Category Archives: French Ligue 1

French Ligue 1 – 5th-7th May ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 2nd May. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Toulouse vs Caen – 10pts stake – Caen are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.57, a 9.5% gap in % terms.

Caen have a 65pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (476 to 411) – Both teams are on pretty poor runs at the moment, although Caen look in way more danger, having taken two points from their last eight games to slide into the Ligue 1 relegation zone. They also have a very poor 2-4-11 away record (13-27, -14 GD). So why do we rate their chances to pick up an unlikely away win here?

Toulouse’s ratings, both home and away continue to be very poor and they rank 20th and last by Adjusted Home TR:

Toulouse haven’t won in four and have had just 30 shots on target and 5 goals in their last ten games, conceding 47 and 11 respectively. Those aren’t precursors to a great run of form by any stretch and until they start showing they can match their opponents in this regard, the model’s going to go against them.

Guingamp vs Dijon – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 2.13 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.77, a 9.5% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 108pt Real TR advantage for this game (539 to 431) – this is a classic good side at home, bad side away match-up. The hosts have a 10-3-4 (23-13, +10 GD) record at home (although let us down when tipped at home to St Etienne last weekend). Dijon have a 1-6-10 (19-33, -14 GD) record on the road.

With a home Adjusted TR of 611, Guingamp rank 6th in Ligue 1:

And that Adjusted Home/Away TR split of +217.9 ranks 2nd in Ligue 1 over the last 20 games. What does that tell us? Guingamp are far better at home than they are away and the difference between performances home and away is very wide in comparison to the rest of the division.

Lorient vs Angers – 10pts stake – Angers are currently 3.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.88, a 6.9% gap in % terms.

Angers have a 30pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (503 to 473) – Having won five of six through February and March, Les Angevins have now lost their last five and are fortunate for the points collected earlier in the spring. But there is a mitigating factor to this poor run – they have played Lyon, PSG and Monaco during this stretch. They now face a far weaker side in the shape of Lorient, who looked doomed a couple of months ago but who have won four out of their last six to climb out of the bottom three.

As you can see, Angers have been very much one of our under-performers this season; they sit 5th by Adjusted TR over the past 20 games yet are 14th in Ligue 1. Seeing a result this week that reflects their underlying metrics with us might help us make some profit from them.

Marseille vs Nice – 10pts stake – Marseille are currently 1.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.72, a 6.1% gap in % terms.

Marseille have a 121pt Real TR advantage for this one (588 to 467) – We spoke above about Angers being under-performersNice on the other hand are very much over-performers. Their ratings with us have been significantly below where we’d expect a team who have spent much of this campaign challenging for the title, which can occasionally happen with pacy teams who like to play on the counter attack (Leicester last term), or hardened defensive battlers (Atletico Madrid). That said, we do think that the best way to guarantee long term success (or at least try to) is to regularly dominate games and create more chances than their opponents. It’s not rocket science…

Marseille have been typically strong at home this term with a 11-4-2 record (30-12, +18 GD). They have only tasted defeat at the Stade Velodrome against Monaco and PSG, where they were thrashed on both occasions. But Nice have scored 20 away goals to PSG’s 36 and Monaco’s 38 and it’s difficult to see them doing the same as those two sides. Additionally, Nice have averaged only 462 in their last six away games in individual game Team Rating – they’re simply not dominating teams away from home as of late:

Given this, we think Marseille are a marginal value bet to get the better of their near neighbours this weekend.

French Ligue 1 – 28th April-30th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 5 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Thursday 27th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Guingamp vs St Etienne – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 2.46 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.76, a 16.3% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 112pt Real TR advantage heading into this fixture (547 to 435) – We tipped Guingamp last weekend at Lille and it didn’t go well as they lost 3-0. But they have been a far more impressive side at home this season, where they can boast a 10-3-3 record (23-11, +12 GD) in Ligue 1. This is backed up by their Adjusted Home TR over their past 20 games, which is ranked 5th in the division:

St Etienne meanwhile have become big over-performers this season. Les Verts sit 7th in Ligue 1, but 14th on Adjusted TR. They have struggled recently, winning just one of their previous eight in the league:

Angers vs Lyon – 10pts stake – Angers are currently 3.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 14.8% gap in % terms.

Angers have a 11pt Real TR advantage entering this game (580 to 569) – Angers were another team we tipped last week who failed to win (although at least they performed creditably in losing 3-2 at Dijon). However, their performances at home have been very good this season, as can be seen by their Adjusted Home TR stat. In this respect, they’re actually quite similar to Guingamp:

Their Home/Away split of +263.1 is ranked 1st in Ligue 1 – this means that they have the biggest gap of any side in the division between their home and away performances. If this was a negative number, this would mean that their away performances are better than their home performances (this is obviously a fairly rare occurrence).

Lyon meanwhile, have been in shaky form recently and sustained a shock 1-4 defeat at home to Lorient before losing at home to Monaco. Their performances up until then had been pretty good according to our metrics and they still rank 3rd on overall Adjusted TR over the past 20 games.

Metz vs Nancy – 10pts stake – Metz are currently 2.62 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.99, a 12% gap in % terms.

Metz have a 62pt Real TR advantage for this one (446 to 384) – Nancy have only won once in their last twelve, whilst Metz haven’t won in five as two teams struggling against relegation face off here. Nancy have been on a terrible run of form since beating Nantes in early February, which was their last away victory. Their Adjusted Away TR ranks as the worst in Ligue 1:

Metz meanwhile, appear to be a far stronger side at home than away. This is becoming a bit of a theme in the course of this preview:

Montpellier vs Lille – 10pts stake – Montpellier are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.84, a 8.9% gap in % terms.

Montpellier have a 93pt Real TR advantage heading into this match (569 to 476) – Montpellier have come up on our radar quite frequently over the last couple of months or so and appear again this weekend. They had beaten Caen and Lorient when tipped by us before unsurprisingly succumbing 2-0 to PSG last time out. They have a decent home record (8-5-4, 27-16, +11 GD) and their Adjusted TR has been fairly impressive recently, ranking 5th on the 20 game rolling average:

Lille have been very inconsistent this season and have struggled to put together any kind of consistent run of form. They’ve averaged 500 in individual game Team Rating over the past six games, which is as average as you can get.

French Ligue 1 – 21st April-23rd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 0 home tips and 5 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

St Etienne vs Rennes – 10pts stake – Rennes are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.68, a 13.6% gap in % terms.

Rennes have a 52pt Real TR advantage for this one (524 to 472) – Both of these sides are very similar looking at the league table, with Les Verts sat in 7th on 45 points, with Rennes in 9th on 43 points. Rennes however do have an advantage when it comes to our Adjusted TR metric, as can be seen below:

Rennes do have a poor away record of 1-7-8 this season (8-25, -17 GD) but looking at their individual game Team Ratings this season in away games, they haven’t been quite as bad as you’d think. This suggests that their performances have been better than their results imply, suggesting a reversion to the mean which would see them pick up some wins on the road.

PSG vs Montpellier – 10pts stake – Montpellier are currently 17 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 6.79, a 8.85% gap in % terms.

PSG have a 136pt Real TR advantage for this one (669 to 533) – This is certainly our “long shot of the week” tip. Montpellier have come through for us recently when winning at Caen and beating basement dwellers Lorient at home. They may be 12th in Ligue 1 but sit 6th in overall Adjusted TR over the previous 20 games:

Montpellier have scored 20 away goals in 16 away Ligue 1 games so far this season, which is more than any other side away from home outside the top five. They’ll need firepower from the likes of Ryad Boudebouz & Casimir Ninga to get through a parsimonious PSG defence that has conceded just 6 goals in 16 games at the Parc des Princes.

Dijon vs Angers – 10pts stake – Angers are currently 3.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.9, a 5.9% gap in % terms.

Angers have a 28pt Real TR advantage entering this match (507 to 479) – Les Angevins have been frequently tipped in these pages this season and they’ve been a consistent under-performer – they’re placed 13th in Ligue 1 and 5th in Adjusted TR over the past 20 games:

While we tended to have tipped Angers at home this season due to their strong performances, their Away TR has risen slightly too over the last few weeks. Dijon meanwhile are tumbling towards the drop, having taken just two points in their last eight games whilst averaging an individual game Team Rating of just 370.5 during this stretch.

Lille vs Guingamp – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.24, a 5.9% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 2pt Real TR deficit for this fixture (478 to 480) – Guingamp’s form has slipped slightly in the second half of the season and they haven’t won away since beating Lyon 3-1 back in October. They do have a strong home record, which we took advantage of when tipping them to beat Toulouse last weekend, which they did (see above vid). But they have the advantage here of playing a Lille side who are almost unique in Ligue 1 in this side in being a better side on the road than at home. Let’s look at their Adjusted Home TR which ranks really poorly:

Lille’s Adjusted Home TR of 481 ranks just 18th in Ligue 1 and their Adjusted Home/Away TR split of +19.4 is the 2nd lowest in the division behind Bordeaux. Lille will need to put their home woes behind them if they wish to secure top flight football for next season before Marcelo Bielsa takes over this summer.

French Ligue 1 – 14th April-16th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 11th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Angers vs PSG – 100pts stake – Angers are currently 12 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.87, a 26.5% gap in % terms.

Angers have a 55pt Real TR deficit heading into this fixture (612 vs 667) – At this stage you’re probably wondering what’s going on with a team at 12’s being recommended a 100pt stake. Let us explain. We are not saying PSG are bad. On the contrary, they are very good, probably the second best team in Ligue 1 behind Monaco right now. But they are running into a team this weekend whose league position completely belies how well they have been performing at home. According to our metrics at least. Let’s look at the below Adjusted Home TR table showing Adjusted TR on a rolling average basis over the past 20 games:

As you can see, Angers not only have a record of very strong performances at home, but they have a Home/Away Adjusted TR split of +260.7, ranking 1st in Ligue 1. They play far better at home than away, achieving higher individual game TR’s than their opponents in 14 of 16 home games this season (and they didn’t have much lower scores in the two that they didn’t, in losses to Monaco and Nantes). While PSG will be justified favourites on Saturday, Angers have to be value at double figure odds.

Guingamp vs Toulouse – 50pts stake – Guingamp are currently 2.14 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.51, a 19.5% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 185pt Real TR advantage for this one (561 to 376) – Here’s another example of a side being far better at home than away and probably being under-valued by a fair bit as a result. The story’s quite simple for this one – the hosts have a 9-3-3 (21-10, +11 GD) home record and have a stronger home TR ranking than their league position:

Toulouse meanwhile have a 2-7-7 (6-17, -11 GD) away record and whilst they sit in 9th, level on points with Guingamp in the table, their away record is certainly reflected in their very poor Away TR:

And finally, Toulouse have averaged an individual game TR of just 394 over their past seven games. This has definitely got home back written all over it.

Montpellier vs Lorient – 10pts stake – Montpellier are currently 2.06 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.68, a 11.1% gap in % terms.


Montpellier have got a 134pt Real TR advantage ahead of this fixture (568 to 434) – Montpellier have let us down repeatedly in recent weeks but like with Frankfurt, we don’t let trifling nonentities such as results dissuade us from tipping teams. Here we go again…

The hosts sit 14th in Ligue 1, just five points above the drop zone with six games to go. But according to our metrics, this belies the strength of their performances over the last 20 games – they are under-performers. Indeed, they sit 6th on our Adjusted TR metric, having seen their rolling averages increase through the season before plateauing five or six weeks ago:

They’ve also averaged 526 in their last 10 Ligue 1 games whilst playing the likes of Monaco and Nice:

Lorient are a harder one to call – their form all season had been terrible and they looked destined to be relegated. But they’ve won three on the bounce and shocked Lyon 4-1 away at the weekend to move out of the two automatic relegation slots. They averaged 525 across those three games, but it’s a small sample size and they’re running into a “sneaky good” side here.

Marseille vs St Etienne – 10pts stake – Marseille are currently 1.94 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.61, a 10.5% gap in % terms.

(Trigger warning for West Ham fans, don’t look below).

Marseille have a 152pt Real TR advantage entering this one (596 to 444) – Following a 5-1 defeat at home to PSG, the side from the Stade Velodrome have taken advantage of an easy fixture schedule to put together a five game unbeaten run. What we’re interested in is their home record (10-4-2, 26-12, +14 GD), which is reflected in their Adjusted Home TR:

As you can see, their performances have been very strong at home, whilst away their weaknesses have prevented them from getting into the Champions League hunt. Meanwhile, Les Verts performances have tailed off slightly after a strong start to the second half of the season after the Christmas break and they’ve struggled to impose themselves on the top six this season.

French Ligue 1 – 7th April-9th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Thursday 6th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Angers vs Monaco – 50pts stake – Angers are currently 5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.84, a 15.2% gap in % terms.

Angers have a 59pt Real TR deficit entering this one – looks like this is our high stakes long shot pick of the weekend! Angers’ record may look fairly pedestrian, but according to our metrics, they’ve performed very well at home this season and have the 3rd highest Adjusted Home TR over the past 20 games:

As you can see from the above screenshot, they also have the strongest Home/Away split in Team Rating this season of any Ligue 1 side. 676 at home, 384 away.

They’ve also achieved a higher individual game Team Rating than their opponents in 14 out of their 15 Ligue 1 home matches so far this season:

Monaco are still the best side in France by our metrics, but they are naturally weaker and have slightly less gaudy offensive statistics on the road. They also have an upcoming Tuesday night Champions League quarter final trip to Dortmund that may be on their minds.

Toulouse vs Marseille – 10pts stake – Marseille are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.1, a 9.2% gap in % terms.

Marseille have a 145pt Real TR advantage for this game (544 to 399) – This is a strange one as a team with a decent home record (Toulouse) host a team with a poor away record (Marseille). So why are we going with what appears to be a counter-intuitive pick?

Toulouse to us look like big over-performers – they sit 10th in Ligue 1, yet 20th and last on average 20 game TR:


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And they also have the lowest home TR over the past 20 games (home & away) as well, averaging 454 in the 10 home games during that span. In their past 10 home games, they’ve only achieved higher individual game Team Ratings than their opponents in three of those games:

Marseille meanwhile, have gone unbeaten in their last four and after having been thrashed by PSG 5-1 have shown improvement recently in away performances at Lorient and Lille.

Lille vs Nice – 10pts stake – Lille are currently 2.58 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.22, a 6.3% gap in % terms.

Lille have a 17pt Real TR advantage for this match (470 to 453) – Nice have in many respects been the great over-performers this season, managing to maintain a title challenge built upon relative defensive solidity whilst lacking the firepower of Monaco and PSG. Their away form has been patchy though with a string of draws at lower placed teams leaving them as extreme outsiders in the race for Le Championnat.

Nice rank just 10th in 20 game Overall TR, suggesting that for much of the season they’ve managed to achieve results which have bettered the actual performances they’ve put in. And looking at Adjusted Away TR, the situation is even worse:

Lille meanwhile have managed to go on a run of form that has lifted them away from the relegation zone, with two wins and two draws in their last four. One word of caution here would be that they are a rarity in Ligue 1 for being as good if not better away from home than at their place, the Stade Metropole. But Nice were outplayed at Rennes, Lorient and Nantes and their league position really belies the strength of their play away from home.

Nancy vs Rennes – 10pts stake – Rennes are currently 2.96 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.54, a 5.5% gap in % terms.

Rennes have a 78pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture (514 to 438) – Rennes have had a terrible away record this season (1-7-7, 8-22, -14 GD) but we have seen a recent improvement in their performances away from home, averaging 540 in their last five away league games (against Bordeaux, Angers, Marseilles, Metz, Toulouse):

The hosts meanwhile are on a dreadful run of form – they’ve taken 1 point out of their last 27, that being a 0-0 draw at home to Toulouse. The mediocrity of Ligue 1 though means they’re only one point off safety. And frighteningly, their last win was a 2-0 victory at Nantes, when, y’know, we tipped Nantes…

French Ligue 1 – 31st March-2nd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Montpellier vs Toulouse – 50pts stake – Montpellier are currently 2.16 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.44, a 23% gap in % terms.

Montpellier have a 198pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture (580 to 382) – We seem to have backed Montpellier on numerous occasions recently, with them being a heavy under-performer, ranked 7th in TR against a league position of 15th:

As you can see, Toulouse meanwhile are ranked last on this measure in Ligue 1 and have a terrible 1-7-7 away record to match (5-17, -12 GD). Hopefully the hosts will repay our affection with a win for once.

Rennes vs Lyon – 50pts stake – Rennes are currently 4.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.3, a 21.7% gap in % terms.

Rennes have a 3pt Real TR deficit entering this match (532 to 535) – Rennes have a strong home record (8-5-2, 20-11, +9 GD) while Lyon have lost four of their last five away games (losses at Caen, St Etienne, Bordeaux, PSG). Looking at our metrics, the key thing to watch out for is the gap between Rennes’ Home Adjusted TR and Lyon’s Away Adjusted TR:

There’s a 93pt gap between the two numbers – and this tells a broader story about Ligue 1 this season, which is that home sides have dominated and very few teams have done particularly well away from home. We don’t think that this has been adequately factored into odds formation and therefore teams like Rennes are overpriced as a consequence.

Bastia vs Lille – 10pts stake – Bastia are currently 3.45 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.34, a 13.8% gap in % terms.

Bastia have the same Real TR as Lille coming into this fixture (481) – With both teams on the same Real TR for this one, we think Bastia are over-priced as a consequence, despite being in a relegation fight entering the last eight games of the season. This is a tough one to call at first glance, as both teams under-perform their respective home and away Adjusted Team Ratings.

However our model also takes into consideration how likely teams in a given league are to win over the course of a season given their Real Team Rating differential. In this case where their ratings are even, home teams perform better than Bastia’s current odds would suggest, which means we think they’ve overpriced for this particular match.

Guingamp vs Nancy – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 1.92 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.56, a 14.6% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 160pt Real TR advantage for this one (543 to 383) – The hosts have had an up and down season, one of the smaller teams in the French top flight. They had a good start and beat PSG pre-Christmas to go into the top six, but their form has regressed somewhat during this calendar year. They do have a strong home record of 8-3-3 in Ligue 1 though (20-10, +10 GD) and with those home defeats coming against Monaco, Nice and Caen, they have only lost once at home to a side outside the top three.

As you can see above, Nancy are ranked 19th in Adjusted TR and they are 18th in the table, suggesting that they are neither under-performing or over-performing their underlying metrics. Basically, they look bad and they are bad. They haven’t scored in their last four away games and their one away win of the season at Nantes was against the only side in Ligue 1 to be as good away from home as they are at home. Guingamp should do this.

French Ligue 1 – 17th-19th March ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 4 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 14th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Dijon vs St Etienne – 10pts stake – Dijon are currently 3.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.13, a 14.6% gap in % terms.

Dijon have a 29pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (497 to 468) – Both teams have come up on our radar in recent weeks, with Dijon under-perfoming and St Etienne over-performing. Dijon sit 17th in Ligue 1 whilst being ranked 14th in Adjusted TR. St Etienne are 7th in the table, whilst being ranked 12th on this metric:

The hosts also have a relatively strong home record (5-5-4, 21-16, +5 GD) versus their opponents’ away record (3-5-6, 13-15, -2 GD). This ultimately leads to Dijon being a relatively strong value bet this weekend.

Bordeaux vs Montpellier – 10pts stake – Montpellier are currently 4.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.86, a 12.2% gap in % terms.

Montpellier have a 41pt Real TR advantage for this game (543 to 502) – Montpellier have sunk a couple of our accumulators in recent weeks with us hoping that the third time’s a charm for this encounter. As you can see here, one side’s over-performing whilst Monty are under-performing:

Montpellier’s away record is certainly nothing to shout about (1-4-9, 17-34, -17 GD) but Bordeaux’s home/away Adjusted TR split (499 at home, 507 away, -8 split, ranked 20th and last in Ligue 1) means that they have a good chance of actually making us not look like idiots this time.

Toulouse vs Rennes – 10pts stake – Rennes are currently 4.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.87, a 11.1% gap in % terms.

Rennes have a 41pt Real TR advantage for this one (477 to 436) – Here’s one where a look at their respective home and away records wouldn’t help to identify why we’re choosing Rennes for an upset victory this weekend:

But a look at their Adjusted TR overall tells a vastly different story:

Toulouse have an average Team Rating of 453 over their past six games, with tough away games at PSG and Lyon in this spell balanced out by games against Lorient, Bastia, Lille and Nancy. The latter four sides all sit in the bottom seven in Ligue 1.

Angers vs Guingamp – 10pts stake – Angers are currently 2.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.85, a 10.6% gap in % terms.

Angers have a 86pt Real TR advantage for this fixture (562 to 476) – We tipped Guingamp a couple of times earlier this year, but things have changed a little bit. Angers’ run of four consecutive Ligue 1 victories was ended with defeat at Marseille last weekend, but at home they are a strong proposition:

What does that stat on the right of the above screenshot tell you? That Angers’ comparative performances home and away show the biggest positive split in the division. They have an Adjusted Home TR of 648 and an Adjusted Away TR of 387, a 261 point difference which is the biggest in Ligue 1 over the past 20 games.

French Ligue 1 – 10th-12th March ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 7th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Lorient vs PSG – 50pts stake – Lorient are currently 15 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.95, a 18.6% gap in % terms.

Lorient have a 178pt Real TR deficit entering this one (502 to 680) – This is one that looks outrageous, but there are signs that Lorient have more of a chance in this one than it would appear at first glance. The distribution of wins this season in Ligue 1 is very much biased towards home teams – there aren’t any teams with a truly terrible record at home, whilst only five teams have won 1/3rd of their away games or more.

PSG have the strongest away record this season in Ligue 1, with 10 wins and 4 losses. But Lorient also have a very good home Adjusted TR given where they sit in the table:

And with an average individual game TR of 495 over the past 8 home games, they’ve also managed to perform respectably against some of the better sides:

Which is why at 14/1 we think they might just be worth a back this weekend.

Montpellier vs Nantes – 50pts stake – Montpellier are currently 2.16 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.6, a 16.2% gap in % terms.

Montpellier have a 139pt Real TR advantage entering this one (588 to 449) – this is more of a sure one (and is a nice cover for the more speculative punt above). Montpellier may be one place below Nantes in the table, but have played far better over the past 20 games according to the Overall TR rolling average:

Montpellier have also recorded a 532.57 average TR over the past 7 games, playing Marseille, Monaco, St Etienne & Nice during that stretch. They seem to be improving steadily, but perhaps not just finding steady form as yet having played a difficult run of games. Nantes are a tough team to predict – they’ve taken some heavy defeats this season, most recently at Monaco, but are relatively good away from home and were finding some form before that defeat.

Nancy vs Lille – 10pts stake – Nancy are currently 2.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.21, a 9.6% gap in % terms.

Nancy have a 7pt Real TR deficit for this clash (455 to 462) – This is another one where the disparity between the home side’s TR at home and the away side’s TR on the road is the key factor behind the tip. Here are the numbers:

Nancy’s biggest problem here is their lack of goals – they’ve failed to score in their last six Ligue 1 games, whilst having 54 shots with 13 of those on target.

Monaco vs Bordeaux – 10pts stake – Monaco are currently 1.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.41, a 6.4% gap in % terms.

Monaco have a 211pt Real TR advantage entering this one (697 to 486) – Monaco have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch this season in Europe and whilst we predict their gaudy goal scoring rate will decline soon (their shot conversion stats are off the charts), they’ve still been a very, very good team this season, particularly at home. They have a very high Adjusted TR at home:

As you can see, Bordeaux aren’t too bad away from home at all and have won their last three games on the road (at Lille, Caen and Nancy). However, this is a rather different scale of task against a side who have averaged 3.5 goals at home this season in Ligue 1, the sort of mark you might expect to see from Barcelona or Real Madrid in La Liga. At 1.55, Monaco look too big here.

French Ligue 1 – 3rd-5th March ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 7 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 28th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Bastia vs St Etienne – 50pts stake – Bastia are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 23.4% gap in % terms.

Bastia have a 63pt Real TR advantage for this fixture (521 to 458) – One of the by-products of our system is that some teams can get picked to win week after week. It’s the converse for teams who have over-performed so far this season and we end up picking whoever’s playing them from week to week. We tipped Caen to win at St Etienne last weekend, this time we’re picking Bastia to beat them at home:

Bastia are in the relegation zone but have been a tough nut to crack in Corsica this season, holding a 3-7-3 home record (12-11, +1 GD). Like many Ligue 1 sides, St Etienne have struggled away from home this season (3-4-6, 13-15, -2 GD despite being 6th in the league) and they’ve also lost three out of their last four Ligue 1 games plus losing both legs of their Europa League tie versus Manchester United.

Dijon vs Nice – 50pts stake – Dijon are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.14, a 17.3% gap in % terms.

Dijon have a 6pt Real TR advantage coming into this one (501 to 495) – Dijon are 18th and Nice 3rd in Ligue 1, but they aren’t separated by much in terms of Adjusted TR:

Why is this? Nice have had a freakishly good record when it comes to conceding goals given their overall defensive play. Only 5.8% of their shots faced have been goals, the best mark in Ligue 1 (compared to an average of 10.9%). Only 19.4% of their shots on target faced have been goals, the 2nd best mark in Ligue 1 (compared to an average of 31.9%). Given that they’ve also faced 57 more shots this season than they’ve had, these above stats suggest that they’re over-performing and that their results will eventually start to reflect their performance better.

Dijon are perhaps slightly under-performing given that they sit 14th in Ligue 1 in terms of Adjusted TR, but on the whole they are where they deserve to be. But our model seeks out value bets and Nice’s record means that betting against them tends to provides value.

Lorient vs Marseilles – 50pts stake – Lorient are currently 3.35 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.22, a 15.15% gap in % terms.

Lorient have a 10pt Real TR deficit for this game (499 to 509) – Lorient are another under-performing side this season – they sit 12th on Adjusted TR whilst sitting bottom of Ligue 1. The Betterbet model’s performed well in Ligue 1 this term and we wonder whether the amount of teams performing differently to their results is influencing this:

Marseilles, meanwhile, took a big loss at home to PSG at the weekend. That 5-1 defeat against their biggest rivals may have hit them hard and they’ve struggled on the road this season. They have a 2-3-8 (14-25, -11 GD) away record more akin to that of a team fighting relegation. This is their Adjusted TR away from home this season and it’s not pretty:

Metz vs Rennes – 10pts stake – Metz are currently 3.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.32, a 10.8% gap in % terms.

Metz hold a 28pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (442 to 470) – Rennes have been another team in Ligue 1 with a terrible away record (1-5-7, 7-21, -14 GD). Although Metz have been one of the worst performing teams in the division this season, we’re tipping them for this due to their relative strength at home versus Rennes’ weakness away:

Metz may be in the bottom three, but their home record of 5-4-3 (18-23, -5 GD) is relatively strong. Ligue 1 has had a relatively strong “bias” to home sides this season; only one team in the division has won less than 5 home league games during this campaign.

French Ligue 1 – 24th-26th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Wednesday 22nd February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Marseilles vs PSG – 50pts stake – Marseilles are currently 5.7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.52, a 22.2% gap in % terms.

Marseilles have a 59pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (581 to 640) – this is traditionally the biggest game in the calendar in Ligue 1 and while PSG probably have more riding on this as they try to defend their title against the twin threats of Monaco and Nice, Marseilles are particularly strong at home, looking at their Adjusted TR:

The above tells us that Marseilles are not just strong at home, they have the biggest Adjusted Home/Away TR split in the division, with a score of 673 at home and 393 away from the Stade Velodrome. This is backed up by their 9-3-1 home record this season (21-6, +15 GD). PSG have been shakier on the road this season, but they have won their last four away games in Ligue 1.

Guingamp vs Monaco – 10pts stake – Guingamp are currently 5.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.02, a 13.9% gap in % terms.

Guingamp have a 121pt Real TR deficit coming into this one (485 vs 606) – we’ve tipped Guingamp a few times this season at home, most notably when they defeated PSG 2-1 in Brittany. Guingamp have slipped recently, losing four of their last five, but can take heart in the fact that despite being top, Monaco aren’t as lethal away as they are at home:

Guingamp have beaten Lyon, PSG and Marseilles at home this season in building their 7-3-2 home record (14-8, +6 GD) and may fancy their chances of adding another big scalp against a side who played an exhausting and exhilarating Champions League first leg midweek.

Nancy vs Toulouse – 10pts stake – Nancy are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.02, a 11% gap in % terms.

Nancy have a 29pt Real TR advantage for this game (451 to 422) – Nancy played midweek and lost a big relegation six pointer at Caen 1-0, a defeat that sent them into the relegation zone. Why do we think they’re a good value bet here? Let’s look at Toulouse’s rating – they appear to have drastically over-performed this season, they’re currently 8th in Ligue 1, but sit just 17th in Adjusted TR on an overall basis:

This poor record in terms of Adjusted Team Rating isn’t any better away from home, where their score of 368 is the third lowest in Ligue 1. This is backed up by their very poor away record so far in 2016/17, 1-6-6 (5-13, -8 GD) on the road this season.

Lille vs Bordeaux – 10pts stake – Lille are currently 2.65 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.2, a 7.8% gap in % terms.

Lille have a 6pt Real TR deficit entering this match (475 to 481) – with these two teams very close in terms of Real TR, they are also very close in terms of Adjusted TR:

Whilst Bordeaux have improved their Adjusted TR in recent weeks, coming into a good stretch of form with the exception of a home defeat to PSG, they continue to slightly over-perform their Team Rating in terms of their overall record. They are also a little bit of an anomaly this season, with the side being the only team in Ligue 1 to have a better Adjusted Away TR than their home equivalent. This suggests that they should be quite a good side away from home, but their away record of 4-5-3 this season in Ligue 1 (17-15, +2 GD) only stands out due to the rest of Ligue 1’s comparative struggles when playing away from home.