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We have 4 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.
Espanol vs Atletico Madrid – 50pts stake – Espanol are currently 5.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.41, a 24% gap in % terms.
Espanol have a 11pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (498 to 509) – Espanol have come up on our radar a few times recently, beating Alaves and Leganes back to back entering a far tougher proposition this forthcoming weekend. Why do we give them a chance against a team 3rd in La Liga and who have just reached the Champions League semis? Let’s look at the Adjusted Home TR numbers:
Espanol’s Home/Away Adjusted TR split of +258.2 is ranked 1st in La Liga – this means the gap between their home and away performances is the biggest in the league – they play far better at the RCDE Stadium than on the road. Atletico’s away record as well perhaps isn’t the strongest this season, 7-6-3 (23-12, +11 GD) and this could just present an upset opportunity.
Eibar vs Athletic Bilbao – 50pts stake – Eibar are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.71, a 20% gap in % terms.
Eibar have a 100pt Real TR advantage for this one (583 to 483) – We were a bit surprised when we saw the scale of the gap between team ratings for these two given Bilbao’s decent league position, but Athletic have struggled on the road this season (4-2-9, 12-21, -9 GD). With these two teams separated by just 30 miles in the Basque Country though, this very much is a local derby.
It seemed that Eibar were being tipped by our model every week, but this seemed to have stopped in the last couple of weekends as bookies adjusted prices accordingly. Looking at Adjusted TR though, Eibar still rank pretty highly:
While Bilbao’s strong performances have tended to come at home, as can be seen looking at their Adjusted Away TR stat:
Osasuna vs Sporting Gijon – 50pts stake – Osasuna are currently 2.68 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 15.3% gap in % terms.
Osasuna have a 62pt Real TR advantage for this game (454 to 392) – And here’s another Basque side we’re backing in the shape of Osasuna. We’ve backed them the last two weeks – first successfully as they broke their home duck versus Leganes before unsuccessfully backing them at massive odds to beat Atletico away. They’re still needing snookers in the fight to avoid relegation and this is a must win game for them at home to another side in relegation difficulty, Sporting Gijon.
Both sides hold identical respective home and away records, each being 1-5-10. So what gives? For us, it’s the respective difference between their home and away rolling average team ratings:
As you can see, although neither team is ranked particularly highly, there is a significant difference of around 100 points between Osasuna’s home rating and Sporting Gijon’s away rating – and Gijon have only had ONE game this season where they’ve achieved a higher individual game team rating than their opponents away from home (where, er, we tipped their opponents to win. Naturally):
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna – 10pts stake – Deportivo are currently 6.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.12, a 7.9% gap in % terms.
Deportivo La Coruna have a 55pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (471 to 526) – This looks like a bit of a long shot, but these teams aren’t too far apart when it comes to Adjusted TR, with Depor ranked 10th on 484 and Sociedad ranked 6th on 527. Secondly, looking at Sociedad’s recent home record, they’ve taken just five points from their last five home games, a record that is reflected in the Adjusted Home TR stat:
And looking at their individual performances, Sociedad’s quality at home really does seem to have dipped somewhat in the second half of the season: