won in four in the league, but they have averaged a Team Rating of 485 in this stretch, which given 500 is the long term average isn’t too bad and they managed more shots than their opponents in the first three of those games. This one’s a tough one to call – our model looks at longer term performance and doesn’t factor in the arrival of a new manager. We don’t like to “curate” our model when necessary though, so we’ll go with the algorithm. Your choice!

Middlesboro vs Manchester United – 10pts stake – Boro are currently 7.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.97, a 11.3% gap in % terms.

Boro have a 155pt Real TR deficit coming into this game (431 to 586) – This is one I would have thought about changing if this had been a higher stake. Watching Boro this season is probably a cruel and unusual punishment under the Geneva Convention – boring, terrible and with a manager who seems to despise his own team’s fans.

United though, have impressed in fits and starts this season and having spent much of this season in 6th place, are in 5th on our Adjusted TR measure and their rating has barely changed in weeks, as can be seen below:

A side with the riches of Ibrahimovic, Martial, Rashford et al should score far more goals than they do. This season, they’ve scored 39 goals in the league, easily the lowest mark of any side in the top six. United have had the 2nd most shots on target, yet have only converted 8.7% of their shots (against a league average of 11.1%) and have only converted 23.8% of their shots on target (against a league average of 32.9%!). United would be title contenders, if they could convert their chances.

English Premier League – 8th-12th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 7th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Hull vs Swansea – 10pts stake – Hull are currently 2.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.87, a 13.4% gap in % terms.

Hull have a 51pt Real TR advantage entering this game (436 to 385) – Hull have shown sporadic signs of improvement under Marco Silva but having dropped points to Burnley and Leicester, this feels like a must win. And to win, they’ll have to overcome a Swansea side that has also shown an upturn in performances following the appointment of Paul Clement.

As we can see from the above, both of these teams’ performances are improving and they are both playing better football than they were six weeks ago. That said, Swansea are still struggling away from home by our metrics, even after their recent tough games at Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool are accounted for:

They’ve won at Liverpool (whose struggles against the bottom six this season have been well documented), a Palace team new to having Sam Allardyce in charge and Burnley (maybe the most impressive of the lot!). Hull fought hard against Leicester but were beaten by the better side – can they turn things round at home?

Liverpool vs Burnley – 10pts stake – Liverpool are currently 1.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.16, a 6.2% gap in % terms.

Liverpool have a 284pt Real TR advantage for this game (655 to 371) – As has been much discussed, Liverpool’s record against bottom six sides is the one thing stopping them from being title contenders. They’ve taken just five points from their last seven games against bottom half teams. Whether this is tactical or psychological is up to debate.

Liverpool and Burnley though, both share a defensive statistic that feeds into our ratings that informs our prediction – Pool have let in 16% of their total shots faced (against an average of 11.3%) and let in 39.1% of their total shots on target faced (against an average of 33%). Burnley’s respective numbers are 8% and 25.3%. What does this mean? Whilst certain goalkeepers are better than others, these statistics tend to regress to the mean in the long term, which should see Liverpool concede less and Burnley concede more.

Finally, Burnley’s terrible away record this season shouldn’t be forgotten. 0-2-11 (8-28, -20 GD) away from home and backed up by our Adjusted Away TR stat:

English Premier League – 4th-6th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Spurs vs Everton – 50pts stake – Spurs are currently 1.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.27, a 19.8% gap in % terms.

Spurs have a 234pt Real TR advantage for this clash (738 to 504) – Spurs bounced back from their mini-slump by thrashing Stoke at the weekend and still have the 2nd best Adjusted TR in the EPL (688) and the 2nd best Season Long TR in the EPL (659, Chelsea are on 662).

Everton may be in good form, but their Adjusted TR has slipped recently, widening the gap between them and the rest of the Big Six:

While they improved against Sunderland and thrashed Bournemouth 6-3, they weren’t particularly dominant in the latter in terms of the number and quality of the chances created. We reckon there’s a pretty significant difference between these teams and Spurs should be heavily favoured on Sunday.

Liverpool vs Arsenal – 10pts stake – Liverpool are currently 2.12 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.75, a 10.1% gap in % terms.

Liverpool have a 79pt Real TR advantage for this game (651 to 572) – Arsenal have tended to beat up on the smaller teams away from home this season (delivering thrashings to West Ham, Sunderland, Hull and Swansea) but have struggled against bigger teams, particularly recently. Since beating West Ham away on the 3rd December, they lost at Everton and Man City, had to come from 3-0 down to draw at Bournemouth and lost at Chelsea.

Liverpool have had some poor results lately, but their individual game Team Ratings have not been too bad. In their seven league games this year, they’ve averaged 557, which is pretty respectable given they only took six points in total from those matches:

A third league defeat in four, together with the Bayern Munich fiasco, would heap further pressure back on Arsene Wenger.

Stoke vs Middlesborough – 10pts stake – Stoke are currently 2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.7, a 8.8% gap in % terms.

Stoke have a 90pt Real TR advantage for this game (480 to 390) – Boro haven’t won in nine and none of their four league victories have come against a team higher than 14th in the table (Bournemouth being the highest). Boro are 17th in Adjusted TR on an overall basis:

Stoke meanwhile sit 10th in the league, have the 10th best Adjusted TR in the Premier League and continue to sit in a comfortable position as they attempt to finish in 9th for the fourth consecutive season, which would surely be a record.

Leicester vs Hull – 10pts stake – Hull are currently 4.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.62, a 6.8% gap in % terms.

Hull have a 5pt Real TR deficit for this one (416 to 421) – Leicester responded to Claudio Ranieri’s sacking by winning 3-1 against Liverpool on Monday night, showing glimmers of the form that won them a Premier League crown last spring. But it’s very early to say that they have definitely turned the corner on the strength of one performance. Their performances since the turn of the year have been very poor, and they have also struggled at home this season:

Hull’s away form is awful (1-2-10, 6-28, -22 GD) but their Adjusted Away TR has risen to 403.8 (ranked 13th in the Premier League) recently, having played well against tough opponents including Chelsea, United, Liverpool and Arsenal (back to back!). They had the better of the play against Burnley at home, but failed to test Tom Heaton enough, and were punished having taken the lead (and cost me £1,150 on an accumulator).

English Premier League 25th-26th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Chelsea vs Swansea – 50pts stake – Chelsea are currently 1.28 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.04, a 17.7% gap in % terms.

Chelsea have a 359pt Real TR advantage for this game (749 to 390). This is a pretty huge gap and is linked to Chelsea’s performances having been brilliant at home, where they have an Adjusted TR at home of 831 (the same rating as Spurs):

Chelsea have also managed to keep up the pace despite a tricky run of games recently, averaging 622 across their last five league games despite that stretch including Arsenal and Liverpool away. Whilst Swansea have improved recently, our algorithm believes they have played at a level recently in tune with where they are in the Premier League table, rather than necessarily being any better than that. This means there’s a wide Real TR differential and our model recommends a 50pt bet.

Spurs vs Stoke – 10pts stake – Spurs are currently 1.41 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.21, a 11.4% gap in % terms.

Spurs have a 263pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (735 to 472) – Tottenham’s 9 game unbeaten league run ended with defeat at Liverpool, but despite their Team Rating being dented, they still are ranked number 1 in the Premier League across the last 20 games:

Spurs also have an Adjusted Home TR of 831 (ranked 1st in the PL) and the biggest home/away split in the Premier League – this means that the gap between their Adjusted Home TR and their Adjusted Away TR is the biggest in the division. Stoke are an average side by our metrics away from home and also average by their record (3-3-6 away from home, 14-21, -7 GD) and have struggled against the top sides away from the Britannia so far this season.

Hull vs Burnley – 10pts stake – Hull are currently 2.22 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.92, a 7% gap in % terms.

Hull have a 46pt Real TR advantage (415 to 369) – Hull have improved under Marco Silva, somehow taking four points from a nightmare run that included Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal away and Liverpool at home. They achieved an average Team Rating of 355 in that stretch, which may be poor over the course of a season but is pretty good for a weak side whilst playing four of the big six consecutively. They’ve now got a significantly easier task in the shape of Burnley at the KC. Whilst Burnley have impressed at Turf Moor, it hasn’t been the same on the road, where they’ve taken one point all season. Here’s their Adjusted TR away from home in 16/17:

Burnley continue to be the weakest performing side and the side with the weakest results in the Premier League away from home, often showing a complete lack of adventure in away games. Hull should have the advantage here.

Crystal Palace vs Middlesboro – 10pts stake – Palace are currently 2.18 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.91, a 6.5% gap in % terms.

Crystal Palace have a 49pt Real TR advantage for this one (430 to 381) – Palace have been in atrocious form since Sam Allardyce took over, taking four points from seven games. But they haven’t been playing quite as badly as you’d think from a team that lost 0-4 at home to Sunderland. They’ve had 56 shots in the past five league games but have only scored two goals and had 21 shots with 9 on target against Sunderland, yet conceded 4 from facing 7 shots on target themselves.

It’s become something of a truism that Palace have attacked less since Allardyce took over, but it seems that it’s more a case of their conversion rate slipping. Meanwhile Middlesboro, under Aitor Karanka, do deserve their boring reputation. They’ve had the least shots in the league (225), the least shots on target (59) and the least goals (19). They’re better defensively, but looking at overall Adjusted TR it does appear that Palace should be favourites entering this.

English Premier League – 11th-13th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the evening of Monday 6th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Bournemouth vs Man City – 10pts stake – Bournemouth are currently 7.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.07, a 11.4% gap in % terms.

Bournemouth have a 152pt Real TR deficit heading into this game (468 to 620) – one of the reasons why the model picks this one out is that it thinks they’re partly overpriced based on “home dominance” within the Premier League this season, which has been relatively pronounced compared with previous seasons.

In terms of Adjusted TR, Bournemouth rank 12th with a rating of 449, the sort of rating you’d expect a lower mid table team to be on, with Man City in 3rd.

Bournemouth have struggled in the last few weeks – a return of 1 point from playing Palace, Watford and Hull has put them back on the edge of the relegation picture.

West Ham vs West Brom – 10pts stake – West Ham are currently 2.22 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.89, a 7.9% gap in % terms.

West Ham have a 57pt advantage in Real TR entering this one (486 to 429) – West Ham are favoured in this one due to their relative home strength versus the Baggies’ relative weakness away from home, as a quick look at their respective home and away ratings suggest:

Indeed, during the last 10 games West Brom have had an adjusted Away TR of 295, the worst rating in the league – this is truly terrible. This is an adjusted measure, even accounting for the fact that they played Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea away from home during this period.

West Brom really struggle to create chances, particularly away from home. They’ve had 78 shots on target, the 3rd lowest in the Premier League, and just 34 over their last 12 games. West Ham, meanwhile, have certainly struggled badly against the big six this season but have fared far better against weaker opposition – they’ve taken 29 points from 16 games against non big six opposition this season against 2 points in 8 against big six teams.

Middlesboro vs Everton – 10pts stake – Middlesboro are currently 4.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.14, a 7.5% gap in % terms.

Boro have a 98pt Real TR deficit for this one (413 to 511) – Boro aren’t favourites for this by any stretch, but the model does think they are over-priced due to their relative strength at home vs Everton’s away record:

Boro may be perceived as boring, but they do have some good attributes which the model likes – they score 34% of their shots on target (a relatively good rate) and they only concede goals on 27% of their shots on target, which places them in the top 5 in the Premier League on this metric.

Although Everton have been in good form recently, over their last 7 games they have averaged a Team Rating of 613, which is high, but not as high as I’d expect given the amount of goals they’ve scored. And although they thrillingly beat Bournemouth 6-3 at the weekend with Lukaku scoring four, their Team Rating for this game was comparatively low at 551 – this is due to them allowing more shots to Bournemouth than they had themselves – Everton had 15 to Bournemouth’s 18, but the Toffees’ finishing was better. They scored 60% of their shots on target!

Swansea vs Leicester – 10pts stake – Swansea are currently 2.48 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.14, a 6.4% gap in % terms.

Swansea have a 11pt Real TR advantage coming into this one (422 to 411) – and the model makes Swansea a marginal back here. This is a huge game for both teams in the relegation dogfight and the Swans have certainly been showing more heart as of late. Both teams’ Adjusted overall TR’s have fallen slightly in recent weeks, although not by a significant amount:

Swansea have won three of their last five and were very unlucky not to take a point at Man City at the weekend. In their last five games since Paul Clement took over, they’ve averaged a Team Rating of 432, which given they’ve played Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City during that stretch, is pretty admirable.

Leicester however have looked terrible under Ranieri as of late and failed to improve their team much during the transfer window. By contrast, they’ve only achieved a higher individual Team Rating than their opponents in 5 of 24 games this season and have averaged a Team Rating of 357 over their last five games. At the moment, this looks like a clear home win and the Foxes need to start showing some fight.