For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.
We have 1 home tip and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 14th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
NOTE – Dundee were originally tipped by the model at 17 to beat Celtic at home as a 10pt tip but we have manually excluded them as we’re not sure the model accurately reflects Celtic’s dominance over the rest of the SPL in the context of the Team Rating algorithm. I.e. the algorithm probably slightly underrates extremely dominant sides.
Kilmarnock vs Partick – 10pts stake – Kilmarnock are currently 3.45 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.63, a 9.1% gap in implied % terms.
Killie are a 16pt Real TR underdog for this match (508 to 524) – We backed Killie last weekend when they won 2-1 at Ross County and the model thinks they’re a value bet again this time. Let’s look at their respective home and away Adjusted Team Ratings:
What you eagle eyed spotters have probably seen here is the Jags’ away record is ranked 2nd in the SPL. Whilst their ranking’s really good, looking more closely at their team rating of 531 suggests they are indeed good, but not dominant compared to the sides around them. It also hasn’t translated into particularly dominant away form this season so far, with a record of 4-4-5 (13-15, -2 GD) away from Firhill.
My general view when it comes to the SPL is that there’s not much differentiation between teams in the middle of the pack and that price formation by bookies and on exchanges over-values very small differences in performance/form, leading to a good deal of value bets when very similar sides play each other. Like this game. Get on Killie!