Category Archives: Spanish La Liga

Spanish Primera Division – 21st April – 24th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 18th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Espanol vs Atletico Madrid – 50pts stake – Espanol are currently 5.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.41, a 24% gap in % terms.

Espanol have a 11pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (498 to 509) – Espanol have come up on our radar a few times recently, beating Alaves and Leganes back to back entering a far tougher proposition this forthcoming weekend. Why do we give them a chance against a team 3rd in La Liga and who have just reached the Champions League semis? Let’s look at the Adjusted Home TR numbers:

Espanol’s Home/Away Adjusted TR split of +258.2 is ranked 1st in La Liga – this means the gap between their home and away performances is the biggest in the league – they play far better at the RCDE Stadium than on the road. Atletico’s away record as well perhaps isn’t the strongest this season, 7-6-3 (23-12, +11 GD) and this could just present an upset opportunity.

Eibar vs Athletic Bilbao – 50pts stake – Eibar are currently 2.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.71, a 20% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 100pt Real TR advantage for this one (583 to 483) – We were a bit surprised when we saw the scale of the gap between team ratings for these two given Bilbao’s decent league position, but Athletic have struggled on the road this season (4-2-9, 12-21, -9 GD). With these two teams separated by just 30 miles in the Basque Country though, this very much is a local derby.

It seemed that Eibar were being tipped by our model every week, but this seemed to have stopped in the last couple of weekends as bookies adjusted prices accordingly. Looking at Adjusted TR though, Eibar still rank pretty highly:

While Bilbao’s strong performances have tended to come at home, as can be seen looking at their Adjusted Away TR stat:

Osasuna vs Sporting Gijon – 50pts stake – Osasuna are currently 2.68 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.9, a 15.3% gap in % terms.

Osasuna have a 62pt Real TR advantage for this game (454 to 392) – And here’s another Basque side we’re backing in the shape of Osasuna. We’ve backed them the last two weeks – first successfully as they broke their home duck versus Leganes before unsuccessfully backing them at massive odds to beat Atletico away. They’re still needing snookers in the fight to avoid relegation and this is a must win game for them at home to another side in relegation difficulty, Sporting Gijon.

Both sides hold identical respective home and away records, each being 1-5-10. So what gives? For us, it’s the respective difference between their home and away rolling average team ratings:

As you can see, although neither team is ranked particularly highly, there is a significant difference of around 100 points between Osasuna’s home rating and Sporting Gijon’s away rating – and Gijon have only had ONE game this season where they’ve achieved a higher individual game team rating than their opponents away from home (where, er, we tipped their opponents to win. Naturally):

Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna – 10pts stake – Deportivo are currently 6.1 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.12, a 7.9% gap in % terms.

Deportivo La Coruna have a 55pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (471 to 526) – This looks like a bit of a long shot, but these teams aren’t too far apart when it comes to Adjusted TR, with Depor ranked 10th on 484 and Sociedad ranked 6th on 527. Secondly, looking at Sociedad’s recent home record, they’ve taken just five points from their last five home games, a record that is reflected in the Adjusted Home TR stat:

And looking at their individual performances, Sociedad’s quality at home really does seem to have dipped somewhat in the second half of the season:

Spanish Primera Division – 14th April – 17th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 11th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Deportivo La Coruna vs Malaga – 10pts stake – Deportivo are currently 2.3 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.8, a 12% gap in % terms.

Deportivo have a 81pt Real TR advantage coming into this fixture (514 to 433) – Depor’s form has been choppy to say the least; having beaten Barcelona 2-1 at the Riazor, they haven’t won in four fixtures since. They sit five points behind a Malaga side whose shock 2-0 home defeat of Barcelona appears to have guaranteed them top flight football for next season. But Deportivo’s Home TR doesn’t look too bad:

Whilst Malaga have a very poor record away from La Rosaleda this season, with a 1-7-8 (13-26, -13 GD) record this time around. They did however record that lone win in their last away outing, defeating relegation threatened Sporting Gijon and also showed signs of improvement prior to this despite losing 0-2 at home to Atletico Madrid.

Sporting Gijon vs Real Madrid – 10pts stake – Gijon are currently 9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5.14, a 8.3% gap in % terms.

Gijon have a 157pt Real TR deficit for this one (407 to 564) – This is certainly the big outside shot of the weekend, but it’s interesting to see that Real, top of La Liga are at what look on the face of things relatively big odds compared to where one would expect them to be in the market. There’s two things to watch out for here, firstly the relative gap between Gijon’s home TR and Madrid’s away TR; Madrid’s away performances this season haven’t been quite as sparkling as you’d expect given their talent loaded side:

An Away TR of 548 isn’t bad, but Real’s mark by comparison was over 700 after 16 games and still above 650 for much of the season. Looking at their individual game TR recently, they haven’t been dominating and have needed to be dug out of the mire by individual brilliance:

Finally, this game is sandwiched between each leg of Real’s Champions League quarter-final with Bayern Munich and it’s possible that they may wish to give less game time to or rest their stars entirely.

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna – 10pts stake – Osasuna are currently 21 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 8.46, a 7.05% gap in % terms.

Osasuna have a 134pt Real TR deficit going into this one (441 to 575) – We tipped Osasuna to beat Leganes last weekend and they delivered their first home win of the season. Ten points off safety with seven to play, they need every bit of luck going for them and it’s certainly a bit of luck to encounter an Atletico side at the Calderon on a weekend sandwiched between two Champions League quarter final legs. One gets the feeling that Atleti are prioritising European competition this season given the heartbreak of their final defeats in 2014 and 2016 and they will be desperate to knock out Leicester and make the semi-finals.

Osasuna may be bottom, but their Adjusted Away TR is surprisingly strong, at 430 and they performed more creditably in their last two away from home against Betis and Alaves.

Leganes vs Espanol – 10pts stake – Leganes are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.92, a 6.6% gap in % terms.

Leganes have a 59pt Real TR advantage going into this one (464 to 405) – We tipped against Leganes last weekend, but back on home turf they’re a different proposition. They’re still fighting against relegation but have the appealing prospect this weekend of hosting a team with very little to play for in Espanol. We’ve also seen an increase in their Average TR of late:

Espanol play far better at home than they do away, with an average away TR of just 352, ranking 19th in La Liga. They have the strongest home/away TR split in La Liga of +289, which is bad news when you’re playing away. Espanol have higher individual game Team Ratings than their opponents away from home in just 3 of their 15 games this season:

Spanish Primera Division – 7th April – 10th April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Friday 7th April. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Osasuna vs Leganes – 50pts stake – Osasuna are currently 3.85 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.09, a 21.8% gap in % terms.

Osasuna have a 34pt Real TR advantage over Leganes heading into this game (447 to 413) – Osasuna are way adrift at the bottom of La Liga, but a 1-0 win at Alaves midweek has given them just a slither of hope. A win at home to Leganes would cut the gap to safety to 10 points and give them a slim chance with seven games to go after the weekend’s fixtures.

Looking at Adjusted TR, there really isn’t much between the two sides:

Osasuna’s record at home this season is terrible (0-5-10, 15-33, -18 GD) but their performances in recent games at home, but they played better than results suggested against Villarreal, Eibar and Athletic Bilbao looking at their individual game Team Ratings and Leganes present a better opportunity than any of those three for a first home win this season:

Celta Vigo vs Eibar – 10pts stake – Eibar are currently 3.25 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.21, a 14.5% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 74pt Real TR advantage going into this one (550 to 476) – Eibar continue to impress in La Liga and have gone four unbeaten, winning their last two at Villarreal and at home to an exciting Las Palmas side. Eibar’s away record isn’t incredible on the face of it but in addition to their win at Villarreal, they’ve won at Valencia and also drew at Real Madrid in October. According to our Adjusted Away TR stat, they’re ranked 4th in La Liga over the past 20 games:

Celta are maddeningly inconsistent and haven’t gone on a streak of more than two wins or losses all season -the highlight of their campaign being a 4-3 home win versus Barcelona in October which was followed up by a 5-0 capitulation at Villarreal. Despite a strong 9-1-4 home record this season (27-20, +7 GD), they’re ranked just 15th on Adjusted Home TR, which suggests that they’re performing badly at home whilst managing to get results, indicating a future downturn.

Villarreal vs Athletic Bilbao – 10pts stake – Villarreal are currently 2.44 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.86, a 12.9% gap in % terms.

Villarreal have a 71pt Real TR advantage entering this match (554 to 483) – 5th in the league, but 8th on Overall TR over the past 20 games, the Yellow Submarine have arguably been over-performers this season. But their opponents going into this are not known for their strength away from the San Mames:

Athletic have just a 4-2-8 record away from home (11-18, -7 GD) and went from September to March without picking up a win on the road before beating Sociedad away (a derby game) and then bottom placed Osasuna (another derby game). Looking at it this way, Athletic haven’t won outside the Basque Country since a win on the 21st September against Granada. Villarreal have picked up a couple of home defeats recently, but Real Madrid and Eibar are stronger outfits away from home than their opponents this Friday night.

Granada vs Valencia – 10pts stake – Granada are currently 3.4 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.43, a 11.7% gap in % terms.

Granada have a 8pt Real TR disadvantage entering this match (412 to 420) – Granada haven’t won in five games and sit seven points off safety in 19th place in La Liga, recently spurning chances to cut that deficit in matches at Sporting Gijon, Leganes and Deportivo La Coruna. So why do we think they can reverse the tide this weekend? The key word is “at” – Granada’s away performances have been shocking all year – they sit bottom of La Primera in Away TR, but perform more credibly at home:

Meanwhile, Valencia may sit comfortably in mid-table but have a 3-3-9 away record this season (19-28, -9 GD) and have a very poor away TR:

Spanish Primera Division – 31st March – 3rd April ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 4 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 28th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Malaga vs Atletico Madrid – 10pts stake – Malaga are currently 5.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.1, a 14.1% gap in % terms.

Malaga have a 64pt Real TR deficit entering this fixture (452 to 516) – Malaga haven’t won in five coming into this one and that run included some teams in the bottom half of the table (Leganes and Real Betis, for example). Atletico meanwhile have won their last three, including a huge win in their quest for Champions League qualification when beating Sevilla 3-1 at the Calderon before the international break. However, you know we don’t like to look at form as the be-all and end-all:

Whilst Malaga are no great shakes, they do possess a decent home record of 6-2-5 (21-19, +2 GD) whilst we believe from our Adjusted TR that Atletico are slight over-performers this season in La Liga. The home side are definitely still the underdogs here, but we do believe they are over-priced.

Real Sociedad vs Leganes – 10pts stake – Real Sociedad are currently 1.75 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.46, a 11.15% gap in % terms.

Real Sociedad have a 164pt Real TR advantage for this encounter (563 to 399) – Sociedad lost two big derbies before the international break against Athletic Bilbao and Alaves and they have the weakest home/away split in Team Rating of any side in La Liga at just +0.7 (Home TR 539.4, Away TR 538.7). That said, on an overall basis they’ve still been very strong this season – they’ve achieved a higher individual game Team Rating than their opponents in 18 of their 28 games this term:

More importantly, Leganes have not performed well away from home at all, being ranked just 19th in Adjusted Away TR and with a relegation battle on their hands.

Valencia vs Deportivo La Coruna – 10pts stake – Deportivo are currently 4.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.39, a 7.3% gap in % terms.

Deportivo have a 15pt Real TR deficit coming into this fixture (491 to 506) – Valencia’s struggles in the first half of the season have dissipated somewhat with wins over Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao in February allowing them to climb the table. But they meet a Deportivo side who have picked up more points on the road this campaign than they have at home (6-3-5 away record, 16-15, +1 GD) and who we tipped successfully to beat Barcelona at home at 13.5, here.

Our metrics also show that Deportivo are significant under-performers this season. They sit 16th in La Liga but 8th on our Adjusted Team Rating metric:

Espanol vs Real Betis – 10pts stake – Espanol are currently 2.22 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.92, a 7.1% gap in % terms.

Espanol have a 61pt Real TR advantage for this match (502 to 441) – Both teams appear to be headed for slightly different qualities of mid-table finish this season, but Espanol’s average home record belies a set of rather more impressive home performances according to our metrics. They are ranked 3rd by Home Team Rating over the last 20 games (20 games overall, which will be between their last 9 and 11 home games):

Whilst both teams are very similar in Adjusted TR overall (Espanol 13th on 466, Betis 14th on 465), this big difference between each team’s respective home and away ratings mean we see Espanol as a relatively marginal value bet here. Both teams are in fairly average form and there’s not much else sticking out here, but this is a game for which our indicators are pretty precise at finding value.

Spanish Primera Division – 17th-19th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 7 home tips and 3 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Tuesday 14th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla – 10pts stake – Sevilla are currently 4.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.96, a 13.3% gap in % terms.

Sevilla have a 11pt Real TR advantage coming into this game (561 to 550) – Sevilla? At 4.9? To beat Atletico? Despite having seen their title challenge effectively ended by two consecutive draws and having been knocked out of the Champions League by Leicester, this still looks a very attractive price.

Looking at our metrics, Adjusted TR shows a fairly significant advantage for the Andalusians:

Sevilla also have the 2nd smallest Home/Away TR split in La Liga. What does this mean? It means that with a 20 game average home rating of 553 and a 20 game average away rating of 518, the 35pt difference is the 2nd smallest in the division – they can play well on the road.

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid – 10pts stake – Athletic Bilbao are currently 5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.14, a 11.85% gap in % terms.

Athletic are 53pt Real TR underdogs here (517 to 570) – Athletic blew away one of our tips last week in beating Basque rivals Real Sociedad 2-0 at the Anoeta and will seek to follow up with a surprise win at San Mames, which has been a fortress for them this season. Athletic have a 10-3-1 record here (25-13, +12 GD), with their only defeat being to Barcelona and with victories over Sevilla, Villarreal and Real Sociedad. This home form is reflected in their Home TR, which at 619 is ranked 4th in La Liga – this is a very good mark:

As you probably know, Real have looked wobbly in the league in recent weeks and have needed the occasional Sergio Ramos winner to paper over some cracks. They’re not quite as dominant away from home as we would expect and this is certainly the sort of game where they’ll be under a lot of pressure. As it’s on Saturday afternoon though, you’ll have to find some sort of stream (don’t tell anyone!) as it won’t be televised in the UK.

Alaves vs Real Sociedad – 10pts stake – Real Sociedad are currently 2.74 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.11, a 10.8% gap in % terms.

Sociedad have a 101pt Real TR advantage over their hosts for this match (583 to 482) – We tipped Sociedad last weekend – that one crashed and burnt as discussed above, so hopefully they can help us out this weekend. This is another derby for them, but fortunately, they’re away from home for this one. Why fortunately? Let’s check that Home/Away Team Rating split stat:

That screenshot tells two stories. Firstly, Sociedad have a home/away TR split of 0.7pts, the smallest in La Liga – their home rating is 539.4 and their away rating is 538.7. Essentially they play as well away from home as they do at home and their record backs that up, with 8 wins and 5 losses this season on the road in the league. Secondly, Alaves aren’t that great at home either in performances, or in results, where they have a home record this season of 3-7-3 (12-18, -6 GD). 2.74 for Sociedad looks rather nice.

Eibar vs Espanol – 10pts stake – Eibar are currently 1.93 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.6, a 10.7% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 124pt Real TR advantage for this one (556 to 432) – heeeeeeeeeere’s Eibar!

Eibar’s form has been a little bit shaky as of late, but whilst they’ve lost four out of their last eleven in the league, these defeats have come against Barca, Real Madrid, Sevilla and Atletico Madrid. They’ve gone unbeaten in their last TEN games against teams in the bottom half of the table. (OK, Alaves are 10th, but you know what I’m getting at).

Enough about Eibar – what about Espanol? Let’s look at their Adjusted TR away from home:

They’re ranked just 19th on that measure – they’ve tended to sneak away wins and get blown out when they lose on the road this season, not a good combination for future performance.

Spanish Primera Division – 10th-13th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 1 away tip this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Thursday 9th March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

(No Eibar this week guys… looks like their rating finally took a hit after their defeat to Real Madrid).

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Bilbao – 50pts stake – Real Sociedad are currently 2.2 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.54, a 19.5% gap in % terms.

Sociedad have a 128pt Real TR advantage for this one (575 to 447) – The meeting of these two sides in the Basque derby has an additional edge this time with both sides gunning for Europe. Bilbao have lost a bit of ground recently with away defeats at Valencia and Sevilla and this has continued an awful run of away form – they haven’t won on the road since beating Granada in September.

Sociedad meanwhile have quietly improved through the season and they are playing at a level befitting a team challenging for the Champions League places. Bilbao’s Adjusted TR rating away from home though, certainly reflects their poor results:

Granada vs Atletico Madrid – 10pts stake – Granada are currently 8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.01, a 12.4% gap in % terms.

Granada have a 101pt Real TR deficit for this fixture (393 to 494) – The Andalusians may have been appalling away from home, but Granada are a slightly more difficult proposition at home. They have an average home team rating of 487 and an average away team rating of 262, the 4th widest home/away split currently of any club in La Liga.

Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid’s performances according to their Adjusted TR metric have fallen recently, which may indicate a potential dip in form coming their way:

Atletico’s style of play under Diego Simeone has sometimes meant their Team Rating lags a little behind what they actually achieve, but it does seem clear this season that they are playing in a slightly lower gear. They are still favourites of course to beat a side like Granada but that doesn’t stop Granada from being a value bet on Saturday evening.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Barcelona – 10pts stake – Deportivo are currently 13.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 5.53, a 10.7% gap in % terms.

Deportivo have a 140pt Real TR deficit for this match against Barcelona – Betting against Barca might appear stupid, but as said on many many occasions we look for value. And Depor may just be value here at 13.5 at home. Their away record has been shocking this season, but they are better at home (4-4-4 record, 17-13, +4 GD) and they’ve put together a three game unbeaten run that was extended with a last minute equaliser at home to Real Betis at the weekend.

Secondly, their Adjusted TR stat suggests that they’ve been under-performing significantly this season. They sit 17th in La Liga but 8th in overall Adjusted TR:

Barca pulled off the mother of all European comebacks in beating PSG 6-1 last night and will be brimming with confidence after that result. But it’s also possible Luis Enrique may just rest a few players after their European endeavours and 13.5 does look awful big.

Malaga vs Alaves – 10pts stake – Alaves are currently 4.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.05, a 10.6% gap in % terms.

Alaves have a 8pt Real TR advantage coming into this encounter (466 to 458) – Malaga have been in poor form recently, losing their last three games; two trips to the Basque Country where they lost to Bilbao and Eibar and also losing at home to Real Betis. Alaves have been in indifferent form themselves, but have seen a recent spike in their Adjusted TR after drawing with Sevilla at the weekend:

Alaves don’t even have a particularly bad record away from home, and have actually recorded more points away from home (18) than at home (16) this season.

Spanish Primera Division – 3rd-6th March ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 4 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Friday 3rd March. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eibar vs Real Madrid – 100pts stake – Eibar are currently 6.6 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.44, a 25.9% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 11pt Real TR deficit entering this game (589 to 600) – Eibar continue to surprise and they now have a real chance of making it into Europe. However, it’s pretty rare we recommend a 100pt bet and even rarer against a side like Real Madrid. Let’s look at why this is:

For a club with a 7,000 capacity ground the fact that the Basque side are doing so well in staggering. But there’s another story as well, involving Real Madrid. Their away performances according to our away-only Adjusted TR metric have declined significantly recently:

It’s set to be a rainy day in the Basque Country tomorrow too and Eibar’s pitch isn’t necessarily the best:

This is still a tough call, but we genuinely try not to “curate” the model too much unless we believe a tip has been generated due to an underlying error – this isn’t the case here. Eibar are very good and Real Madrid’s performances away from home have been declining. They can’t keep pulling themselves out of jams forever as they did against Villarreal and Las Palmas. You can argue about what Eibar’s true odds should be, but we do believe this represents a value bet.

Leganes vs Granada – 10pts stake – Leganes are currently 1.84 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.55, a 10% gap in % terms.

Leganes have a 126pt Real TR advantage for this one (466 to 340) – Now to a game at the other end of the Primera Division. Granada have had a mini revival recently, winning three of their last five, beating Las Palmas, Betis and Alaves. Problem is, these victories have all come at home. They have been woeful away, holding a 0-3-10 record (10-40, -30 GD). Along with Darmstadt in the Bundesliga they’re probably the worst team away from home in any major European league.

This is backed up by their Adjusted Away TR number – rated 285pts, bottom of La Liga:

Leganes are hardly setting the world on fire themselves (we had our fingers burnt when backing them at home to Sporting Gijon, another team who were performing poorly away from home) and we’d be loathe to go big on this. But as a 10pt bet this is OK, despite Leganes poor home record of 2-4-6 (11-17, -6 GD).

Villarreal vs Espanol – 10pts stake – Villarreal are currently 1.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.58, a 7.7% gap in % terms.

Villarreal have a 125pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (554 to 429) – this is a nice easy one to forecast. Villarreal have been slightly better than their league position would suggest at home, whilst Espanol have been significantly worse than their league position would suggest away from home:

The odd thing here though, is that Espanol’s away record on paper isn’t too bad; 4-4-4 (14-18, -4 GD). How’s that? Let’s look at Espanol’s individual team ratings in away games this season:

As you can see, at no point have they played particularly well away from home, and in two of their four away victories they’ve won with a lower final individual game team rating than their opponents. So their away record may look OK, but it’s built on poor performances over a small sample, which we don’t particularly rate.

Athletic Bilbao vs Malaga – 10pts stake – Bilbao are currently 1.84 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.62, a 7.2% gap in % terms.

Bilbao have a 115pt Real TR advantage entering this fixture (535 to 420) – Athletic boss Ernesto Valverde may have been tipped to take over from Luis Enrique at Barcelona, but his Bilbao side are hardly making waves in La Liga just right now, sitting 8th in the table. That said, their woes have largely come on the road and they have made the San Mames a fortress this season, holding a 9-3-1 (24-13, +11 GD) home record:

Malaga, meanwhile, have not won away from home this season. They hold a 0-6-7 (12-25, -13 GD) record away from home and have an Adjusted Away TR of 377, 18th in La Liga. Think this is one we can be fairly confident about.

Spanish Primera Division – 24th-26th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 6 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 15th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eibar vs Malaga – 50pts stake – Eibar are currently 2.06 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.45, a 20.2% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 159pt Real TR advantage entering this game (591 to 432) – Eibar have been tipped several times by us at Betterbet so far this season and have tended to fare pretty well except when facing elite opposition, as proven when they lost 2-0 at Sevilla last weekend. Malaga are not elite opposition. They sit 13th in La Liga and 16th on our Adjusted TR metric:

Eibar are unbeaten in their last eight league games against bottom half of the table opposition and have a strong home record (7-2-3, 19-13, +6 GD). Malaga meanwhile, have failed to win a game away from home this season and by our schedule strength matrix have encountered the second easiest away schedule over the last 20 games in La Liga.

Villarreal vs Real Madrid – 50pts stake – Villarreal are currently 5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 2.65, a 17.7% gap in % terms.

Villarreal have a 36pt Real TR deficit going into this game (557 to 593). I was surprised by Villarreal’s comparatively small Real TR deficit for this one but delving deeper into the stats, Villarreal have the third highest Adjusted TR at home in the division over the past 20 games:

They also have a pretty strong home record (7-3-2, 21-9, +12 GD) having only lost to Valencia and Alaves so far this term at El Madrigal – they haven’t been defeated by any top half team at home so far this season. Real Madrid have been dominant at the Bernabeu this season but this hasn’t quite been the same on the road, they’ve lost to Valencia and Sevilla recently away and another away defeat could really throw the title race back open again.

Athletic Bilbao vs Granada – 10pts stake – Athletic Bilbao are currently 1.48 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.29, a 9.8% gap in % terms.

Bilbao have a 213pt Real TR advantage coming into this match (539 to 326) – Granada sit 19th in La Liga and they definitely deserve to be down in the relegation zone, looking at their Adjusted TR metric:

Their away version of this stat is even worse; they sit 20th on Adjusted Away TR with a terrible score of 279, 93pts behind Betis on 19th with 372. This is backed up by their record on the road so far this season, 0-3-9 (9-37, -28 GD). In fact, we think they’re one of the worst teams away from home in any major European league. Their draws have come at Malaga, Betis and Valencia; none yet against a team in the top half like Bilbao. Whilst Athletic’s form has been patchy of late, they really should have enough to take this one.

Real Betis vs Sevilla – 10pts stake – Real Betis are currently 3.9 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.07, a 7% gap in % terms.

Betis have a 68pt Real TR deficit entering this derby (490 to 558). This one’s a hotly contested derby (and believe me, the rivalry is huge), a factor that our model doesn’t take into account. Both teams’ league positions reflect fairly well their performances according to our algorithm so far this season, but Betis have performed relatively well at home during this campaign:

Betis haven’t won in five and their performances have been somewhat unpredictable – they almost beat Barcelona at home before a late equaliser, but they also lost 4-1 at basement dwellers Granada. Sevilla haven’t quite shown the consistency needed to really put together a credible title challenge despite some big wins, and will be playing this one on three days’ rest after their first leg Champions League win over Leicester City on Wednesday night.

Spanish Primera Division – 17th-20th February ’17 Fixtures

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 2 home tips and 2 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the morning of Wednesday 15th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Sevilla vs Eibar – 10pts stake – Eibar are currently 7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.67, a 13% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 22pt Real TR deficit for this game (549 to 571) – we have three tips priced at 6/1 this weekend in Spain, so each of these is most definitely a value bet rather than a sure thing. We can’t guarantee that any will win.

Eibar continue to impress and the boys from the Basque Country beat Granada 4-0 on Monday night to keep their run going. They face a Sevilla team whose recent wobbles against Espanol and Villarreal have probably cost them their slim chances of winning a league title, but who still are having an impressive campaign.

Eibar’s Adjusted TR is actually above Sevilla’s over the last 20 games, although an 8pt difference is fairly marginal. Of greater importance may be Sevilla’s forthcoming Champions League clash on Wednesday versus Leicester, which may influence the hosts to rest some players.

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna – 10pts stake – Osasuna are currently 7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 3.81, a 12% gap in % terms.

Osasuna have a 28pt Real TR deficit going into this game – Osasuna may still be bottom and have only won once all season, but they have been causing difficulties for teams stronger than Celta recently. They lost at home 3-4 to Sevilla and 3-2 at Real Sociedad and were competitive against Real Madrid at the weekend.

Celta have been showing form typical of a mid table club of late, beating smaller teams whilst losing at Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid. However, our home Adjusted TR measure does show they are relatively weak at home:

Real Sociedad vs Villarreal – 10pts stake – Real Sociedad are currently 1.97 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.69, a 8.5% gap in % terms.

Sociedad have a 105pt Real TR advantage for this fixture (588 to 483) – something slightly shorter in price. The two teams are next to each other in the table, but we think we’ve spotted some value here. The key is in Villarreal’s performances away from home:

Whilst Villarreal have struggled to create chances away from home, they are also pretty parsimonious too – their record is 2-6-2 (8-6, +2 GD) on the road this season. That’s a total goals per game stat of 1.4. Their form has also started to slip a little bit recently, taking just five points from their last five games (playing against Deportivo La Coruna, Valencia, Granada, Sevilla and Malaga).

Sporting Gijon vs Atletico Madrid – 10pts stake – Gijon are currently 7 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 4.79, a 6.6% gap in % terms.

Gijon have a 123pt Real TR deficit heading into this game – Gijon are deservedly in the relegation zone still, but surprised us last week in beating Leganes 2-0 away in a game where tipped…well, Leganes obviously. There are some small crumbs of comfort as to why we think they’re a little over-priced for this one:

While Gijon have the poorest home TR in La Liga, Atletico’s away TR is slightly disappointing given their league position and their away record reflects this, being 4-4-3 (14-9, +5 GD).

Atletico have also played the easiest away schedule in La Liga over the past 20 games, with this schedule meaning their Adjusted Away TR is reduced by 8% as a consequence. This still ranks them 6th in the Primera Division by this metric, but nearer teams like Leganes and Celta than the sides they’ve been battling it out for the title with over the last few years.

Spanish Primera Division – 10th-13th February ’17 Fixtures.

TIPS ABOVE

For more basic info on the model, how it works and the staking plan that we use, please click here. Please take a moment to familiarise yourself with the concepts and terminology behind our model and the tips produced as a result, by checking out that page.

We have 3 home tips and 0 away tips this weekend. Further analysis is provided on four of these games below, if you’d like further analysis on any game, please comment at the bottom of this post. Home win and away win odds are currently taken from Betfair and all odds below are quoted in decimals. The odds referred to below were captured on the afternoon of Tuesday 7th February. I have rounded all team ratings provided below to the nearest whole number – there is not a great deal of difference between 544 & 545, for example.

Weekend tips

Eibar vs Granada – 50pts stake – Eibar are currently 1.55 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.24, a 16% gap in % terms.

Eibar have a 230pt Real TR advantage entering this one (570 to 340) – they keep playing well, they keep getting tipped. Eibar thrashed Valencia 4-0 away at the weekend and have risen to 7th in La Liga.

Granada meanwhile beat Las Palmas 1-0 on Monday night (a game in which we tipped them) but are still five points off safety in La Liga and have the worst overall Adjusted TR in the league and also the worst Away Adjusted TR in La Liga. They have a 0-3-8 (9-33, -24 GD) record away from home:

Real Betis vs Valencia – 10pts stake – Betis are currently 2.5 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.94, a 11.6% gap in % terms.

Betis have a 54pt Real TR advantage before entering this one (489 to 435) – both teams are slightly stumbling at the moment but Valencia are perhaps in a worse state – their mini-revival ended with heavy defeats against Las Palmas and Eibar.

Whilst Betis are not under-performing as such, they are relatively strong at home as can be seen by this Adjusted TR at home stat:

Leganes vs Sporting Gijon – 10pts stake – Leganes are currently 1.8 to win whilst our model forecasts them at 1.63, a 5.7% gap in % terms.

Leganes currently have a 113pt Real TR advantage entering this one (492 to 379). We backed Leganes at Atletico as a real long shot last weekend and it didn’t come off. But we have far more confidence in them for this game hosting Gijon. Leganes have a poor home record, but they’ve been relatively tight at home (1-4-5, 7-15, -8 GD) in comparison to Gijon’s away record of (0-3-8, 7-19, -12 GD).

Our strength of schedule matrix also rates Leganes as having played the 2nd toughest home schedule over the past 20 games (they’ve played everyone in the top half so far with the exception of Real Madrid and Espanol), which means they will play seven teams in the bottom half of the table in their remaining 9 home games.

This disparity means that Leganes’ Adjusted TR is significantly better than Gijon’s overall, as can be seen below: