For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.
We have 3 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
West Ham vs Tottenham – 50pts stake – West Ham are currently 8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.2, a 18.7% gap in % terms.
West Ham have a 101pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (559 to 660) – Spurs continue to look hugely impressive and won their ninth consecutive Premier League fixture in beating Arsenal 2-0 in the final North London derby at White Hart Lane. Given Spurs’ imperious form, it may be difficult to imagine backing the Hammers in this, but Spurs’ performances have been noticeably weaker away from home this season.
The difference between Spurs 20 game average home TR and their 20 game average away TR is +236.7, the 2nd widest margin in the Premier League. What does this tell us? Spurs’ performances away from home drop off more than most teams – and this often means their opponents are overpriced at home. West Ham’s form has been patchy all season, but they have gone on a four game unbeaten run (against mostly mediocre opposition) and whilst they don’t have a title to chase, a good end to the season would help calm any fears of the sack for Slaven Bilic.
Burnley vs West Brom – 10pts stake – Burnley are currently 2.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.75, a 12.8% gap in % terms.
Burnley have a 80pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (439 to 359) – Both these sides’ style of play tends to lead to our model slightly under-rating them – both seem to regularly grind out results without exerting a great deal of pressure on their opponents’ goal. However Burnley’s performances have improved somewhat of late, even resulting in a first away win of the season at Crystal Palace, which we managed to predict!. West Brom seem to be travelling in the opposite direction, with four defeats on the bounce since beating Arsenal and drawing at Old Trafford. Their team rating over the last few games is shown in the dark green line on the below chart:
It’s hard to escape the conclusion that the Baggies have metaphorically checked in their luggage and are savouring the sweet taste of a pint in the airport Wetherspoons. A win for Burnley secures safety and at Turf Moor we think they’ll get it.
Arsenal vs Manchester United – 10pts stake – Arsenal are currently 2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.67, a 9.9% gap in % terms.
Arsenal have a 88pt Real TR deficit coming into this game (576 to 664) – Arsene Wenger’s hopes of staying on for a 22nd season in charge took a blow when his charges were comfortably second best in the North London Derby, but lost in the noise concerning the manager is the extent to which his side’s home and away form has differed so greatly this season. Arsenal have a 11-3-2 home record (32-15, +17 GD) this season. Their issues have not been at the Emirates, their problems have come away from home with seven league defeats on the road.
The scale of difference according to our metrics between Arsenal’s home and away performances mean we think they’re overpriced here – but it’s also conceivable to make an argument for United being a big price here too. United have a better away record than home (34 points to 31), haven’t had the same issue with draws and have a very high adjusted away TR (677, 1st in the Premier League). They won their previous four away games before parking the bus to draw at City. Should be an intriguing encounter nevertheless.
Leicester vs Watford – 10pts stake – Watford are currently 6.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.5, a 6.8% gap in % terms.
Watford have a 62pt Real TR deficit for this one (426 to 488) – The key thing to mention here is that although Leicester are justifiable favourites, Watford look like an overpriced outsider here. It took a Emre Can wonder goal to stun the Hornets on Monday night and although they’ve lost their last four away games, their average individual game Team Rating over the last six away games isn’t too bad at 423:
Leicester reached the magic 40 point mark by beating West Brom at the Hawthorns on Saturday, but they were comfortably outplayed and lucky Kaspar Schmeichel and some woeful Baggies finishing got them out of jail. We think they should win this – but 1.62 is a poor price at home and Watford are the value bet here.