Category Archives: German Bundesliga

German Bundesliga – 5th May-7th May ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Hertha Berlin vs RB Leipzig – 100pts stake – Hertha are currently 3.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 25.6% gap in implied % terms.

Hertha have a 54pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (544 to 490) – Hertha have generally done pretty well for us when being tipped this season and have a impressive home record of 12-1-2 (25-9, +16 GD) at the Olympiastadion. Leipzig have stumbled a little bit recently, drawing at Schalke and at home to Ingolstadt. Their Adjusted Away TR is also surprisingly poor:

They have a lower individual game Team Rating than their opponents in five of their previous seven away games, as can be seen below. They were comfortably outclassed at Bayern and Dortmund, and Hertha are equally as strong at home:

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg – 50pts stake – Eintracht Frankfurt are currently 2.71 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.78, a 19.4% gap in implied % terms.

Frankfurt have a 88pt Real TR advantage coming into this one (552 to 464) – Frankfurt have been on a fairly dire run as of late and unsurprisingly lost at high-flying Hoffenheim last weekend. However, they have achieved higher individual game Team Ratings than their opponents in their last four home Bundesliga fixtures:

In these games they achieved 19 shots on target to their opponents’ 9 and 58 shots to their opponents’ 30, yet won one and drew three of these games. They’re playing well at home, just not converting their chances. We’d expect teams that dominant at home for their conversion rate to regress upwards, so we can say with a degree of confidence that they should put away more of their chances soon.

Wolfsburg meanwhile, were thumped 6-0 at home to Bayern at the weekend as their opponents sealed the title. Wolfsburg’s last title was relatively recently back in 2009, but this season could be a disastrous one as they sit in the middle of a relegation dogfight. They have more to play for than their opponents this weekend, but do they have the quality to beat a Frankfurt team whose performances have been far better at home than on the road this season?

Freiburg vs Schalke – 50pts stake – Freiburg are currently 3.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 15.2% gap in implied % terms.

Freiburg have a 30pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (442 to 472) – Freiburg look big here against a Schalke team whose inconsistency has been maddening this season. Freiburg have had a relatively decent home record this season (9-1-5, 20-23, -3 GD) and have beaten Leverkusen & Mainz in their previous two home fixtures. Despite having a very low Adjusted Home TR which ranks 17th in the Bundesliga, it’s still better than Schalke’s away mark:

Schalke have a 3-4-8 away record in the Bundesliga this season, with wins over Leverkusen, Mainz and Wolfsburg. They’ve failed to beat anyone in the top half of the table away from home this season.

Hamburg vs Mainz – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 2.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.88, a 11.5% gap in implied % terms.

Hamburg have a 60pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (542 to 482) – This is a huge game in the relegation picture in the Bundesliga, with both sides on 33pts, potentially in line to play in a relegation playoff tie against a side from the second division. According to our metrics, Hamburg have played well recently and their team ratings have been climbing week by week – but crucially, their results haven’t been so good. Four defeats in their last five have seen them fall back in the pack:

They’ve averaged 418 in their last five games in individual game Team Rating – but they have had to play Dortmund, Hoffenheim and a fast improving Werder Bremen side during this stretch. They’ve also got a decent 7-3-5 home record this season (19-24, -5 GD) for a team fighting against relegation.

Mainz, on the other hand, have a pretty strong Adjusted TR themselves and have shown some pluck in beating Hertha and drawing at Bayern recently. These two teams’ Adjusted TR’s compared to their league positions suggest both teams are under-performers – their performances are more typical of teams higher up the table:

German Bundesliga – 28th April-30th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 27th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich – 10pts stake – Wolfsburg are currently 8.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.11, a 12.7% gap in implied % terms.

Wolfsburg have a 199pt Real TR deficit entering this game (489 to 688) – Wolfsburg haven’t been in great form recently and have won only once in their last five, when beating Ingolstadt 3-0 a couple of weeks ago. But they have shown that they’re improving at home recently, with their home TR jumping up considerably over the past few weeks:

Bayern meanwhile are rather spluttering their way over the line for yet another Bundesliga title, with back to back draws against Leverkusen and Mainz, along with a DFB Pokal defeat last night at home to familiar foes Borussia Dortmund. They could potentially win the league this weekend, but this failure to wrap things up quickly at the latter end of a season has been a common thread in recent years for them and could well continue this weekend.

Darmstadt vs Freiburg – 10pts stake – Darmstadt are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.67, a 8.1% gap in implied % terms.

Darmstadt have a 83pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (364 to 447) – Darmstadt have twice cheated death in recent weeks, hanging on for yet another week each time by beating Schalke and then winning at Hamburg. They have another chance this weekend to extend the streak against a Freiburg team that have been serious over-performers this season. Freiburg sit 6th in the Bundesliga, but just 16th on Adjusted TR:

Freiburg also have an individual game TR average over their last 7 games of just 431 and their league position belies the fact that they are evidently not a team firing on all cylinders now:

RB Leipzig vs Ingolstadt – 10pts stake – Ingolstadt are currently 7.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5, a 6.5% gap in implied % terms.

Ingolstadt have a 105pt Real TR deficit for this match (479 to 584) – Ingolstadt’s chances of avoiding the drop have lengthened considerably after back to back defeats, but we believe they may still be over-priced for this one. Their 4-1-10 away record (14-26, -12 GD) is not too bad for a team in the position they’re in and judging by our metrics, their away performances suggest they’re unlucky not to have been getting better results too:

They’ve averaged just over 440 in their last five away games as well, which certainly isn’t too bad for a team fighting relegation:

Mainz vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – 10pts stake – Mainz are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.95, a 5.7% gap in implied % terms.

Mainz have a 39pt Real TR advantage entering this encounter (508 to 469) – Five straight defeats had put Mainz in serious relegation danger but a win over Hertha followed up by a shock draw at Bayern have kept Die Nullf├╝nfer outside the drop zone. They go into this against a Gladbach side who have shipped ten goals in their last three games and whose form has been inconsistent all season. As you can see from the below looking at each side’s Adjusted TR on a 20 game rolling average, both sides appear very evenly matched, but Gladbach’s relatively weak away record (4-3-8, 16-29, -13 GD) has to be taken into account here:

German Bundesliga – 21st April-23rd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Hertha Berlin vs Wolfsburg – 50pts stake – Hertha are currently 2.57 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.75, a 18.1% gap in implied % terms.

Hertha have a 80pt Real TR advantage going into this game (554 to 474) – Much like last season, Hertha have gone into a late season tailspin that appears to have cost them the chance of Champions League football. They took two points from their last seven last season to end the season outside the top four and this time they’ve taken just three points from their last five and find themselves ten points back of Dortmund in 4th.

That said, looking at their last five home games, they’ve played well in all of them with the exception of the match against Hoffenheim:

Their Adjusted Home TR of 647 is ranked 5th in the Bundesliga over the last 20 games and their Adjusted Home/Away TR split of +221 is ranked 1st in the league. This means the gap between the strength of their home and away performances is bigger than any other side in the division.

Schalke vs RB Leipzig – 50pts stake – Schalke are currently 2.95 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.94, a 17.75% gap in implied % terms.

Schalke have a 36pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (529 to 493) – Leipzig have had a wonderful debut season in the top flight and have guaranteed at least a playoff match in the Champions League and a top four spot. They should still finish 2nd with five games to play. But we have noticed recently a decline in their away form – they’ve won the last four, but three of these were at home:

And as a result of a stunning away performance at Darmstadt (they limited their opponents to no shots on target, no goals) earlier in the campaign now falling out of our rolling average, their Adjusted Away TR is now just 407, ranked 13th in the Bundesliga.

Schalke have had a very mediocre season and this continued when they lost 2-1 at Darmstadt last week (in a game where we tipped the hosts). However they did manage 26 shots in that game and were the better side. They’re an unpredictable team but given the above we think they can surprise Leipzig in this one.

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Dortmund – 10pts stake – Moenchengladbach are currently 3.48 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.44, a 12.2% gap in implied % terms.

Gladbach have a 55pt Real TR deficit entering this one (507 to 562) – This is one tip based upon the relative strengths of each side’s home and away performances so far this season. Gladbach have a 7-3-4 (21-12, +9 GD) record at home, Dortmund 4-5-6 (27-25, +2 GD) away. This means that their respective home and away Adjusted TR’s look like this:

Dortmund have won all six of their home league games since Christmas, but have only won one of six away since the break. This is a derby and it is possible that their Champions League exit to Monaco may re-invigorate them in the league – alternatively played 72 hours after their CL tie and being three days before a game at Bayern in the DFB Pokal (German Cup) may affect them negatively too.

Freiburg vs Leverkusen – 10pts stake – Freiburg are currently 3.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.55, a 11.4% gap in implied % terms.

Freiburg have a 68pt Real TR deficit entering this match (434 to 502) – This is an interesting one – Freiburg look very much like an over-performer this season, placed 6th in the league but with a -15 goal difference and with a net margin of -11 shots on target. They also have a very poor Adjusted average TR, 435, ranked 17th in the Bundesliga. So why are we tipping them?

It’s all to do with “home dominance”. Home advantage has played a big part in Bundesliga results this season, relatively speaking slightly more than we’d expect in an “average” season. Hence we think that Freiburg are slightly over-priced for this one and that the relative differences between their home and away team ratings count for more than they might in another league.

German Bundesliga – 15th April-16th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 11th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Augsburg vs Koln – 10pts stake – Augsburg are currently 2.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.18, a 11.4% gap in implied % terms.

Augsburg have a 2pt Real TR advantage for this match (452 to 450) – Their Real TR’s are practically identical going into this and given relative home advantage in the Bundesliga this season, we think they’re over-priced here. Whilst Augsburg have lost their last three and are having to fight off a resurgent Ingolstadt in the battle to avoid relegation, Koln have not been performing too well either:

This makes them over-performers this season and if we look at just their last 10 games, things get even worse; they have an average TR of just 420 over this period, ranking 17th in the Bundesliga. Koln’s away form of 3-5-6 (19-21, -2 GD) is the weakest of any side in the top half of the table.

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – 10pts stake – Hoffenheim are currently 2.06 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.7, a 10.4% gap in implied % terms.

Hoffenheim have a 111pt Real TR advantage for this one (577 to 466) – We tipped Hoffenheim to lose last weekend (and they did, 2-1 at Hamburg) but they’re a very different side at home, currently holding an unbeaten record at the Rhein-Neckar Arena this season (9-5-0, 29-11, +18 GD). Meanwhile, Gladbach have played relatively poor away from home this season, reflected in their Away TR:

While all four of Gladbach’s away wins this season have come in the R├╝ckrunde (Bit of German for you there – the term for the second half of the season following the winter break), these wins have come against Koln, Ingolstadt, Bremen and Leverkusen – we’ve already seen how Koln aren’t quite as good as their league position would suggest and the other three all sit in the bottom half. This may be a tall order for Gladbach.

Mainz vs Hertha – 10pts stake – Mainz are currently 2.34 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.93, a 9.2% gap in implied % terms.

Mainz have a 52pt Real TR advantage over Hertha this weekend (510 to 458) – A run of five defeats has sent Mainz tumbling towards the relegation zone, including a pair of away defeats at bottom two Ingolstadt & Darmstadt. But we think they’ve played better at home this season than their lowly league position would suggest. They rank 10th in the Bundesliga on Adjusted Home TR:

Hertha though, have a 2-3-9 (13-25, -12 GD) record away from the Olympiastadion, with their sole wins being against Wolfsburg & Ingolstadt before Christmas, both teams in the bottom five. With an Adjusted Away TR of just 363, they rank 17th in the league on this measure.

Wolfsburg vs Ingolstadt – 10pts stake – Ingolstadt are currently 4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.05, a 7.8% gap in implied % terms.

Ingolstadt have a 5pt Real TR deficit for this fixture (466 to 471) – Ingolstadt looked destined for the drop three weeks ago but consecutive wins over Mainz, Augsburg & Darmstadt have cut their gap to safety to just one point. A win over Wolfsburg on Saturday would see them leapfrog their opponents. Unfortunately for Die Wolfe, Ingolstadt aren’t too bad away:

That’s an average away TR this season of 456.5, which ranks them somewhere in the middle of the pack in the Bundesliga and suggests that their performances have deserved a better record than their current 4-1-9 (14-23, -9 GD) away mark. Wolfsburg’s form has been hit and miss since the winter break – they’ve beaten Hoffenheim and Leipzig but somehow find themselves in relegation difficulties – that said, there have been signs that their overall performance levels have improved slightly recently, so this is a tough one to call, particularly given the impact that this match will have on the relegation picture.

German Bundesliga – 7th April-9th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 6th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen – 10pts stake – Eintracht are currently 2.12 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.65, a 13.35% gap in implied % terms.

Eintracht have a 134pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture (602 to 468) – Our model has continued to like Frankfurt this season, despite going on a terrible run in form as of late, not winning in their last eight Bundesliga games. Werder, meanwhile have taken 19 points out of a possible 21 from their last seven, with the only dropped points coming in a draw at Bayer Leverkusen.

Why do we continue to be so hot on Frankfurt? It’s probably due to the fact that their Overall TR as a 20 game rolling average has only declined from 595 to 576 over the past eight games:

They’ve done that by averaging 446 over their past eight games, which is a pretty good average given that they’ve only taken two points during that stretch from home games versus Hamburg and Gladbach, both games in which they scored a higher individual game Team Rating than their opponents:

What does this all mean? They’re not playing that badly, they’re not getting the results they deserve, sit tight and trust them to win this weekend.

FC Koln vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – 10pts stake – Koln are currently 2.68 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.00, a 12.7% gap in implied % terms.

Koln have a 46pt Real TR advantage over their opponents for this one (485 to 439) – Both teams this season have over-performed their rolling 20 game Team Rating so far this season – Koln sit in 5th whilst they’re ranked 13th according to the prior metric, whilst Gladbach are 9th and sit 15th by that metric.

The key thing to check out here is their respective home and away records – Koln have a 7-5-1 (20-10, +10 GD) home record, whilst Gladbach’s away record is 3-3-7 (10-22, -12 GD). Gladbach have performed pretty terribly all season on the road according to our algorithm and they rank just 16th by Adjusted Away TR over the past 20 games in the Bundesliga:

Look for a home win here.

Hamburg vs Hoffenheim – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 3.45 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.55, a 10.3% gap in implied % terms.

Hamburg have a 43pt Real TR deficit entering this match (514 to 557) – Hamburg lost at Dortmund 3-0 at the weekend, but have been on a fine run of form recently and have seen steady improvement in their 20 game rolling TR, from 437 after their defeat at Bayern to 495 now:

Hoffenheim meanwhile, have a wonderful record at home, but aren’t so strong away, where they have a 4-7-2 record (21-15, +6 GD). That said, they were impressive in winning 3-1 at Hertha in their last away game and recently inflicted just the second defeat on Bayern all season.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund – 10pts stake – Bayern are currently 1.68 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.45, a 9.55% gap in implied % terms.

Bayern have a 204pt Real TR advantage over Dortmund for this one (777 to 573) – The below graph probably gives a good indication of how dominant Bayern have been this season in the Bundesliga. This graph shows their 20 game rolling TR average – they are the top orange line:

Even in losing at Hoffenheim, Bayern still recorded a higher individual game Team Rating than their opponents (524 to 458), recording more shots in total and shots on target than their opponents. In fact, Bayern have achieved a higher individual game Team Rating than their opponents in EVERY league game they’ve played this season.

Dortmund are no slouches and we do not mean to disparage them in any way; they are simply a very good team playing away at a truly great one this weekend. Bet on a home win.

German Bundesliga – 31st March-2nd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – 100pts stake – Eintracht are currently 2.82 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.58, a 27.7% gap in implied % terms.

Eintracht have a 157pt Real TR advantage entering this one (601 to 444) – Frankfurt’s five game losing streak came to an end with their draw at home to a rapidly improving Hamburg team before the international break. Whilst that poor run of form has cost them any chance of a Champions League place, their performances at home taking a longer view have continued to be impressive – they’ve achieved higher individual game Team Ratings than their opponents in nine of their twelve home games this season (two of the exceptions, at home to Bayern & Freiburg, were very close):

Gladbach meanwhile, have a 3-2-7 away record (10-22, -12 GD) and this is backed up by their Adjusted Away TR, ranked 16th in the Bundesliga:

Schalke vs Borussia Dortmund – 50pts stake – Schalke are currently 2.32 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.64, a 17.8% gap in implied % terms.

Schalke have a 16pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (553 to 569) – Schalke boss Christian Weinzierl was under pressure a month ago, but a come from behind elimination of Borussia Moenchengladbach in the Europa League followed up by back to back Bundesliga victories over Augsburg and at Mainz has helped to strengthen his position. This upsurge in form has also been matched by an improvement in average Team Rating:

Dortmund’s long term statistics reflect their position in 3rd in the Bundesliga fairly well and in actual fact we peg them as slightly better than Leipzig, who sit above them. But before the break they did show some signs of slipping – they only managed a individual game Team Rating of 495 when they lost 2-1 at Hertha (rating – 502) and only 531 when beating relegation doomed Ingolstadt 1-0 at home, a game where their opponents had more shots than them.

Hamburg vs FC Koln – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 2.54 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.92, a 12.7% gap in implied % terms.

Hamburg have a 65pt Real TR advantage over their opponents (511 to 446) – Hamburg appear to be pulling off another daring escape from relegation and have responded well to an 8-0 hammering at Bayern by beating Hertha & Gladbach before drawing at Frankfurt. This improvement in form has also been matched by their 20 game rolling average TR which has improved from 398 to 488 since their 3-1 defeat at Ingolstadt on the 28th January:

Koln have struggled themselves away from home this season, with a 3-5-5 record (18-19, -1 GD) and they find themselves ranked 15th on our Adjusted Away TR metric, which measures team rating away from home and adjusts it for strength of schedule over that team’s past 20 games.

Hertha Berlin vs Hoffenheim – 10pts stake – Hertha are currently 2.74 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.35, a 6% gap in implied % terms.

Hertha have a 15pt disadvantage in Real TR coming into this match (525 to 540) – This is an interesting one – looking at our metrics, Hertha are ranked 9th on Adjusted TR for the last 20 games, whilst sat 5th in the table. This would usually influence us to advise against them, but Hertha are a far better team at home than they are away (ranked 6th on Adjusted Home TR on 605pts / ranked 17th on Adjusted Away TR on 366pts). That’s something that we don’t think is adequately priced in at the moment, which makes Hertha a marginal 10pt tip here.

German Bundesliga – 17th-19th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 14th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburg – 50pts stake – Eintracht are currently 2.32 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.64, a 17.8% gap in implied % terms.

Frankfurt have a 142pt Real TR advantage entering this one (603 to 461) – Frankfurt have lost their last five games in the Bundesliga, averaging a Team Rating of 373, a pretty poor mark even considering two of those defeats were at Bayern and Hertha. So why are we backing them here? We look at performances over the longer term rather than short runs of form, no matter how bad (although the recent run has been factored in).

As you can see, Frankfurt’s Adjusted TR over the past 20 games has dipped from 619 to 570 over the last six weeks (still good). Whilst Frankfurt have dipped, as you can see above, Hamburg have improved and their form has mirrored this, picking up 10 points in the last five games to take them away from the automatic relegation places. But we think Frankfurt’s poor form has made them over-priced for this one.

Augsburg vs Freiburg – 10pts stake – Augsburg are currently 2.46 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.92, a 11.4% gap in implied % terms.

Augsburg have a 68pt Real TR advantage for this fixture (514 to 446) – Both teams are in mixed runs of form here, but the important stat for us is their respective Adjusted TR’s. Augsburg are 13th in the league but 8th on Adjusted TR, whilst Freiburg are 8th in the league but 17th on Adjusted TR. The former are under-performing, the latter are over-performing.

Freiburg’s rating has dipped recently as a result of a couple of stronger early season performances dropping out of the average, which has caused them to fall down the rankings somewhat, but they have had some very poor performances in the last month against the likes of Dortmund and Hoffenheim which suggest they are to be opposed here.

Borussia Dortmund vs Ingolstadt – 10pts stake – Ingolstadt are currently 13 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 6.65, a 7.3% gap in implied % terms.

Ingolstadt have a 160pt Real TR deficit for this match (461 to 621) – Now we get into the realm of “big outsiders that present value bets”. But you can’t ignore big shots all the time, as we proved last week when tipping Deportivo to upset Barcelona at 13.5.

The Bavarians also have something going for them when it comes to playing away from home. Let’s look at their Adjusted Away TR here:

They’ve picked up more points away from home than at home and their TR also seems to suggest that they have a bit about them on the road. They’ve taken some surprising wins this season (Leverkusen, Leipzig, Frankfurt) and hopefully there might be another one here.

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Bayern Munich – 10pts stake – Moenchengladbach are currently 8.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5.46, a 6.4% gap in implied % terms.

Gladbach have a 212pt Real TR deficit for this one (507 to 719) – this is a fairly marginal call with a 6.4% implied gap, with the main reason for the back being the comparatively small gap between Gladbach’s home TR and Bayern’s away TR:

Gladbach have taken 16pts from eight games since the winter break and have found a little bit of their old swagger., averaging over 540 in their Team Rating during this stretch. It’s always a tall order to beat Bayern, but we think they’re a narrow value bet here.

German Bundesliga – 10th-12th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 7th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Hertha Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund – 50pts stake – Hertha are currently 5.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.78, a 18.7% gap in implied % terms.

Hertha have a 58pt Real TR deficit coming into this match (520 to 578) – Hertha have a pretty strong record at the Olympiastadion this season (9-1-1, 19-5, +14 GD), whilst in comparison, Dortmund are relatively weak away from home (4-4-4 record, 24-18, +6 GD). Hertha are also strong this season according to our metrics, ranking 6th in the Bundesliga according to Adjusted Home TR:

Hertha are 6 points behind Dortmund, who sit in 3rd in the table and a win would be crucial for their hopes of making a Champions League place – at 5.8, they look overpriced to pick up that victory this weekend.

Hamburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 2.84 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.06, a 13.4% gap in implied % terms.

Hamburg have a 42pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (486 to 444) – we’ve tipped Hamburg this weekend largely on the basis of Gladbach’s shocking away performances:

Whilst Gladbach have picked up a couple of away wins against strugglers recently, Hamburg are better at home than their league position would suggest, with an Adjusted Home TR of 519 ranking them 12th in the Bundesliga. They’ve been in unpredictable form recently, but their 8-0 shellacking at Bayern can be looked at as a one-off that can and does happen against a side as good as the league leaders.

Schalke vs Augsburg – 10pts stake – Augsburg are currently 5.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.47, a 11% gap in implied % terms.

Augsburg have a 50pt Real TR deficit heading into this clash (484 to 534) – Both teams are under-performing their Team Ratings this season, with Schalke 13th in the league and 6th on overall team rating, whilst Augsburg are 12th and 8th respectively. Markus Weinzierl has been under pressure this season and while Schalke’s issues have mainly come on the road rather than at the Veltins Arena, they are an inconsistent side and Augsburg have a decent away record (4-3-4, 11-11, 0 GD).

Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen – 10pts stake – Werder Bremen are currently 5.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.06, a 6.5% gap in implied % terms.

Werder have a 83pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (442 to 525) – We have another relatively big priced away team here and with Roger Schmidt sacked after Bayer’s 6-2 loss at Dortmund at the weekend, this may be a good time for Werder to strike. Werder have also won their last three games in the Bundesliga against Mainz, Wolfsburg and Darmstadt and their away team rating has risen in recent weeks:

German Bundesliga – 3rd-5th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg – 50pts stake – Frankfurt are currently 2.16 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.57, a 17.4% gap in implied % terms.

Frankfurt have a 169pt Real TR advantage for this game (629 to 460) – Frankfurt have lost their last three games, losing at Leverkusen & Hertha and surprisingly getting beat at home to Ingolstadt. Their Adjusted TR has fallen, but not hugely:

Freiburg are 9th in the Bundesliga, but have been slightly over-performing their Team Rating this season, ranking 12th on Adjusted TR on an overall basis. Freiburg’s away record isn’t particularly impressive either (2-3-6, 14-23, -9 GD).

Augsburg vs RB Leipzig – 10pts stake – Augsburg are currently 4.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.06, a 10.9% gap in implied % terms.

Augsburg have a 83pt Real TR deficit for this game (509 to 592) – Augsburg have won three of their last five in the Bundesliga and these wins have all come against fellow relegation strugglers. But according to our metrics, they have under-performed their Team Rating this season:

Leipzig are trying to maintain contact with Bayern in the title race, but played poorly in recent losses to Dortmund (where they only had a Team Rating of 174 for that game) and Hamburg (237).

Hamburg vs Hertha Berlin – 10pts stake – Hamburg are currently 2.62 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.12, a 8.9% gap in implied % terms.

Hamburg have a 34pt Real TR advantage entering this match (465 to 431) – Hamburg are fighting against relegation (again) and their mini-revival was ended when on the wrong end of a 8-0 shellacking at Bayern on Saturday. But they have a real chance in this one, helped out by Hertha’s atrocious Adjusted TR away from home:

Hertha are ranked 17th in the Bundesliga on this measure with a rating of just 341. This is mirrored by their away record of 2-3-6 (11-19, -8 GD). If it’s any consolation for Hertha fans, their away wins this term have come at Wolfsburg and Ingolstadt, two teams like Hamburg fighting against the drop.

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Schalke – 10pts stake – Schalke are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.78, a 6.1% gap in implied % terms.

Schalke have a 2pt Real TR advantage for this game (512 to 510) – After a bad start to the season, Schalke’s performances have improved significantly of late. They’ve gone four unbeaten, all against top half teams (at Bayern, beating Hertha at home, drawing at Koln and home to Hoffenheim), a run that has seen their Adjusted TR increase by a fair bit:

Gladbach have gone on a run of four wins in their last five to pull themselves away from the relegation zone, but they’re still not at the level that saw them qualify for the Europa League last season, and they’re not under-performing in the same way that Schalke have been for much of this season.

German Bundesliga 24th-26th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 4 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Freiburg vs Dortmund – 50pts stake – Freiburg are currently 5.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.6, a 21.5% gap in % terms.

Freiburg have a 47pt Real TR deficit entering this one (509 to 556) – Freiburg have played pretty well this season and we think this is a case of a small club being over-priced when playing against a better known foe. The thing you watch out for here is the gap between Freiburg’s home Adjusted TR and Dortmund’s away Adjusted TR:

Secondly, Freiburg have a strong home record this season (7-0-3, 14-13, +1 GD) whilst Dortmund’s away record is comparatively poor (3-4-4, 21-18, +3 GD). Dortmund haven’t just struggled on the road against the big sides either; their most recent away defeat was a shock 2-0 loss to Darmstadt. This definitely looks like a big value bet.

Hertha vs Eintracht Frankfurt – 10pts stake – Frankfurt are currently 4.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.54, a 14.9% gap in % terms.

Eintracht Frankfurt have a 44pt Real TR advantage (563 to 519) entering this match – Eintracht seem to come up every week on here, but that must mean they continue to be undervalued (even if they don’t win every week). And looking at Adjusted TR, they have a significant advantage here:

We tipped Hertha last weekend when they came seconds from beating Bayern before a last kick Lewandowski equaliser, but they were still second best in that game and a win would probably have been undeserved. Neither team’s form has been great recently, but with the exception of last week’s shock home loss versus Ingolstadt, Frankfurt’s defeats of late have been away at quality opposition.

Ingolstadt vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – 10pts stake – Ingolstadt are currently 2.84 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.11, a 12.1% gap in % terms.

Ingolstadt have a 28pt Real TR advantage for this one (458 to 430) – Ingolstadt pulled off a shock 2-0 win at Frankfurt in last weekend’s Bundesliga round and will be looking to follow that win up against a Gladbach team who are fairly weak away from home. They currently have a 2-2-6 away record (7-20, -13 GD) and this is backed up by their Adjusted TR away from home this season in the Bundesliga:

Gladbach have been in better form as of late, although this was ended in losing 1-2 at home to Leipzig at the weekend. Looking at their Adjusted TR ratings, these teams are very close to each other on an overall basis:

Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen – 10pts stake Werder are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.08, a 9.75% gap in % terms.

Werder have a 11pt Real TR deficit entering this match (446 to 457) – Werder ended a four game losing streak in the Bundesliga with a win at Mainz last weekend that stopped them falling into the relegation zone. They face another big game this weekend against a fellow relegation candidate in Wolfsburg. Given how close these teams are to each other in terms of Adjusted TR, we think Werder are a bit too big at 4.4 to win on the road:

Both teams have pretty much identically mediocre home and away records, so there’s not really the sort of home advantage for Wolfsburg that should give them any sort of significant favouritism in the market for this tie.