Category Archives: Scottish Premiership

Scottish Premiership 18th-19th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 14th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

NOTE – Dundee were originally tipped by the model at 17 to beat Celtic at home as a 10pt tip but we have manually excluded them as we’re not sure the model accurately reflects Celtic’s dominance over the rest of the SPL in the context of the Team Rating algorithm. I.e. the algorithm probably slightly underrates extremely dominant sides.

Weekend tips

Kilmarnock vs Partick – 10pts stake – Kilmarnock are currently 3.45 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.63, a 9.1% gap in implied % terms.

Killie are a 16pt Real TR underdog for this match (508 to 524) – We backed Killie last weekend when they won 2-1 at Ross County and the model thinks they’re a value bet again this time. Let’s look at their respective home and away Adjusted Team Ratings:

What you eagle eyed spotters have probably seen here is the Jags’ away record is ranked 2nd in the SPL. Whilst their ranking’s really good, looking more closely at their team rating of 531 suggests they are indeed good, but not dominant compared to the sides around them. It also hasn’t translated into particularly dominant away form this season so far, with a record of 4-4-5 (13-15, -2 GD) away from Firhill.

My general view when it comes to the SPL is that there’s not much differentiation between teams in the middle of the pack and that price formation by bookies and on exchanges over-values very small differences in performance/form, leading to a good deal of value bets when very similar sides play each other. Like this game. Get on Killie!

Scottish Premiership 11th-12th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 0 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 7th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

NOTE – Rangers were originally tipped by the model at 8.8 to beat Celtic away as a 10pt tip but we have manually excluded them as we’re not sure the model accurately reflects Celtic’s dominance over the rest of the SPL in the context of the Team Rating algorithm. I.e. the algorithm probably slightly underrates extremely dominant sides.

Weekend tips

Ross County vs Kilmarnock – 10pts stake – Kilmarnock are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.59, a 14.8% gap in implied % terms.

Kilmarnock have a 30pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (472 to 442) – Kilmarnock won at St Johnstone at odds of 6.9 when we last tipped them and they look a good bet to win away again here. They rank above Ross County in terms of schedule adjusted Team Rating:

Killie have also had an average Team Rating of 525 over their last seven games, which is a pretty decent mark. Ross County’s by comparison over the same time frame is just 413. Despite losing at home to Motherwell at the weekend, Kilmarnock were the better team and should be fancied here.

St Johnstone vs Dundee – 10pts stake – Dundee are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.23, a 7.2% gap in implied % terms.

Dundee have a 32pt Real TR deficit for this one (409 to 441) – Dundee’s recent good run was ended at home to Partick Thistle last week, but they stand a chance here due to St Johnstone’s poor record at home. Looking at their Adjusted TR at home, they’ve been over-performing in the table given the quality of the underlying performances:

This is also reflected in the fact (in common with a surprising number of clubs in the SPL) that they’ve picked up more points away from home this season than at their own place. Dundee also played pretty well during their recent run, averaging a Team Rating of 552 in a five game stretch against Inverness CT, Kilmarnock, Rangers, Motherwell and Partick.

Partick vs Inverness CT – 10pts stake – Inverness CT are currently 4.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.54, a 5% gap in implied % terms.

Inverness CT have a 54pt Real TR deficit for this match (454 to 508) – Another away team with odds around 100/30 this weekend, an example of how the model tends to cluster its picks around a certain pattern sometimes. There is a slightly bigger differential between the two sides’ ratings here, which means the model odds are a bit longer for ICT compared to the other two tips above.

Partick are ranked 5th in Overall TR over the last 20 games, which is pretty good. But they’ve actually performed better away from home than at their own ground:

Inverness had also been showing signs of turning a corner before losing 0-4 at home to Celtic last week; before then they had beaten Rangers and drawn with Dundee and Hearts.

Scottish Premiership – 24th-25th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock – 10pts stake – Kilmarnock are currently 6.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3,55, a 13.65% gap in implied % terms.

Kilmarnock have a 38pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (425 to 463) – St Johnstone are in good form entering this one and have beaten Kilmarnock’s rivals in the bottom half of the SPL over the last few weeks. Why do we like the look of Killie in this one? Given the comparative tightness and lack of separation in terms of quality in the middle of the SPL, 6.9 does on the face of it look too large and this is backed up by the teams’ respective scores on the Adjusted TR metric:

St Johnstone are also a rarity in the fact that their away record has been better than their home record so far this season. They have a 4-3-5 home record at McDiarmid Park (18-19, -1 GD).

Inverness CT vs Rangers – 10pts stake – Inverness CT are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.32, a 6.3% gap in implied % terms.

Inverness CT have a 79pt Real TR deficit coming into this match (477 to 556) – this is a relatively small Real TR deficit for a team facing Rangers, even at home. Rangers have been in disarray recently with the departure of manager Mark Warburton and his staff and they lost 2-1 at Dundee in midweek, leaving them six points behind Aberdeen in second place in the SPL.

Delving in deeper, there’s also not a huge difference between their relative home and away Adjusted TR scores:

And while Inverness CT sit bottom of the SPL, they sit 6th in Adjusted TR overall over the past 20 games with a mark of 471, which suggests that they have been under-performing their Team Rating this season. Why might that be? Caley Thistle appear to be giving up a surprising amount of goals given the number of shots that they face – indeed, 15.2% of their shots faced this season have been conceded as goals, with 37.7% of their shots on target faced this season entering their net, both highs in the SPL.

Scottish Premiership – 18th-19th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 16th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen – 10pts stake – Kilmarnock are currently 7.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5.03, a 6% gap in implied % terms.

Kilmarnock have a 158pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture – this one is definitely a value bet rather than a probable win, but the model does think that Killie are over-priced here:

Kilmarnock have also gone four unbeaten and whilst Aberdeen’s away record has been good, they have lost five away from Pittodrie in the SPL this season. That said, they do now look favourites to take 2nd in the league behind Celtic with Rangers in disarray and beat Motherwell 7-2 at home last night.

Ross County vs St Johnstone – 10pts stake – Ross County are currently 3.05 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.64, a 5.1% gap in implied % terms.

Ross County have a 7pt Real TR deficit entering this game – this one narrowly breaches the 5% threshold for a tip so this is a marginal one. Whilst St Johnstone have a positive away record (5-4-3, 13-11, +2 GD), their Adjusted TR away from home isn’t too strong, our schedule strength matrix reckons they’ve played the second easiest away schedule over the past 20 SPL games:

One of the reasons St Johnstone are deemed to be a slightly weaker side than their results suggest is due to their performance in defense. They’ve only conceded goals on 10.4% of their shots faced (2nd best in the SPL) and only conceded goals on 23.6% of their shots on target faced (2nd best in the SPL), marks that may be due for regression.

Scottish Premiership – 4th-5th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 1 home tip and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 2nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Inverness CT vs Dundee – 10pts stake – Inverness are currently 2.18 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.89, a 7% gap in % terms.

Inverness CT have a 108pt Real TR advantage for this game (491 to 383) – Inverness are bottom of the SPL by three points, but our model sees the hosts as having significantly under-performed their true strength this season, as our overall Adjusted TR rankings below demonstrate:

As you can see, that Adjusted TR difference of 91 points between Inverness and Dundee is a significant gap and Inverness’s home record of 2-5-4 (16-18, -2 GD) isn’t really too bad for a team bottom of the table. Dundee’s away record of 2-1-8 (7-18, -11 GD) is also comparatively poor.

Aberdeen vs Partick – 10pts stake – Partick are currently 6.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.5, a 6.1% gap in % terms.

Partick have a 87pt Real TR deficit for this game (515 to 602). This is an interesting one as Aberdeen’s home Adjusted TR metric shows that they have perhaps been over-performing at home with the Jags’ away Adjusted TR metric showing they’ve been under-performing on the road:

Although Partick haven’t won in their last three, they had an average Team Rating of 490 in this stretch, which is relatively high given they only picked up two points during this run. Aberdeen meanwhile a rarity in that they have an Adjusted TR at home of 585 whilst their Adjusted TR away is 584, an almost identical mark.

Scottish Premiership – Fixtures 31st January-1st Feb’ 17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 1 away tips for these midweek fixtures. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 31st January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Hearts vs Rangers – 10pts stake – Hearts are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.25, a 11.15% gap in % terms.

Hearts have a 42pt Real TR advantage coming into this one (590 vs 548) – this is driven by each of their respective home and away Adjusted TR’s:

Hearts’ recent form has been poor in losing three of their last four league games, but an Adjusted Home TR of 680 is still very strong (even in the Scottish Premiership) and they have a 6-3-2 home record (23-8, +15 GD). Rangers meanwhile have a 5-3-3 away record (14-15, -1 GD) and their Adjusted Away TR of 509 ranks only 4th in the SPL.

Partick vs St. Johnstone – 10pts stake – Partick are currently 2.88 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.32, a 8.5% gap in % terms.

The Jags have a 31pt Real TR advantage entering this game (494 to 463) and while their Adjusted Home TR of 451 only ranks 10th in the league, St Johnstone’s Adjusted Away TR itself has been on the decline in recent weeks as can be seen in the below snapshot:

St Johnstone have won only one of their previous six away league fixtures, a win at Kilmarnock just before Christmas.

Celtic vs Aberdeen – 10pts stake – Aberdeen are currently 9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5.22, a 8.3% gap in % terms.

Aberdeen have a 105pt Real TR deficit heading into this fixture (626 to 731) but their performances have been improving recently according to our metrics and they now rank as the 2nd best team in the SPL according to Overall TR over the past 20 league games:

Although Celtic have dominated the SPL this season even by Scottish standards (21-1-0, 59-14, +45 GD), we believe Aberdeen at 9’s are still too big entering this fixture and that a team of their quality in comparison to Celtic should be shorter for this game. Aberdeen’s away record has also been good this season, taking 19 points on the road compared to 21 at home.

Scottish Premiership – Fixtures 27th-29th January ’17.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you have any questions on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the evening of Tuesday 24th January. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

These are our first SPL tips since we launched due to the winter break in Scotland.

St Johnstone vs Hamilton – 10pts stake – Hamilton are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.92, a 8% gap in % terms.

Hamilton have a 63pt Real TR differential entering this one (422 to 485). Hamilton have a 0-6-4 away record in the league this season (10-16, -6 GD) but St Johnstone do have a weaker home record than their away record this term with their Adjusted Home TR being ranked 8th in the league.

Motherwell vs Rangers – 10pts stake – Motherwell are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.94, a 7.9% gap in % terms.

The Well have a 123 point Real TR deficit going into this one (412 vs 535), but Rangers’ away record this season hasn’t been particularly strong (4-3-3, 12-15, -3 GD). This is displayed in Rangers’ comparatively weak adjusted Away TR, which ranks them just 5th in the league by this measure.

Kilmarnock vs Ross County – 10pts stake – Kilmarnock are currently 3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.46, a 7.3% gap in % terms.

With Kilmarnock having a 27pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture, this is one we feel a little bit more confident about. Ross County have a relatively weak away record (2-4-4, 9-16, -7 GD) and this is conveyed in their away rating so far this season, which ranks just 11th in the SPL.

Kilmarnock have also had the hardest home SPL schedule so far according to our schedule matrix, which causes us to increase Killie’s home adjusted TR by 6%.

Celtic vs Hearts – 10pts stake – Hearts are currently 11 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 6.36, a 6.6% gap in % terms.

This is most definitely a long shot, with Celtic holding a 146pt Real TR advantage going into this game (702 vs 556). Celtic have cruised through the SPL season so far, currently holding a 19 point lead at the top, rendering the rest of the season a procession (not much different than the last few seasons in Scotland).

But Hearts do have the 2nd best Overall TR this season, and their overall Adjusted TR’s are significantly nearer to each other: